Liga MX Odds to Win & Matchday 1 Top Picks for Clausura 2025

In terms of how things work, Liga MX in Mexico is a little different than what we are used to. The biggest difference is that they have two distinct and separate seasons in the course of a year.

We have just seen the Apertura end, which means that the league now resets, and we head into the Clausura.

Liga MX Odds to Win Analysis

Each season is comprised of 17 games, after which we head into the playoffs.

This week sees the return to action after a short break over the holidays, but who will come out on top in this version of the Clausura?

There would appear to be an obvious choice here, but we are going to look at the top 4 teams on the bookies board, after which we will get into the best games in the first Matchday of the 2025 Clausura schedule.

America +250

It doesn’t seem to matter where this team lands in the final standings, as they always seem to come to life when the playoffs roll around. America won the Apertura at the end of last season, which means they have now win 3 straight championships.

hey had to go a more difficult route to win their 3rd straight title, as America finished 8th in the overall standings after 17 games. It was not an easy passage to the final, but they got there, taking out Monterrey over the 2-game Apertura championship. The question now is whether they can make it 4 in a row.

Cruz Azul +550

Other than a decent seeding in the playoffs, there are no real prizes for finishing first in the league after the 17-game season. Cruz Azul is proof of that, as they finished the Apertura season in top spot, but they could not carry that success over into the playoffs.

They looked to have done the hard part with a 0-0 draw in Leg 1 against America, but a 4-3 loss at home in the semi-finals saw their season come to an end. They did finish on top in league play, so they certainly cannot be ignored heading into the Clausura.

Monterrey +650

After winning the Apertura in 2019, Monterrey has had a tough time getting back to the top, but they came very close to making it happen last season. They finished 3rd overall in the league standings, parlaying that into a playoff run that tool them all the way to the Apertura Final.

They gave the defending champions a tough time, but they came up a little short, losing 3-2 on aggregate over the two legs. There is no guarantee of repeated success, but Monterrey proved that they deserve to be among the favorites heading into the Clausura.

Deportivo Toluca +750

Despite being one of the oldest clubs in Mexico, as well as being one of a small number of teams that has never been relegated out of the topflight, Toluca has not seen a lot of recent success. They did make it to the Apertura final in 2022, but they were hammered 8-2 over the 2 games against Pachuca.

There is a sense, though, that this team is close to getting back to the top after finishing second in the Apertura standings. That did not translate to playoff success, but maybe we can expect a little better this time around.

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Liga MX Odds to Win provided by MyBookie

Matchday 1 Top Games for the Clausura 2025

Queretaro +116 vs America +214 Draw +246

Liga MX Pick: Queretaro 0-3 America
Liga MX Spread: America +0.5 (total O/U 2.5)
When: Friday, January 10, 2025, 7:00 PM

The 2025 Clausura season starts on Friday, with 3 games to choose from. We will be covering 2 of those games, starting with the defending champions hitting the road to open things up against Queretaro. It was not a great season for Queretaro, who finished 2nd bottom in the Apertura, winning just 3 games out of a possible 17.

We all know how things went with America, as they won their 3rd straight championship, and you would certainly expect them to get the Clausura off to a winning start here. You have to go back to 2020 to find the last time Queretaro beat America, with 8 games played since that win. This should be a winning start for America.

Tijuana +171 vs Toluca +145 Draw 242

Liga MX Pick: Tijuana 1-2 Toluca
Liga MX Spread: Tijuana +0.5 (total O/U 3.5)
When: Friday, January 10, 2025, 9:00 PM

We have already mentioned that league success does not always carry over into the playoffs. Both of these teams made it into the postseason last season, but both came up short. Tijuana going out was not a huge surprise, as they went into the playoffs as the #7 seed, with their lack of goals catching up to them.

We expected more from Toluca, who finished 2nd in the Apertura, but they too failed to make an impact. Historically, these teams have basically split their meetings, but it is Toluca who has had the best of recent matchups, and while they are on the road here, I like them to get the win.

Monterrey -330 vs Puebla +750 Draw +430

Liga MX Pick: Monterrey 2-0 Puebla
Liga MX Spread: Monterrey -1.5 (total O/U 3.5)
When: Saturday, January 11, 2025, 7:00 PM

There are a couple of different ways to react to losing in the final in the previous season. A team can build on that and go one better, or they can have a bit of a hangover that carries into the next season. That is what we are looking at with Monterrey, who lost to America in the Apertura final last season.

They finished 5th in the Apertura standings, and I would not be surprised to see a higher finish. Puebla finished last season a little too close to the bottom for comfort, but I’m not so sure they will do any better this time around, and I believe they are onto a loss in Matchday 1.

Cruz Azul -295 vs Atlas +730 Draw +390

Liga MX Pick: Cruz Azul 3-2 Atlas
Liga MX Spread: Cruz Azul -1.5 (total O/U 2.5)
When: Saturday, January 11, 2025, 9:00 PM

As we mentioned earlier, it was Cruz Azul who finished at the top of the league in the Apertura, but they could not get past the defending champions in the semi-finals. As disappointed as they will be at how things ended, this is a team that is more than good enough to make another run at a title.

They will open things up at home against Atlas, who finished down in 10th place in the Apertura standings. Mid-table seems to be where they will likely end up again, and I think they will open things up with a loss.

¡Último domingo sin nuestro futbol!👀⚽

Sabemos que ya nos extrañaban, por eso queremos recordarles que ya sólo faltan 5️⃣ días para el inicio del #Clausura2025.😀 pic.twitter.com/WkAWeDUvKn
— Liga BBVA MX (@LigaBBVAMX) January 5, 2025

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2024 Liga MX Odds to Win the Apertura

In terms of the format. Liga MX in Mexico is one of the more unique in world football in that they crown a pair of champions.

The league consists of a pair of tournaments called the Apertura (July – December) and Clausura (January – May). Each team plays 17 games in each of these tournaments before going into the playoffs, which are referred to as ‘La Liguilla’.

My Liga MX Analysis

The top 4 teams are automatically placed in the quarterfinal, with the teams in 4th through 12th, battling out for a spot in the Round of 8.

As the dates suggest, we are coming very close to the end of the Apertura portion of the season, which makes it the perfect time to look at the current odds to win it.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the 3 teams currently sitting atop the bookies board as favorites in the Liga MX Odds to Win the Apertura 2024.

Cruz Azul +124

There is a feeling of unfinished work for Cruz Azul after they lost to America in the Clausura earlier this year.

They have certainly rebounded from that quite nicely and are leading the way at the top of Liga MX with 40 points out of 15 games.

With just 2 games to go before the playoffs, they look set to be in as the top seed.

Through those 15 games, Cruz Azul has scored 36 goals, surrendering just 9 in the process, so this very much looks like a team with very few weaknesses.

The fact that they also made the run to the Clausura Final earlier this year shows that they know how to handle the pressure of the playoffs.

They definitely look like the team to beat.

Tigres UANL +500

As it stands at the moment, Tigres would be in one of the 4 automatic quarterfinal spots, as they are currently sitting down in 3rd overall.

Tigres is sitting on 30 points through 15 games, and given how things look behind them, they probably need one more win from their final two Apertura games to clinch one of those top 4 spots.

This is a team that has been solid on the defensive side of the ball, surrendering just 13 goals in those 15 games, but they have had their struggles on offense, scoring 22 times, which is well off the pace set by the two teams sitting above them.

That lack of offense could be an issue.

Club America +500

This is a team that finds themselves in elite company in that they are one of only three to win back-to-back championships.

They won the Apertura in 2023 before following that up with a Clausura win earlier this year.

If they are to make it to an unprecedented 3 in a row, they are probably going to need to take the long road to do it.

America is currently sitting down in 8th, 4 points back of the top 4, so it does look as though they will need to go through the play-in portion of the tournament.

While that is certainly not the ideal path, this is a team that has proven they know how to win when the pressure is on, so do not count them out.