2024 March Madness Odds: Favorites/Upsets Before Sweet 16 Games

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The 2024 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament got under way on Tuesday night. Wagner outlasted Howard and now heads to the West Region to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. Colorado State blasted Virginia out of the building and will throw down against Texas on March 21.

With a day before the first round, the NCAA Tournament is still ripe for handicapping.

Check out the top favorites and upsets in each region as we barrel towards the 2024 March Madness Tournament.  

2024 March Madness Picture: Favorites/Upsets Before Firts Round Games | College Basketball Betting Analysis for the NCAA Tournament

2024 March Madness | 85th edition of the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament
Tuesday, March 19th – Monday, April 8th, 2024

March Madness Picture: Top Favorites and Upsets

East Region

Favorites

1-UConn Huskies
2-Iowa State Cyclones
3-Illinois Fighting Illini

East Region Favorites Pick: 1-UConn Huskies

For being the overall top seed, UConn faces two potential quality clubs in the Iowa State Cyclones and the Illinois Illini. The Illini lost just 8 games this season. A deeper dive reveals 3-of-8 losses came against the three best teams they played, Purdue, Marquette, and Tennessee.

So Illinois isn’t a great play to upset UConn. Neither are the Iowa State Cyclones. The Cyclones are hot after winning the Big 12 Tournament in a stunning blowout victory over the Houston Cougars. Still, Iowa State could bounce in this tournament and their second round game, likely versus Washington State, won’t be an easy out.

The Huskies won their first Big East Tournament title since 2011. If anything, Dan Hurley’s team heads to the tournament more focused than it was last season when it won it all. Give the Huskies the East.

Top East Region Upset Play: 5-San Diego State Aztecs

Last year’s Cinderella has a shot of putting back on the glass slipper. San Diego State made it to the NCAA Championship after beating Florida Atlantic in the Final Four. Beating UConn wasn’t going to happen, but the Aztecs got there and it was a huge accomplishment.

SDSU may not be as good this season. However, they are experienced and if they can upset UConn early, who knows?  

East Region
Favorite Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels | Odds for College Basketball MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

West Region

Favorites

1-North Carolina Tar Heels
2-Arizona Wildcats
3-Baylor Bears

West Region Favorites Pick: 1-North Carolina Tar Heels

Two bluebloods, Arizona and North Carolina, and one up and coming blueblood should rule the show out West. Baylor hung with the top teams in the best conference in the nation, the mighty Big 12.

The Bears are good enough to win the West. However, they’re likely to run into the Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16. That won’t be an easy win. Even though Zona lost 2-of-3 heading into the tournament, Tommy Lloyd’s team has a go to player in Caleb Love, one of the top bigs in the nation in Oumar Ballo, and a bevy of players that can hit the three, play defense, and distribute the ball.

Arizona should cruise to the Elite 8 where they will fall to the North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC is as solid of a team as any in the NCAA Touranment. The Heels bring a Big Thee in R.J. Davis, Elliott Cadeau, and Armando Bacot that rivals any team in the tourney. Davis and Bacot are on a mission and Hubert Davis has the Heels playing lights out even with the ACC Tournament Final loss to rival NC State.

Top West Region Upset Play: 12-Grand Canyon Lopes

Don’t sleep on the Lopes. Grand Canyon went 29-4 during the regular season and boasts a pair of excellent guards in Tyron Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison.

Grant-Foster and Harrison spearhead an offense that averages 80 points a game. As a team, GCU shoots 34.4% from three. If the Lopes catch you napping, they will make you pay.

West Region
Favorite Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels | Odds for College Basketball MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

South Region

Favorites

1-Houston Cougars
2-Marquette Golden Eagles
3-Kentucky Wildcats

South Region Favorites Pick: 1-Houston Cougars

The Cougars have a likely tough matchup in Round 2 against Texas A&M or Nebraska. But if Houston can get by the Aggies or Huskers, they should cruise to the Elite 8.

The 2 and 3 seeds in the South Region have issues. Marquette may play the entire tournament without their top player Tyler Kolek. If Kolek can’t go, the Golden Eagles won’t fly.

Kentucky played great basketball down the stretch, but the Wildcats are inconsistent. John Calipari’s bunch fell to LSU 75-74 and Texas A&M 97-87 in the second half. Also, in recent tournaments, the Wildcats just haven’t shown up the way the used to in the past.

So the Cougs will make it to the Elite 8. However, once they get there, they will struggle against the top upset pick in the region, the Florida Gators.

Top South Region Upset Play: 7-Florida Gators

Not counting the SEC Tournament Final loss to Auburn, Florida went a fantastic 13-4 down the stretch. The Gators boast an electric three guard lineup in Walter Clayton Jr., Zyon Pullin, and Will Richard. Riley Kugel, another guard, averages 9 points. So if you like your NCAA Tournament teams to have great guards, Florida is your team. Also, the bottom half of the bracket favors Florida, with Kentucky’s inconsistency and Marquette’s injury to Tyler Kolek’s oblique injury.

South Region
Favorite Pick: Houston Cougars | Odds for College Basketball MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

Midwest Region

Favorites

1-Purdue Boilermakers
2-Tennessee Volunteers
3-Creighton Bluejays

Midwest Region Favorites Pick: 3-Creighton Blue Jays

Purdue was the most consistent team during the regular season. The National Player of the Year, it’s only a matter of when they make the announcement, plays for the Boilermakers. Still, even with Zach Edey, Purdue is a tough bet to win the Midwest.

Braden Smith, Fletcher Lloyd, and Lance Jones are talented players. But the three guards will face strong guard play in either Tennessee or Creighton. Of the two squads that are likely to take down Purdue, the Blue Jays are the pick.

There’s nothing wrong with Tennessee. Creighton, though, boasts two of the top players in the nation in guard Baylor Scheierman and center Ryan Kalkbrenner. The Blue Jays’ inside and outside game will cause headaches for every team they face. Also, Creighton has experience having almost made it to the Final Four in 2023.  

Top Midwest Region Upset Play: 8-Utah State Aggies

Utah State’s last couple of losses have come against Colorado State, who dominated Virginia in the First Four, and San Diego State in the MWC Tournament.

The Aggies won the Mountain West regular season, which tells us they’re a really good basketball team. The MWC sent Colorado State, Nevada, Utah State, and San Diego State to the tournament this season. Purdue will struggle to beat the Aggies in the second round. If Utah State pulls off the upset, they can win the Midwest.

Midwest Region
Favorite Pick: Creighton Blue Jays | Odds for College Basketball MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

2024 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament | 2024 March Madness Calendar

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2024 March Madness Picture: Favorites/Upsets in this Season

This is the last full week of basketball action before we get to the start of March Madness. Right now, the conference tournaments are in full swing, with the outcome of those dictation how the selection committee will set up the tournament bracket. As such, we still don’t know the path that each team will need to take to win the National Championship, but we still have a very decent idea as to which teams will be among the favorites to win it all. We are going to take a closer look at a few of those teams, as well as a few dark horses that might upset the apple cart, so let’s dive right in.

UConn Huskies

The Huskies won the Big East regular season title in a bit of a canter, going 18-2 in conference play to win it by 4 games. Their participation in the Big East tournament will start on Thursday with a matchup against Xavier, but even if they crash out early, there is still a very good chance that they will be one of the #1 seeds in the tournament. A very worthy favorite indeed.

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Houston Cougars

The Cougars finished the season with the same 28-3 overall record as the Huskies. They went 15-3 in the Big 12, winning the regular season crown by 2 games. They closed out the season on a 9-game winning streak and will try to keep that going when they open up conference tournament play against TCU.

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Purdue Boilermakers

Yet another team that finished the regular season with a 28-3 record and a conference winner. The Boilermakers spent some time as the #1 team in the nation this season and will almost certainly enter the tournament as a #1 seed in one of the four regions. Their conference tournament play will start on Friday, with their opponent to be determined.

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Tennessee Volunteers

We start out look at some potential dark horse teams by looking at the Tennessee Volunteers. They came out on top in what was a great battle for the SEC regular season crown, going 14-4 in conference play and 24-7 overall. They ended the regular season with a loss to Kentucky, but they cannot be counted out.

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Creighton Bluejays

The UConn Huskies garnered most of the spotlight in the Big East, which may suit the Bluejays just fine, as then pressure is somewhat off them heading into the tournament. In the final few weeks of the season, Creighton has massive wins over UConn and Marquette, proving that they have what it takes to win against the bigger teams in college basketball. That is something they are going to need to repeat in March Madness.

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North Carolina Tar Heels

Given the success that the ACC has had in March Madness over the years, I would be remiss if I did not add a team from that conference into this preview. The Tar Heels ended the regular season by winning the conference crown, winning 6 in a row to end the year. As we write this piece, they are in action against Florida State in the ACC tournament, which, if they can win it, would put them in great shape heading into the big tournament.

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We are still a couple of months away from the start of March Madness, so any predictions made now could well blow up in our face. 2024 NCAA Basketball Betting | MyBookie Sportsbook Early March Madness Picture: Favorites and possible upsets

I am certainly not ready to make my pick to win it all, as there is still too much basketball to be played, with fortunes for some teams almost certainly set to change between now and the start of the tournament, Things tend to become a little clearer once we figure out which teams are in and which are going to miss out, and clearer still once the final bracket is in place. We are aware, though, that some of you like to get your wagers in as early as possible, hoping to take advantage of the current odds. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at some of the potential favorites to be National Champions this season.

March Madness Betting Odds for Favorites/Upsets

Purdue Boilermakers

The Boilermakers have spent some time in the top spot this season, but they are currently #2 in the nation at the moment with a record of 15-2, bouncing back to win 2 in a row after the loss that dropped them down a spot. Both of their losses have come in conference play, which is important because they still have some tough games ahead of them, including 3 against ranked opponents. It is going to be interesting to see how they handle their remaining schedule, but as it stands now, they are probably looking at nabbing one of the #1 seeds in the bracket.

UConn Huskies

The Huskies are rolling right now, winning 6 in a row to get to the #1 team in the nation. They are 16-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play, with Seton Hall breathing down their neck in the battle to win the regular season conference championship. The Huskies have been solid against ranked teams this year, losing just once in 5 attempts, with that defeat coming at the hands of Kansas. If there is a concern with this team, it is their play on the defensive side of the court. They are barely in the top 30 in points allowed per game, which they will need to improve on ahead of the tournament.

Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats are a big question mark right now, as they are really struggling to find any sort of consistency. They started out the season well enough, winning each of their opening 8 games, but since then they have gone just 5-4. They are 4-2 in PAC-12 play, but they look a longshot to land on top there, as Oregon is still unbeaten at the top. This is a team that scores a lot of points, sitting in the top 3 in PPG, but they have been a bit of a nightmare on the defensive side of the court. They could well run into problems against the better teams if they cannot shore up defensively.

Houston Cougars

If defense does indeed win championships, then the Houston Cougars need to be in the conversation to win a Natty. They have the number one defense in the country at the moment, surrendering just 51.5 PPG. The type of D often comes at a cost when it comes to offense, though, and that is indeed the case with Houston, who average just 75 PPG. It only takes one off night against a high-scoring team for their championship challenge to go up in smoke, but if that defense can maintain their current level of play, these odds might well just prove to be an absolute bargain.

Now that we have looked at the top 4 teams on the bookies board right now, we thought it might be fun to look at some teams that could prove to be a decent dark horse pick in the tournament. While these teams could certainly win it all, they are more likely to go on a run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. Let’s take a closer look at this group of teams.

Kansas Jayhawks

If you are of the belief that the Kansas Jayhawks could go all the way this year, now might well be the time to get your wager in. I’m sure these odds are going to shorten in the next few weeks, especially if they can get through what is a tough remaining schedule relatively intact. They have a ton of big games coming, so expecting them to stay in their current #3 spot seems like a bit of an ask, but if they can finish strong and win the majority of those games against ranked teams, they will head into the tournament on a roll and at much shorter odds. They have a lot of conference games to come, which could shape how this team goes into March Madness.

Auburn Tigers

Winning streaks eventually come to an end and teams can peak too early, but you have to like the look of the Auburn Tigers at the moment. They are 15-2 overall, which includes a perfect record of 4-0 in SEC play. The Tigers are currently on a run of 10 straight wins, and while they don’t post great numbers on offense or defense, they are still balanced enough that they can win games in a variety of different ways. The SEC is certainly not as strong in basketball as it is in football, which may help explain why the Tigers are stuck down in the #13 spot despite having a record of 15-2. If they continue to win, the rankings will take care of themselves, and they will become a bit of a sexy dark horse pick in the tournament.

Marquette Golden Eagles

We are moving into definite longshot territory here, for reasons I will explain in a moment, and while I don’t see Marquette winning it all, I do think they can do some damage in the tournament. Since 2009, the average preseason odds of the eventual winner of the National Championship sits at +1962, so Marquette are currently outside of that, although that might not mean too much in the grand scheme of things. They are on a bit of a slide at the moment, dropping 6 spots in the rankings last week after going 3-3 to start conference play. They have a tough stretch of games to close out the season, so if they can right the ship and finish strong, they might just make a run in March Madness.