Super Bowl Betting Analysis: Joe Burrow vs Matthew Stafford

When trying to handicap any NFL matchup, one of the things that I tend to look at is the QB matchup. The reality is that elite quarterbacks are tough to come by, and while most NFL starters are good at their job, there are just some QBs that are that much better than the rest of the group. Heading into the Super Bowl, we have a pair of QBs at very different points in their career. Matthew Stafford of the Rams is a veteran who finally made the move to a competitive team last season, while Joe Burrow of the Bengals is in just his second season as a pro. It’s tough to compare the two given their experience differences, but let’s try and break down some key stats to see who might have the edge this weekend so you can bet against the Super Bowl Odds.

Super Bowl QB Matchup Analysis | NFL Betting

2021 Season Stats

Let’s start by looking at what Stafford delivered for the Rams this season. Over the course of the regular season, Stafford finished the year ranked #3 among active QBs. He wen 404 of 601 for 4,886 yards and 41 TD versus 17 INT. That was enough to give Stafford a passer rating of 102.9. Stafford has actually been better in the postseason, going 72 of 100 for 905 yards and 6 TD versus 1 INT and a passer rating of 115.6.

Joe Burrow made a big impact in his first year in the league before having his season cut short with a horrible injury. There were some concerns about how he would do after recovering from injury, but he was fantastic. In regular season play, he went 366 of 520 for 4,611 yards and 34 TD versus 14 INT and a passer rating of 108.3. In the playoffs, he is 75 of 109 for 842 yards and 4 TD versus 2 INT, which added up to a passer rating of 96.2

Some Other QB Comparisons

Let’s take a look at a couple of areas where Stafford has been better than Burrow this season and then do the same for Burrow. The first edge that Stafford and the Rams get is with the deep ball. This one is close, but Stafford has been slightly more efficient than Burrow in this area, thanks in large part to Cooper Kupp getting open and making big plays. Another area where Stafford has been better is in handling the blitz. This is probably not that surprising given that he has more experience in reading NFL defenses.

One thing that can quickly change momentum is a game is turnovers, so Bengals fans will be pleased to learn that Burrow has been better than Stafford in limiting the number of mistakes he makes. He has still made some questionable calls, but again, this is just his sophomore season. Burrow also gets the edge when playing against different types of coverages. In fact, he has been better than Stafford in this area by quite a wide margin.

Who Gets the Nod?

It is tough to compare these two based on just one full season, and there is a lot to like about both of these guys. Sometimes, it is the intangibles that make the difference, and you do wonder if Stafford’s experience will make the difference this weekend.