This has been a strange kind of season in the WRC, mostly because we have 2 of the top drivers racing on a part-time basis.
Both Kalle Rovanpera and Sebastian Ogier are only running in selected races, and while both are winning, neither of them are at the top of the championship standings.
Today’s Rally Finland Top 4 Favorites | |
1. Kalle Rovanpera | 86 points | |
2. Ott Tanak | 137 points | |
3. Sebastian Ogier | 117 points | |
4. Elfyn Evans | 132 points |
My Analysis
There are now just 5 races to come this season, so it is going to be interesting to see how things play out.
Both of the part-time drivers will be starting this weekend in Finland, which is reflected in the current odds.
Let’s take a look at those odds as we try to make some winning predictions for the WRC Secto Rally Finland.
^Kalle Rovanpera
If you are looking to wager on a driver in a hot run of form, you need to take a look at Rovanpera this weekend.
He has only raced 5 times this season, but he already has 3 wins, including victories in each of the last 2 rallies.
He will be looking to make it 3 in a row while racing in his home country. He will be looking to make amends for his showing in this race last season, when he was forced to retire.
Furthermore, he did, though, finish 2nd in Finland the year prior, and given his current form, he is a solid bet to land in the top 3, although 3 straight wins seem like a tough ask.
^MyBookie Rally Odds & Lines to Win
Ott Tanak
The battle for the championship is tight, with just 13 points separating the top 3 drivers.
Tanak is wedged in the middle of that group, sitting in 2nd, a mere 7 points out of the top spot.
He could potentially take the lead this weekend if he can repeat his performance in Finland from a couple of seasons ago, which is when he last won this rally.
He was forced to retire from this race last season, but I think he will bounce back in a big way.
I think it may be worth taking a risk on him to win, but I think a top 3 finish is a safer way to play that could reap dividends.
^Sebastian Ogier
Given what he has done in his time with the WRC, you can never count out Ogier, as he is always a good bet, even when he is racing on a part-time basis.
To this point in the season, Ogier has started 5 races and has not finished worse than 2nd in those runs, which includes a pair of wins.
Even though he is part-time this season, Ogier is very much in striking distance of a championship, sitting just 28 points out of first.
He seems like a definite top 3 pick this weekend.
^Elfyn Evans
Evans is another driver that still has a shot at winning the WRC Championship this season.
He is currently down in third and within striking distance of the lead, sitting 13 points back of Thierry Neuville on top.
The problem that Evans has is that he has yet to win a race this season, landing on the podium 4 times.
The reason that he is so close to the top is that he has managed to finish every single race, which means consistently picking up points.
He won in Finland last year, but I think he finishes off the podium this weekend.
^Bet Rally Finland Odds
When: Wednesday, July 31–Sunday, August 4
Where: Finland
TV / Streaming: Rally.tv
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2023 Rally Finland
There comes a point in every season, regardless of the sport in question, where the outcome starts to look inevitable. We have reached that point in the 2023 WRC season, with the lead at the top of the driver standings beginning to look more than a little insurmountable. There are, though, still 5 races to come, but you do have to wonder if anyone can come from off the pace to make a late run that would undoubtedly have to go down as an upset considering how things look at this late stage of the proceedings. This weekend, the drivers will be in Finland for the next rally on the schedule. Can someone take control here, or will be looking at things staying as they currently are? Let’s take a look at the current standings to consider in your WRC Rally betting odds.
2023 WRC Secto Automotive Rally Finland Analysis and Preview | WRC Betting Picks by MyBookie
When: August 2 to 6
Where: Finland
Streaming/TV: WRCplus.com
Kalle Rovanpera
If you want to talk about consistency over the course of a long season, Rovanpera should be the first name out of your mouth. Through the 8 races that have already been run in 2023, Rovanpera has not finished any worse than 4th. It took him a moment to get his first win of the season, which, he managed in Portugal, but he quickly followed that up with another victory in Estonia, which was the most recent race on the WRC calendar. Overall, he has amassed 170 points, which has him 55 points up on the closest driver. Another win and this thing might be over. Rovanpera finished 2nd in Finland last year, so expect him to be in the mix.
Elfyn Evans
Realistically, there are really only 2 other drivers who have any type of shot at making the final few weeks of the season interesting in terms of the championship race. Evans is the closest to the leader, but as we mentioned earlier, he needs to make up 55 points over the next 5 races. Not only would he need to be as close to perfect as possible, he would also need Rovanpera to suddenly go cold. Evan does have a win this season, with that one coming in Croatia, but being forced to retire in Portugal hurt his cause. Evans won this rally in 2021, so don’t count him out this weekend.
Thierry Neuville
Neuville might well be the most likely challenger had he not been disqualified in Kenya a couple of races back, but he still has to be considered in the hunt for the championship. He finished 2nd in the race prior to the Kenyan Rally, and then failed to let the DQ bother him, as he ran out the winner in Estonia last time out. He is now on 112 points, just 3 back of Evans, but like the Welshman, he has some work to do if he is to put any pressure on the leader. Neuville finished 5th in Finland last season and will need better if he is to stay in the championship picture.
Ott Tanak
While technically still in the hunt, Tanak is sitting 66 points off the pace, which really does seem like a bridge too far at this late stage of the season. He did have a win in the early part of the season, but he has not really been much of a factor since then. Perhaps most disappointing was an 8th place finish in the Estonia Rally last time out, as we expected more from him on home soil. Don’t count him out here, though, as he did win in Finland last year.
I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?
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