Liga MX Play-In Futures: Odds, Picks, Expert Analysis

In most parts of the world, club football follows a very familiar setup, which usually ends with the team with the most points at the end of the season crowned as champions.

Things are very different in Liga MX in Mexico, as they crown a champion twice per year.

My Liga MX Analysis

Both the Apertura and Clausura run for 17 games, with the top teams then going into a playoff.

The top 6 earn automatic berths in the quarterfinal, while teams 7 through 10 go into a play-in, with 2 teams moving on to join the other 6.

Teams 7 and 8 meet, with the winner moving on, while the loser plays the winner of the game between 9 and 10.

We are at the play-in stage in the Apertura, with the first 2 games set for Thursday night, so let’s take a look at the matchups and try to make some predictions.

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Liga MX Play-In Futures provided by MyBookie

Chivas -124 vs Atlas +330 (Draw +260)

When: Thursday, November 21, 2024, 8:05 PM
Where: Estadio AKRON, Jalisco, Mexico

The Thursday night games begin with the matchup between the #9 team, Chivas, and the #10 team, Atlas (Clasico Tapatio).

The winner lives to fight another day, while the loser is eliminated and will get some time off before the Clausura begins next January.

🔥 ¡VENGA, ROJIBLANCOOOOS! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/0CXQVKZQTT
— CHIVAS (@Chivas) November 18, 2024

Chivas finished the regular season with 25 points, 3 points ahead of their opponent here, which means they also get the benefit of playing at home in this game.

They scored 24 goals in the regular season and surrendered 5, which is quite healthy for a team that finished where they did in the table.

Atlas picked up points in 4 of their last 5 games, although those were all draws, and finished 4 points ahead of the team just below them. They scored just 17 goals this season and surrendered 23.

“Los Zorros” actually beat Chivas 3-2 on the road when they met earlier this season, breaking a 3-game losing skid against their opponent in this one.

I think they are going to have a tough time winning 2 in a row in hostile territory, which is why I am leaning toward Chivas.

Liga MX Pick: Chivas 2-1 Atlas

Tijuana +208 vs Club America +115 (Draw +270)

When: Thursday, November 21, 2024, 10:00 PM
Where: Estadio Caliente, Tijuana, Mexico

While going to the play-in is not the path that most teams would want to take, there is a benefit for the teams finishing in the #7 and #8 spots in that the loser gets 2 chances to move on to the quarterfinal.

Tijuana finished 7th in the table, picking up 29 points, although they were not totally convincing coming down the stretch, winning just once in their last 5 games.

They did have 3 draws in that stretch, so it was not a total disaster. Tijuana scored 24 goals in 17 games, but they also surrendered 25.

#SOMOSAMÉRICA 🦅 pic.twitter.com/WLgNA3pBlM
— Club América (@ClubAmerica) November 19, 2024

Club America is chasing history, as they look to end the Apertura as champions for the 3rd straight time.

They are, though, going to need to take the long road if they are to deliver the three-peat.

They finished the regular season quite well, winning 3 in a row before losing their final game of the season. America scored 27 times versus 21 goals surrendered.

These teams tied 2-2 when they met earlier this season, with America going 3-1-1 in their last 5 meetings with Tijuana. I think they might sneak the win here.

Liga MX Pick: Tijuana 1-2 Club America

Liga MX Play-In Futures & Odds to Win the Apertura 2024

Cruz Azul +134
Tigres +450
Toluca +600
America +790
Monterrey +800
Pumas UNAM +1050
Chivas +2800
Club Tijuana +3300
Atlas FC +4900

Semanita de Play In 👀.

¿Qué dice la banda?, ¿quién sigue?, ¿quién se va? 🤔

No sean tímidos y dejen sus pronósticos para: @Chivas, @AtlasFC, @Xolos y @ClubAmerica.#Apertura2024 pic.twitter.com/rf85njUoDy
— Liga BBVA MX (@LigaBBVAMX) November 18, 2024