Champions League Betting Strategies for the Play-offs

Today, we are turning our attention to the Champions League, which is, without a doubt, the pinnacle of soccer club competitions.

This is a tournament where the best of the best from across Europe go head-to-head over the course of months to determine the best team in the continent.

Champions League Betting Strategies Explained

It is a massive competition that brings a lot of money to the clubs involved, but it can also deliver some nice winnings to bettors who know how to wager on this competition.

Before we get into the wagers available for each game, let’s talk about how the format for the Champions has changed this season, as it can have an impact on the odds.

Instead of the group stage that we have become accustomed to over the years, the tournament switched to a single 32-team league for this season.

Each team plays 8 games (4 home games and 4 away), with the top 8 teams automatically moving into the Round of 16.

The teams that finish 9 through 24 in the table go into a playoff to determine the other 8 teams moving on.

This setup changes things in terms of how teams approach games, but we will get into all of that in the second half of this piece.

The road to Munich mapped out 🏆#UCLdraw pic.twitter.com/BbVxl80dhD
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 31, 2025

Champions League Betting Strategies: Wagering on the Games

There are 3 basic bets available for every game played in the Champions League, and even if you are not that up to date on soccer, the wagers are going to look very familiar to those of you who regularly wager on sports.

The 3 wager types are as follows:

Moneyline

This is about as straightforward as it gets, as all you need to do here is pick the winner of the game, but there is a bit of a twist in the tale.

When you wager on soccer, you are going to see a draw option in the moneyline options.

Games can, and often do, end in a draw, and if you can get a handle on those, there is some real money to be made, as the odds for a draw are usually very good.

If we look at the upcoming game between PSG and Brest as an example, PSG is at odds of -270, while Brest is +570 and a draw is +400. PSG is a clear favorite in that game.

Spread

When we talk about the spread, we are talking about the potential margin of victory. In a tournament like the Champions League, where we have a lot of very good teams playing one another, the spread does not tend to be very large.

If we stick with the PSG/Brest game, we see that PSG is favored by 1 ½, which means they need to win by 2 or more goals to cover the spread. If they do, they pay out at odds of -104.

Total

Rather than zeroing on one team, we need both teams to play their part here, as the total is the combined goals by both teams in a single game.

Once again, we are looking at the PSG/Brest matchup, with the total for that one set at 3 ½.

The OVER is at odds of +115, while the UNDER is at odds of -159, which means the bookies believe this one is more likely to have 3 or fewer total goals in this game.

Now that we know the wagers available to us, we need to try and figure out things that can impact on the results and deliver value.

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Champions League Betting provided by MyBookie

Champions League Betting Strategies: Maximizing Value

When looking for value in the Champions League odds, there are several factors that come into play, all of which can change when moving from the league phase to the knockout stages.

In the league games, it’s a one-off chance to get a win, so teams are going to be going all out to get the 3 points, with the home team very often having the edge in front of their own fans.

Things tend to get a little cagier once we get to the knockouts, which are a 2-leg, home and home affair. In those games, the visiting team in the first leg will usually be more than happy to get a draw to head home with, which could in turn mean that we get more of a defensive battle.

When it comes to the 2nd leg, both teams know exactly what they need to do to move on, so look at those 1st leg results and bet accordingly.

When to Bet on the Underdog

A home underdog is always dangerous, as it’s never easy for any team to go on a trip across Europe and come away with a result.Look for teams that tend to be tough to beat in their own building, looking at both the Champions League and domestic league games.

Current form is also important, as we have seen this season with Manchester City. They have been dominant for years, but they are in a real slump right now and are not the slam dunk pick that they have been.

Injuries are also a factor to consider, as a key player or two missing from the lineup can make the odds look very different from what you might ordinarily expect.

In 2-leg games, a team that lost big in the opening game on the road might try to save face at home, while their opponent might well take their foot off the gas, feeling that the matchup has basically been won.

Playing the Total

Oddly enough, this might be the toughest bet of all in the Champions League, but you can use some data to get an idea on how things might play out.

If you look at teams like Liverpool, Arsenal, and Inter, all of whom have surrendered very few goals.

Even against a stronger offensive team, such as Barcelona, the total may still be on the lower side given how good the defense is.

If you see a total of 3 or 3 ½ for those teams, the UNDER could be a very good bet.

Similarly, a top scoring team going against a team at the bottom of the table might well result in a lot of goals being scored and the OVER coming in.

The Champions League playoffs are coming soon, so be sure to keep an eye on the form of the teams involved so that you can make more educated wagers.

League phase stat leaders 📈@FedExEurope | #FedExPerformanceZone pic.twitter.com/lxnG4ImOtN
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) February 4, 2025