Favorites to reach the quarter-finals of the UEFA Nations League

Matchday 1 of the Nations League is in the books, with Matchday 2 about halfway done, too.

While there are still a ton of games to be played, we are already seeing each of the 4 groups in League A starting to take shape.

My UEFA Nations League Analysis

The top 2 teams in each group will move on to the knockout phase of the tournament as we look to crown a champion.

There are some definite favorites emerging, but who will move on, and who will win it all?

Those are questions that we are going to try and answer here, so let’s take a look at the current state of the groups as we look to make some predictions for the Nations League.

Group 1 UEFA Nations League

It is Portugal that has the lead here, winning both games to start their campaign, although they had to come from behind and rely on a late winner from Ronaldo to get past Scotland in Matchday 2. They look set to win the group.

Croatia needed a win in their second game after losing to Portugal, and they got that with a win over Poland, who had previously beaten the Scots.

I would have to say that Portugal and Croatia look the most likely to move on, with Portugal definitely in the mix to win it all.

Group 2 UEFA Nations League

The surprise of the group to this point is Italy beating France in Matchday 1. They rebounded from losing a goal inside the opening minute to take a commanding 3-1 over France.

Belgium also got off to a winning start with a comfortable 3-1 win over Israel.

I expect Italy to move to 6 points when they face Israel, and I think it’s fair to suggest that Belgium would settle for a draw in their Matchday 2 game against France.

I think it will be Belgium that finishes top of the group, with Italy and France battling it out for the #2 spot.

Group 3 UEFA Nations League

Of the 4 groups in League A, I would suggest that this one looks to be the clearest cut of all. Germany was rampant in Matchday 1, trouncing Hungary 5-0 to immediately move to the top of the group.

The Netherlands had a battle on their hands against Bosnia, but they prevailed, winning that one by a score of 3-2.

I think the winners in Matchday 1 are about as close to a lock as it gets to move on, with Germany and Netherlands likely to battle it out for top spot. I think Germany are a decent bet to win it all.

Group 4 UEFA Nations League

Another small surprise in this group, with Denmark winning both of their opening games to take 6 points and the lead at the top of Group 4. That said, their next game will come against the European Champions, Spain.

Spain was something of a surprise in their opener, having to settle for a draw with Serbia, but they turned that around quickly with a 4-1 win over Switzerland, despite playing a large portion of the game with 10 men.

I think it will be Spain that eventually finds their way to the top, with Denmark taking the other spot. I also like Spain to win the whole thing.

UEFA Nations League Odds to Win for Top 5 Teams

Spain +350
Portugal +550
Germany +560
France +610
Italy +790

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UEFA Nations League Odds to Win 2024

The week sees the start of the UEFA Nations League for the 2024-25 season, coming rather quickly on the heels of the European Championship and the start of the domestic season in Europe.

Modern players don’t really get much in the way of time off anymore, and while some see that as a problem, most fans are just happy to have more football to watch.

My Analysis

If you don’t know much about the Nations League, it is a tournament that is split into 4 distinct leagues, with promotion and relegation part of the tournament.

The 16 teams in League A will be competing to move into the knockout phase, which is a little different this time around, all with the goal of becoming the Nations League champion.

This is the 4th season of the Nations League, and we have had 3 different winners. Who will win it this season? Let’s take a look at the current odds.

France +300

France are one of the 3 teams to have won the Nations League, and they are in as the favorite to become the first team to win it twice.

You cannot deny the talent available in the French squad, but if they perform as they did at the European Championship, I don’t hold much hope of them winning this tournament.

It certainly didn’t help that Kylian Mbappe missed part of the tournament with a broken nose, but even when he played.

France did not look great. That said, they should be in the hunt.

Spain +580

I am a little surprised that the European champions are not in as the favorite to win it all, especially when you consider how good they looked on their way to winning the European Championship.

One the face of it, is looks as though Spain, who are also the defending Nations League champions, have a very manageable group, with Serbia, Switzerland, and Denmark their opponents.

I think they will easily move into the knockout phase, where they will almost certainly be the team to beat.

It’s hard to win tournaments on a regular basis, but Spain looks equipped to do it.

Germany +600

There were some issues for Germany over the past couple of years, but they appear to have turned a corner after the European Championship, which was played on home soil.

Serving as the host delivers an advantage, but it also adds a unique level of pressure that makes things tough.

The Germans cruised through the group stage before eventually falling to the eventual champions, Spain.

Germany will open this tournament against a Hungary team that they beat at the Euro’s, so expect them to get off to a winning start in what could easily be a run to the semi-finals.

Portugal +690

You cannot mention Portugal without talking about Cristiano Ronaldo, but how much longer is that conversation going to last?

Ronaldo is still banging in the goals in the Saudi league, but he was something of a non-factor at the European Championship and has hinted that his international career might be over sooner rather than later.

Even without their star player, Portugal is still a very good team and a former Nations League winner.

That said, I am not convinced that they can go all the way this time around.