Bills vs Jaguars: Monday Night Football Odds, Picks & Analysis

The first of two staggered-start Monday Night Football games at 7:30 p.m. ET is from the AFC as the winless Jacksonville Jaguars visit the unbeaten Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen & Co. as 5.5-point favorites on the NFL odds.

Jacksonville vs Buffalo MNF: 2024 NFL Expert Analysis

Opening NFL Lines Subject to Change: Bills -5.5 (total 45.5)
Expert Prediction: Bills 27, Jaguars 24

Why Bet on Jacksonville?

The Jaguars have not looked good at all offensively yet in an 0-2 start and come off an 18-13 home loss to Cleveland. Trevor Lawrence got a huge contract extension this offseason and hasn’t justified it yet. He completed 14 of 30 passes for 220 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, adding two rushes for 45 yards against Cleveland. He had only 16 yards at halftime, and each of his six passes of 20 or more yards came after the team trailed by two possessions.

Travis Etienne

Etienne rushed the ball 13 times for 52 yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions on four targets for six yards. Etienne accounted for 13 of the 19 carries recorded by Jacksonville’s skill-position players, in part due to the mid-game departure of Tank Bigsby (shoulder). Bigsby is questionable for Monday. Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram missed Week 2 injured and is out again. Second-year player Brenton Strange started in Engram’s place against the Browns and set career highs in catches (three) and receiving yards (65). He will fill the same role against the Bills. Safety Darnell Savage is questionable after missing Week 2.

Christian Kirk

The receiver — who has 1,924 yards receiving with the Jaguars since 2022 — was targeted just seven times in two games this season, a number that coach Doug Pederson and Lawrence said is unacceptable. He has averaged seven targets per game the past two seasons. “Got to get him going this week, and I’ve got a lot of trust and faith that it will get going this week,” Lawrence said.

The Jaguars rank 26th in the NFL in points (15.0) and 22nd in yards (295.0) and the offense’s struggles on third downs have defined the season to date. The Jaguars have converted five of 19 third downs this season, running 50 offensive plays against the Dolphins in a Week 1 loss and 55 against the Browns.

Press Taylor

“That’s not enough,” offensive coordinator said. “We haven’t had enough snaps because we’re not converting enough on third down to begin with. We need to be in [the high 80s], and then that gives you more opportunities to spread the ball around, more touches, get a little bit more rhythm across the board.”

OC Press Taylor & DC Ryan Nielsen meet with the media.#DUUUVAL https://t.co/CcMVQNQiLo
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 20, 2024

The Jaguars have allowed 20 and 16 points in the first two games, with two points against Cleveland coming on a late safety. That’s good enough to win. But great defenses force turnovers and this defense hasn’t forced one yet.

The Record

Since Week 13 of last season, the Jaguars are tied with the Panthers for the worst record in the NFL (1-7) entering Week 3. Five of those losses were by one score (eight or fewer points).

Jacksonville holds a record of 8-8 on Monday Night Football, while Coach Doug Pederson has a record of 5-3. This marks the first time the Jaguars will play on Monday night in back-to-back seasons since 2010 and 2011.

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Bills vs Jaguars MNF Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Why Bet on Buffalo?

Buffalo has been off since winning impressively 31-10 in Miami on Thursday in Week 2. Josh Allen completed 13 of 19 passes for 139 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions while adding two carries for two yards. James Cook and the defense did a lot of the heavy lifting for the Bills, although Allen had a hand in Cook’s first of three touchdowns on the night by connecting with him on a 17-yard scoring pass in the first quarter. Otherwise, Allen focused almost all his attention on Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, who were on the receiving end of nine of the quarterback’s completions and 87 of his passing yards.

James Cook

Cook rushed 11 times for 78 yards and two touchdowns and secured his only target for a 17-yard score. The third-year back opened the scoring with a 17-yard touchdown reception to cap off Buffalo’s opening possession, and he added scoring runs of one and 49 yards in the second quarter. The fact the Bills already had a two-touchdown lead by halftime allowed head coach Sean McDermott to take it easy on Cook in the second half, with rookie backup Ray Davis nearly matching him in carries (nine) by night’s end. Cook has 149 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards through two games.

The Bills have favored the run game on offense through two weeks. Buffalo has run 103 plays to start the season – 42 have been pass attempts and 59 have been rushes. That means the Bills have run the ball on 57% of their plays to start the season. The Jaguars have allowed an average of just 3.8 yards per rush (7th lowest) and 19 points (tied for 8th lowest) per game to start the season.

Injuries

The Bills will be without starting nickel corner Taron Johnson (forearm) and middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) for this matchup. Bernard could miss about a month but the injury is not believed to be season-ending. It’s a tough blow to a Bills defense that underwhelmed in Week 1 but terrorized the Dolphins in Week 2. Bernard had 10 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 143 total tackles in 2023.

While the defense played well in Week 2, even after Bernard went out during the game, how the unit will perform against the Jaguars will be a test. When the teams faced off last season, Jags RB Travis Etienne rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns, including a 35-yard rushing touchdown. Baylon Spector filled in against the Dolphins for Bernard and will get the start against the Jaguars. After Bernard was injured in the first quarter against Miami, Spector did not miss a beat on defense as he tallied 10 total tackles, tying for the team lead.

“I just think you just look at the guys that have come and done it,” Spector said. “I mean, you stay ready, you stay preparing, you look at the guys that have done it – J-Marc, Cam, me, I mean, it continues to go on. I think the guys before us set a great example, they were ready, and then you learn from that, and you keep going.”

Buffalo has had success against Jacksonville at home in the recent past. The Bills have won the last three games against the Jaguars at Highmark Stadium dating back to 2012.

Predicting Tonight’s Inactives…

▪️Terrel Bernard (injury)
▪️Taron Johnson (injury)
▪️Edefaun Ulofoshio
▪️Javon Solomon
▪️Ryan Van Demark #BillsMafia | #GoBills pic.twitter.com/Dvl5HJukJd
— Air Raid | Buffalo (@TheBillsGuys) September 23, 2024

Bills vs Jaguars MNF Info

When: Monday, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Highmark Stadium
TV: ESPN
Radio: ESPN radio
Stream Option: ESPN+

Bills vs Jaguars Series History

It’s the 20th all-time meeting including playoffs and the Jaguars lead 10-9. They won the most recent meeting in Week 5 last season in London, 25-20. Travis Etienne rushed for 136 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns. He also caught four passes for 48 yards. Josh Allen was 27 of 40 for 359 yards and two touchdown passes and an interception in the loss.

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2023 Jaguars vs Bills

Week 5 of the National Football League brings us an exciting showdown as the Jacksonville Jaguars face off against the Buffalo Bills, with the unique twist of this game being played in London.

The Jaguars enter their second consecutive game in London following a victory over Atlanta, bringing their season record to 2-2 and tying them for second place in the AFC South.

On the other hand, after stumbling in their first game of the season, the Buffalo Bills have found their groove with three consecutive wins, including a resounding victory over the Miami Dolphins in their last outing.

The Buffalo Bills are the favorites in this game. Buffalo is listed at -5.5, and oddsmakers are listing 44.5 as the total.

MyBookie offers the game prediction plus NFL betting lines, analysis, along with a free pick for Jacksonville Jaguars versus the Buffalo Bills which are playing on Week 5 of the NFL season.

Jaguars vs Bills Betting Prediction: Get Your NFL Odds for the Game | MyBookie NFL Week 5 Regular Season Preview

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills | NFL Week 5
ATS: Bills -5.5
Money line: Jaguars +200/ Bills -250
Over/Under: 44.5

Sunday, October 8th, 2023 at 9:30 am ET | NFL net
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

High Powered Buffalo Bills Offense

The Buffalo Bills boast one of the most potent offenses in the National Football League, averaging just shy of 35 points per game, trailing only the Dolphins in NFL Team Stats. Buffalo made a decisive statement by halting the Dolphins’ momentum in Week Four.

Quarterback Josh Allen is delivering an outstanding performance this season, having thrown for over 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns. The connection between Allen and Stefon Diggs remains strong, as evidenced by Diggs’ three touchdown receptions in the win over the Dolphins.

Diggs is nearly hitting the 100-yard mark per game and has four touchdowns in four games. James Cook leads Buffalo’s rushing attack, amassing 296 yards and a touchdown this season.

The Buffalo Bills maintain strong odds to clinch the AFC East, the AFC title, and even the Super Bowl.

Lawrence Looking to Quick Improvement

Despite recent losses to Kansas City and Houston, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars remain the favorites to secure the AFC South.

Jacksonville ranks 11th in the league with 229 passing yards per game and 19th with 100 rushing yards per game. The Jaguars are eager to revitalize Travis Etienne’s performance, as he is averaging just 3.8 yards per rushing attempt.

One notable highlight in Jacksonville’s London game was the first touchdown, snagged by Calvin Ridley. This marked a revenge game for Ridley, who launched his career with the Falcons. Ridley leads the team with two touchdown receptions and consistently records over four receptions per game.

Upcoming for Jacksonville is a rematch against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, followed by a short week leading up to Thursday Night Football against the Saints in Week 7.

Bills Smash Jaguars Over the Pond

The Buffalo Bills currently find themselves in control, with Josh Allen reasserting himself as an elite quarterback after a shaky start to the season.

Expect Allen to make amends for last season’s performance against Jacksonville when the Bills take the field in London.

While the Jaguars have the advantage of spending the week in London, the Bills are undeniably superior. Buffalo is poised to secure their fourth consecutive victory in this matchup.

When betting on this Week 5 clash in London, consider taking the Buffalo Bills with a -5.5 point spread over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

NFL Week 5 Pick: ATS Bills -5.5 | Bet Jaguars vs Bills
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Jacksonville Jaguars Last 5

Date	OPP	Result
10/1/23	vs ATL	W23-7
9/24/23	vs HOU	L37-17
9/17/23	vs KC	L17-9
9/10/23	@ IND	W31-21
8/26/23	vs MIA	W31-18

Jacksonville Jaguars Injury Report

Name \| Position	Status	Date
Zay Jones WR	Questionable	Oct 4
Josh Allen LB	Questionable	Oct 4
Folorunso Fatukasi DT	Questionable	Oct 4
Jamal Agnew WR	Questionable	Oct 4
Parker Washington WR	Doubtful	Oct 4

AFC South Standings | Jacksonville Jaguars

Team	W	L	Strk
Indianapolis Colts	2	2	L1
Houston Texans	2	2	W2
Jacksonville Jaguars	2	2	W1
Tennessee Titans	2	2	W1

Buffalo Bills Last 5

Date	OPP	Result
10/1/23	vs MIA	W48-20
9/24/23	@ WSH	W37-3
9/17/23	vs LV	W38-10
9/11/23	vs NYG	L22-16 OT
8/26/23	vs CHI	W24-21

Buffalo Bills Injury Report

Name \| Position	Status	Date
Christian Benford CB	Questionable	Oct 4
Damien Harris RB	Questionable	Oct 4
Dawson Knox TE	Questionable	Oct 4
Jordan Poyer S	Questionable	Oct 4
Greg Rousseau DE	Questionable	Oct 4

AFC East Standings | Buffalo Bills

Team	W	L	Strk
Buffalo Bills	3	1	W3
Miami Dolphins	3	1	L1
New England Patriots	1	3	L1
New York Jets	1	3	L3

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

Buffalo’s ATS record is 3-1-0 this season.
The Bills have covered every time (2-0) as a 5.5-point favorite or greater this year.
Two of the Bills’ four games have hit the over.
The Jaguars have won twice against the spread this year.
Buffalo has gone over in two of four games with a set total (50%).
The visiting team is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in this matchup.
The total has gone over in the Jaguars’ last four games against the Bills.
The Bills are 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after winning as an underdog.

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