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On Friday, Serie A power Inter Milano kicks off Matchday 28 as a huge -2 ½ handicap favorite over US Salernitana. Then on Saturday, AS Roma hosts Atalanta. Sunday’s top Serie A match is a battle for first place when Napoli hosts AC Milan. See below for Serie A odds, analysis, and free picks for six of this weekend’s best Italian Serie A matches.

Top Italy Serie A Matchday 28 Games to Wager On (March 4th – 6th)

US Salernitana +2 ½ -149 vs Inter Milano -2 ½ +108

When: Friday, March 4

Inter is a massive home chalk. Based on the last head-to-head, they should be.

The home favorite dusted Salernitana 5-0. But although the game proves Inter is the better squad, Milano doesn’t enter this playing their best soccer. Inter shows 3 draws and a couple of losses in their last 5. Ah, but one of the losses was to Liverpool in a Champions League match. Expect Inter to win this by at least 3 goals.

Soccer Pick: Inter Milano

Atalanta BC +165 vs AS Roma +159

When: Saturday, March 5

Atalanta is back to playing their best soccer. The road team has won 3-of-4 with a draw and a loss. The loss happened on Feb. 20 against Fiorentina.

AS Roma beat Spezia 1-0 in their last. But Atalanta is a much better team than Spezia. So even though the home squad won the last head-to-head via a 4-1 score, backing the road team makes sense.

Soccer Pick: Atalanta

Lazio Rome -103 vs Cagliari Calcio +260

When: Saturday, March 5

It’s so difficult to back Lazio. The road chalk isn’t playing well. Lazio shows a couple of draws and 2 losses in their last 4.

The last time Lazio won a match was on Feb. 12 when Lazio beat Bologna 3-0. Cagliari has won 2-of-5 with 3 draws. The odds on the home team make Cagliari an attractive play. But the draw seems more likely.

Soccer Pick: Draw

Hellas Verona +265 vs ACF Fiorentina -107

When: Sunday, March 6

Both teams show 3 wins in their last 5. The difference is that Hellas Verona beat Venezia 3-1 in their last match.

On Feb. 26, in their last, Fiorentina fell 2-1 to Sassuolo. This could go either way, which is why the road team is an overlay at +265. Hellas Verona is the play.

Soccer Pick: Hellas Verona

Spezia Calcio +1 ½ -103 vs Juventus Turin -1 ½ -133

When: Sunday, March 6

On Feb. 26, Juventus’ newest striking star, Dusan Vlahovic, scored 2 goals in a 3-2 victory over Empoli.

Vlahovic is close to unstoppable, which is why Juve is such a massive handicap favorite. Spezia has lost 3 straight. Not a single loss was by more than a goal. But Spezia didn’t face any team on Juventus’ level. The home team covers.

Soccer Pick: Juventus Turin

AC Milan +235 vs SSC Napoli +113

When: Sunday, March 6

Heading into this match, Napoli and AC Milan are tied atop the Serie A Standings. Both clubs have 57 points.

The winner takes the outright lead. Both teams are in decent enough form to take this. Although Napoli shows a loss in their last 5 and AC Milan hasn’t, the home team’s loss happened to surging Barcelona in a Europa League match.

Also, Napoli has won the last couple of head-to-head matches. But the odds make AC an overlay. So backing the road dog makes sense.

Soccer Pick: AC Milan

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