Two of the best teams in Europe throw down on Thursday at the UEFA Nations League Semifinals when Spain takes on Italy. El Rojo will step onto the pitch at De Grolsche Veste in Enschede, Netherlands the favorite. Will the Azzurri come up big and head to the finals? Or will Spain get it done? See below for soccer odds, analysis, and free picks for Spain versus Italy.
Check out UEFA Nations League lines and betting analysis for Spain vs. Italy semifinal match.
UEFA Nations League Semifinals: Spain vs. Italy | MyBookie Soccer Preview
Handicap Odds: Spain -0.5 +124 / Italy +0.5 -157
Money Line Odds: Italy +228 / Spain +130 / Draw +222
Over Under Total: O 2.5 +131 / U 2.5 -168
De Grolsche Veste | Thursday, June 15 at 2:45 pm ET
Why Spain is a Good Bet versus Italy
Based on recent form, Spain is a tough chalk to back. But before declaring the Spanish will go off at underlay odds, it’s important to note that three of Spain’s listed games in their last 5 were at the 2022 World Cup.
The draw with Germany, and the losses to Japan and Morocco happened at the WC. The Spanish dusted Norway in European Championship Qualifying before losing to Scotland. So Spain should be ready to go on Thursday
Spain Last 5
- L – 2-0 vs. Scotland
- W – 3-0 vs. Norway
- L – 0-0 vs Morocco
- L – 2-1 vs. Japan
- D – 1-1 vs. Germany
Spain Predicted Starting Lineup
- Arrizabalaga
- Laporte
- Nacho
- Balde
- Carvajal
- Rodri
- Merino
- Aspas
- Morata
- Gavi
- Olmo
Why the Italy is a Good Bet against Spain
The Italians are playing well. If we throw out the strange 2-0 loss versus Austria, we see an Azzurri side that is stepping it up.
Versus England, Italy controlled possession 58% to 42%. Also, the Italians took 10 shots to England’s 7. The problem the Azzurri had in the match is that of their 10 shots, only 1 was on goal. England took 4-of-10 shots on goal.
The Italians should be more efficient with their shots in this. Bolstered by Italy’s under-20 squad, winning the u-20 World Cup last Sunday, the Italians figure to put forth an excellent effort.
Italy Last 5
- W – 0-2 vs. Malta
- L – 1-2 vs. England
- L – 2-0 vs. Austria
- W – 1-3 vs. Albania
- W – 0-2 vs. Hungary
Italy Predicted Starting Lineup
- Donnarumma
- Romagnoli
- Scalvini
- Emerson
- Di Lorenzo
- Cristante
- Tonali
- Pessina
- Retegui
- Gnonto
- Politano
Final Betting Analysis: Spain vs. Italy
El Rojo figures to be a much tighter group on Thursday than they have been in the past. But Italy is playing better soccer than the Spanish.
The Italians looked great in the 2-0 victory against Malta. The Azzurri controlled possession 69% of the time and took 17 total shots. 6 of the 17 shots were on goal.
Italy’s defense held Malta to 8 total shots and 2 on goal. No doubt, beating Spain is going to be a tougher task to accomplish than beating Malta. But the Italians are playing too well to ignore.
In addition, Spain wasn’t focused in their last, a loss to Scotland. El Rojo may have rested their usual starters, but losing by 2 goals to Scotland isn’t good.
The odds make the Azzurri an overlay. Take a shot on the underdog to get the victory in regulation.
UEFA Nations League Pick: Italy +228 | Bet Spain vs. Italy Today
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