Super Bowl 58 Betting Tips: Guide for Better NFL Picks

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We are now just a little over a week away from Super Bowl 58, so it’s time to get serious about thinking how to spend our betting dollars wisely.

We are going to try and help by looking at some tips to help you improve your chances of cashing some winning tickets next Sunday, but before we get to that, we do need to offer up a little disclaimer. While it is fun to wager on a game as big as the Super Bowl, it’s also important that you only wager an amount that you are comfortable losing. There are zero guarantees in wagering, so be sure to set a budget so that the game is still fun even if you come out on the losing end of things. With that in mind, let’s look at a few different NFL betting options and how you might play them.

Early Super Bowl 58 Betting Tips: Guide for Better NFL Picks

Bet Chiefs vs 49ers to Win
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS

Straight Up Wager

This is probably where most people, especially the causal bettors, go, as it’s the most straightforward bet available. The good news is that the bookies have this game as close, so the SU odds for both teams will deliver a decent return if you get it right. The question now is which way you should go with your pick. There are arguments to be made for both teams, but there is a particularly good one for the favorite. If you had played the favorite in every Super Bowl, you would be in profit right now. Again, there is no guarantee that the favorite will win, but history is on your side.

Against the Spread Wager

This one is a little trickier for Super Bowl 58, as the spread is very much on the small side of things, with the 49ers in as a modest 2-point favorite. While it’s not quite a pick ‘em, play, it’s close enough that picking the winner correctly will also probably mean that you cover the spread. Again, if you played the favorite on the championship game over the years, you would be 29-23-2 overall, which would once again have you in profit. Given the nature of the spread in this game, I would be willing to parlay the SU and ATS picks.

Point Total Wager

Of the 3 main wagers, the point total is the one that is perhaps the toughest of all to predict. Teams that make it to the Super Bowl tend to be very well balanced on offense and defense, so it’s tough to know which way things will go. Will it be a shootout or a defensive struggle? The first championship game did not have a point total, but the next 56 are evenly split down the middle at 28-28, giving you an idea of just how tough this pick is. Historically speaking, though, the UNDER has hit in 4 of the last 5, so might that be a clue to this one?

Prop Bets

There are a staggering number of prop bets available for Super Bowl 58, and it is entirely up to you just how involved in them you want to get. I tend to stick to playing the MVP, as that is arguably the most predictable of the bunch. There are exceptions to the rule, but for the most part, it is an offensive player on the winning team, usually the QB, that gets the nod. Again, if you think you have a handle on who will win the game, take their QB as the MVP.

Super Bowl 57 Betting Tips: Is it Better to Do Early or Late Bets?

Every season, Super Bowl handicappers face the same question, should we bet early or bet late? The Super Bowl happens two weeks after NFL Conference Championships, which means we have an entire 14 days to decide on which team we like. But if we bet late, we may miss out on optimal odds. If we bet early, we could miss out on information that could sway us in a different direction. Betting early or late is a conundrum for sure. To help us make a decision, we’ve come up with 3 Super Bowl Betting reasons to bet early and three reasons to bet the Lombardi Trophy game late. 

Super Bowl LVII

• When: Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023
• Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
• TV: Fox

3 Reasons to bet Super Bowl 57 early

1. You like the Eagles and believe the line rises

As of Jan. 31, the Eagles are -1.5 to beat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. So far, 70% believe the Eagles win and cover.

So if you like the Eagles, you should probably bet as soon as possible. Jalen Hurts’ shoulder will only get better and if the trend holds, Philly’s odds should be much worse on game day than they are now. 

2. You believe pro handicappers jump on the Chiefs

Let’s say you don’t like the Eagles but you like the Chiefs. If that’s the case, you may also want to consider betting early. The reason?

KC is at +1.5. So if pro handicappers dump on the Chiefs, and you don’t bet before it happens, KC could become the chalk, and it could be by a wide margin, -2 to -2.5 or even up to -3 depending on how much money.

So if you believe pros go with KC, and you’re going that way as well, back Kansas City at +1.5. before the spread line flips. 

3. You don’t think the line will change much

There’s no reason to bet early if you aren’t leaning towards the Eagles or Chiefs and you don’t believe the line will change much. Wait for injury info the week of before dropping dollars. 

3 Reasons to bet Super Bowl 57 late

1. You want to know where the pro handicappers will land

Pro handicappers wait for public money to push an NFL against the spread line. Then they decide which team to back. For pros, it’s all about value.

So if you want to follow the pros, waiting to see which team they back is the way to go.  

2. You’re a Chiefs fan and aren’t sure about Patrick Mahomes injury status

If you like the Chiefs to win Super Bowl 57, one thing is top of mind, what’s the status of Magic Mahomes’ ankle? Patrick led KC to a victory over Cincinnati on one foot.

Providing the same performance against the Eagles could be tough. Waiting to see Patrick’s injury status means betting late. 

3. You like the Eagles but you believe more money will go towards KC the closer we get to kickoff

Let’s say you like the Eagles. But you also believe people aren’t backing the Chiefs just yet because everybody is wondering about Mahomes’ ankle.

If that’s the case, and you believe Patrick will be okay, it makes sense to wait. The more money that lands on the Chiefs, the better your odds as an Eagles’ backer. So waiting for pros to dump on KC before betting makes sense.