Spain Super Cup Semifinals betting Analysis & Picks 2025

In soccer, there are certain tournaments that have a global appeal, with the English Premier League, the Champions League, as well as major international tournaments, at the top of the ladder.

Outside of those, there are plenty of other tournaments that are much less popular, but that does not mean that they are not worth watching.

Spain Super Cup Semifinals betting Analysis

We have one of those tournaments coming this week, with the Spanish Supercopa set to go in Saudi Arabia starting on Wednesday.

This is a 4-team tournament that will be over in a few days, which makes it the perfect betting event for those who want some quick action.

Brief History

Before we get into the upcoming games, it might be worth taking a quick look at the history of this tournament, as it has gone through several different iterations.

The early predecessor of the tournament we know now started in 1940, running through to 1953 under a couple of different names.

When the tournament returned in 1982, it was a 2-team affair, with the winner of La Liga going against the winner of the Copa del Rey in a 2-game, home and away format.

That format ended in 2018 before returning in 202 with 4 teams in the mix.

It’s the league winner and runner-up, as well as the Copa del Rey winner and runner-up going head-to-head.

It probably comes as no surprise to anyone that Barcelona and Real Madrid have dominated proceedings across all formats.

The Spanish Supercopa Semi-Finals

The semi-finals will take place on Wednesday and Thursday. This will be followed by the 3rd and 4th place game on Sunday and the Supercopa Final on Monday. Let’s take a look at the matchups, the current form, and how these games might play out.

Athletic Club +300 vs Barcelona -125 Draw +280

Super Copa Pick: Athletic Club 0-1 Barcelona
Super Copa Spread/Total: Barcelona -0.5 (O/U 2.5)

The beauty of these games is that they feature 3 of the current top 4 teams in LaLiga so they should certainly be competitive. Athletic Club are currently sitting in 4th place in the league, 7 points out of the top spot.

They have been very good of late, though, and have gone unbeaten in their last 5 league games, winning 4 and drawing the other.

Their biggest issue is a lack of offense, as they have managed just 27 goals this season, although they have surrendered just 17.

It was an incredible start to the season for Barcelona, but they have had a tough time maintaining that pace, with the wheels coming off in recent weeks.

Hansi Flick: ❝Lamine Yamal has been training well. It’s possible for him to play tomorrow❞ pic.twitter.com/h7ZL7NPZt6
— FC Barcelona (@FCBarcelona) January 7, 2025

They also have issues off the field, with their inability to register Dani Olmo as the latest problem to deal with.

Over the last 5 games, they have managed to pick up just 4 points out of a possible 15, which has seen them drop to 3rd in the table.

The good news, though, is that this team has the ability to go on an offensive outburst at any given time.

They are the top scorers in the league with 51 goals, surrendering 22 in the process.

Now that we know what sort of form both teams have been in of late, it’s now time to take a look at their recent head-to-head matchups. This is a matchup that has been dominated by Barcelona, who are 27-8-9 against Athletic Club.

That includes going 3-1-1 in their last 5 meetings. Current form is definitely an issue, but I still think Barcelona are good enough to come away with the win here, although I do think we are in for a low-scoring game that might well be decided by a single goal.

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Spain Super Cup Semifinals betting Lines provided by MyBookie

Real Madrid -265 vs Mallorca +610 Draw +390

Super Copa Pick: Real Madrid 2-0 Mallorca
Super Copa Spread/Total: Real Madrid -1.5 (O/U 2.5)

When you are as successful as Real Madrid has historically been, even the slightest hiccup can be viewed as something worse than it actually is.

When Madrid went out and signed Kylian Mbappé in the off season, the feeling was that they would simply steamroll everyone and win everything.

There has been something of a braking in period for the French superstar, which sent a ripple effect through the whole team.

Madrid got off to a shaky start in the league and the Champions League, but they appear to be back on the right path, going undefeated in 7 games to move back to the top of La Liga.

This very much feels like a mismatch right now, but in one-off games, you just never know how things might play out.

La lista para Arabia Saudí 🛫 pic.twitter.com/d4W4ZujqbY
— RCD Mallorca (@RCD_Mallorca) January 7, 2025

That said, Mallorca is going to need to be a lot better than they have been of late to have any chance of winning this game.

Mallorca is currently sitting in 6th in the table, with 3 wins in their last 5 games, including back-to-back wins ahead of this game, but they have also taken some heavy defeats, with a 5-1 loss to Barcelona the one that probably stings the most.

They have a hard time scoring goals, managing just 19 goals in the league versus 21 goals surrendered.

Again, this is a matchup that has leaned heavily in favor of one team over the other, with Real Madrid going 11-2-2 in their previous 15 meetings with Mallorca. The last 4 meetings have been tight, though, with Madrid going 2-1-1 in those games.

The 3 games that did not end in a tie during that stretch all ended in a 1-0 win, so we might well be looking at another defensive struggle here.

No matter how it plays out, I think it will be Real Madrid that comes away with the win.

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