2023 First-Round NCAA Tournament Upsets That May Stun College Basketball Bettors

Previous Betting News

Everyone loves an upset! With so much parity in college basketball this season, it’s not imaginable that there will be a ton of upsets this season. There are so many great college basketball players, and they all can’t end up at one of the top programs. Let’s take a look at some potential March Madness Betting upsets that could make some huge news in the world of college basketball.

1st round Upsets that May Stun College Basketball Bettors

(15) Cal State-Fullerton over (2) Duke

Remember a few years back when Lehigh beat Duke? This could happen again this season. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we know that this is Mike Krzyzewski’s last season and that Duke could catch some breaks along the way, but we just don’t see them getting that far. After Coach K’s final home game at Duke, it was obvious that there is a disconnect between the legendary Coach and his players. Even though they struggled in the ACC Tournament, they still got to the title game, but they were soundly defeated by Virginia Tech. This upset would shock the college basketball world, and it could happen!

(13) South Dakota State over (4) Providence 

This could be a trendy pick, as the Jackrabbits come into this one with a 30-4 overall record. Providence limps into the NCAA Tournament after getting beat by 27 points by Creighton in the Big East tournament. Providence has struggled as of late, as they haven’t played nearly as well as they did earlier this year. The oddsmakers are thinking that Providence could be in trouble as well, as they’ve only deemed them a 2.5-point favorite. 

South Dakota State is lethal from beyond the arc and has one of the top-scoring offenses in the country. Their style of play will give the more methodical Friars some issues.

(11) Virginia Tech over (6) Texas

This is Chris Beard’s first season at Texas. He has a very athletic roster with a ton of height. Virginia Tech has a lot of talent but didn’t play up to their potential until the ACC Tournament. Mike Young is one of the most underrated coaches in America, and his offense relies on ball movement and shooting the three. If they get behind, they could be in trouble, as the Texas bigs will be hard for them to guard. However, we think they’ll be hitting their three-balls, and they’ll get up big on Texas, and the Longhorns won’t be able to catch up. 

(14) Colgate +9.5 over (3) Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a trendy Final Four selection. The Badgers were Big 10 regular season co-champs. Colgate can light it up from beyond the arc, as they have the second-best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. Wisconsin doesn’t shoot the deep ball well, so if they get into a situation where they’re behind, they could be in trouble. It was obvious in their Big 10 Tournament loss to Michigan State that Johnny Davis still isn’t 100% healthy. If he’s not playing at a high level, the Wisconsin Badgers are in trouble. We think Colgate will shoot the lights out and will knock the 9.5-point favorite Badgers out in the first round. 

Previous Betting News

Whether you’re an avid college basketball betting aficionado that consistently wagers on college hoops throughout the season or a more casual collegiate hoops bettors that only bets on the game when March Madness rolls around, then you’re in for a big-time ‘sweet treat’ thanks to the half-dozen first round 2019 March Madness betting picks that you’re about to get.

With the 2019 NCAA Tournament getting underway in a mere matter of days, let’s get down to business.

Top 2019 March Madness First Round Upset Betting Picks

Upset Special

No. 3 LSU (26-6) vs. No. 14 Yale (22-7) (East)

• When: Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 12:40 PM ET
• Where: Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida
• March Madness Odds: LSU -8

Analysis: Yale has had an absolutely fantastic campaign and claimed the Ivy League regular season title by beating Harvard 97-85 on Sunday, while LSU has managed to fight through a lot of off-court turmoil after head coach Will Wade was suspended after being caught on FBI tape about making an “offer” and a “deal” for current guard Javonte Smart, one of the top recruits in the nation at the time. While LSU has the bigger name program and the superior group of athletes, it’s easy to see why a whopping 59 percent of public bettors are currently rolling with Yale to cover the chalk as big, 8-point underdogs.

Nail-Biter Just Waiting to Happen

No. 7 Wofford (29-4) vs. No. 10 Seton Hall (20-13) (Midwest)

• When: Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 9:40 PM ET
• Where: Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida
• NCAAB Odds: Wofford -3

Analysis: Wofford has an absolutely jaw-dropping campaign in losing just four games while claiming their fifth Southern Conference Tournament championship in the last 10 seasons, but first since 2015. Still, a convincing 60 percent of public bettors are currently backing Seton Hall, but I’m not really sure why, seeing as how Wofford averages a stellar 83.0 points per game (12th) while shooting a blistering 49.3 percent from the field (10th). Seton Hall averages just 2.4 points er game more than they average and I think the Pirates are going to suffer a solid loss in this contest.

Upset Alert

No. 7 Louisville (21-13) vs. No. 10 Minnesota (20-13) (East)

• When: Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 12:15 PM ET
• Where: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Analysis: Seventh-seeded Louisville is back in the Big Dance after a one-year absence, but the Cards haven’t been playing very well in dropping seven of their last 10 games, although four of those losses came against Virginia (twice), Duke and North Carolina.

Conversely, Minnesota has won four of six while beating a very good Purdue team twice along the way. Right now, I’m thinking Louisville could be in trouble in this contest, particularly seeing as how Amir Coffey has gone nuts recently by averaging 23.8 points over his last six games, after putting a far more modest 16.3 points per game throughout the regular season. I’m feeling like a win in this contest for Minnesota wouldn’t be much of an upset really.

Previous Betting News

If you’re getting fired up for the 2018 March Madness national championship tournament and you’re looking for some NCAA Basketball betting upset picks, then have no fear, I’ve got you covered. Here’s an expert look at a half-dozen teams that are all flying under the radar on the national map, yet are all offering their own kind of upset value according to the latest NCAAB odds.

Expert NCAA Basketball Betting Upset Picks for 2018 March Madness

• Season: 2017–18
• Begins: March 13th
• Ends: April 2nd
• Teams: 68
• TV: CBS, TBS, TNT
• Finals Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas

Houston (20-5)

I love the upset value that a clearly under-appreciated Houston team is offering before March Madness. The Cougars just smacked around No. 5 Cincinnati to snap the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games and they also pounded an excellent Wichita State team into submission 73-59 on Jan. 20.

Houston ranks a fantastic 21st in points allowed (64.8 ppg) and they have the look of a squad that could pull off more than one upset come tourney time!

Complete Team Statistics

• Average Score For: 76.73
• Offensive rebounds: 12.12
• Offensive Field Goal Percentage: 46.15
• Average Score Against: 64.62
• Defensive rebounds: 27.50
• Defensive Field Goal Percentage: 38.98

Rhode Island (21-3)

The Rams aren’t getting a whole lot of love because they play in the understated A-10, but I don’t think anyone should be sleeping on Rhode Island right about now, particularly seeing as how they’ve got just three losses this season.

The Rams limited the opposition to just 66.4 points per game (41st) while simultaneously putting up 77.3 points per game (85th). What I like most about the Rams is that they have eight guys that can put the ball in the bucket!

Complete Team Statistics

• Average Score For: 77.20
• Offensive rebounds: 11.08
• Offensive Field Goal Percentage: 46.93
• Average Score Against: 66.84
• Defensive rebounds: 22.76
• Defensive Field Goal Percentage: 45.07

Murray State (21-5)

So what, Murray State plays in the mid-major Ohio Valley Conference! The Racers have got some game at both ends of the floor as they average 80.2 points per game (47th) and limit their opponents to just 66.3 points per game defensively (39th). Jonathan Stark (21.3 ppg) and Terrell Miller (51.4 %FG) have got a major game if you haven’t seen either player this season!

So what you don’t know much about the Southern Conference! The East Tennessee State Buccaneers could change that in a hurry come March Madness! East Tennessee State doesn’t have a prolific offense as they average a modest 76.6 points per game (104th), but they get it done at the other end of the floor in a big way by holding their opponents to just 65.5 points per game to rank 27th nationally.

By the way, the Bucs have held three of their last 10 opponents to 56 points or less, so there’s that!

Complete Team Statistics

• Average Score For: 80.00
• Offensive rebounds: 10.70
• Offensive Field Goal Percentage: 48.96
• Average Score Against: 66.22
• Defensive rebounds: 26.19
• Defensive Field Goal Percentage: 41.15

University of Louisiana at Lafayette (22-4)

The Ragin’ Cajuns might be known more for their football program, but this year, UL Lafayette has got some serious game in roundball as well. The Sun Belt Conference leaders are rock-solid defensively in limiting the opposition to 70.3 points per game (127th), but it’s at the other end of the floor where the Ragin’ Cajuns are downright scary!

UL Lafayette averages a stellar 84.2 points per game to rank 17th nationally and they’ve got four double-digit scorers that can all ‘go off’ whenever they need them to, not to mention four other players that can put the ball in the hole pretty consistently! Three starters shoot a blistering 54.1 percent from the field or better, so there’s that as well college basketball bettors!

Complete Team Statistics

• Average Score For: 84.81
• Offensive rebounds: 12.70
• Offensive Field Goal Percentage: 47.43
• Average Score Against: 70.59
• Defensive rebounds: 26.59
• Defensive Field Goal Percentage: 42.91

New Mexico State (22-4)

Sure, the Aggies aren’t getting a whole lot of love because they play in the WAC, but you should know that New Mexico State looks downright scary when it comes to their stingy defense.

The Aggies limit the opposition to just 62.6 points per game to rank a stupendous fifth nationally in points allowed. Not only that, but New Mexico State has a couple of big-time players in shooting guard Zach Lofton 919.8 ppg) and forward Jemerrio Jones (10.5 ppg, 12.4 rpg).

Complete Team Statistics

• Average Score For: 74.26
• Offensive rebounds: 12.56
• Offensive Field Goal Percentage: 45.47
• Average Score Against: 63.04
• Defensive rebounds: 28.07
• Defensive Field Goal Percentage: 39.48

Previous Betting News

Selection Sunday is in the books and the official March Madness bracket has now been released. The action begins on Tuesday and Wednesday with the First Four play-in games, after which the true madness begins with the first round on Thursday. We already know what most of the match-ups will be, and we already know that all the #1 seeds will be moving on, as a #16 has never yet beaten a top seed. If it’s March Madness upset picks you are looking for, you need to probably look a little deeper in the bracket. We have picked a few games that may deliver an upset and give your bankroll a boost, no matter what the March Madness betting lines might say.

1st round Upsets that May Change your 2018 March Madness Betting Plan

• Season: 2017–18
• Begins: March 13th
• Ends: April 2nd
• Teams: 68
• TV: CBS, TBS, TNT

#10 Oklahoma Sooners over #7 Rhode Island Rams

It’s easy to forget that the Sooners were ranked #4 in the country at one point, perhaps because they went out and lost 11 of their last 15 regular season games. Some have argued that there are teams more deserving of a tournament spot than Oklahoma, going as far as suggesting that they are only in because Trae Young is such a standout player.

Deserving or not, it is that young man who could very well propel Oklahoma to a 1st Round win, and perhaps even more, when March Madness begins on Thursday.

Latest March Madness Betting Trends

• Rhode Island is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
• Rhode Island is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rhode Island’s last 5 games
• Oklahoma is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
• Oklahoma is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games

#12 New Mexico State Aggies over #5 Clemson Tigers

If you are going to have any sort of success in the college basketball playoffs, you need to be solid on the defensive side of the court. The New Mexico State Aggies certainly bring that to the table, as they come into the tournament with the 19th best defense in the nation.

They limit shots from the outside and force teams to beat them in the paint, a battle they seldom lose. The Aggies are going to need to take a good number of the 3-point opportunities presented to them to really put the pressure on them, and if they can do that, the upset alert may be on.

Latest March Madness Betting Trends

• Clemson is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
• Clemson is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Clemson’s last 6 games
• New Mexico State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

#10 Butler Bulldogs over #7 Arkansas Razorbacks

Butler, who recorded 20 wins this season, have already proven themselves to be a bit of a giant killer, posting wins over Villanova and Ohio State during the course of the regular season. Not only can the Bulldogs shoot the lights out when needed, they are also great on the offensive rebounds, which means that they get more than their fair share of second chances even when they are not shooting as efficiently as we know they can.

Of the upset picks that we are sharing with you here today, this feels like the one that is most likely to hit. I will definitely be adding this to my betting slip and my bracket.

Latest March Madness Betting Trends

• Butler is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
• The total has gone OVER in 16 of Butler’s last 24 games
• Arkansas is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
• Arkansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

#11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers over Miami Hurricanes

The Ramblers have a couple of things going for them that make them a legitimate 1st Round upset pick. The first is that they have a spectacular defense, with that unit showing what it is made of when holding the Florida Gators to just 59 points in a game played during the regular season.

The other thing that you need to like is their ability to shoot from beyond the 3-point line, which is where they are going to need to be efficient to get past a big Miami Hurricanes defensive unit.

Latest March Madness Betting Trends

• Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
• Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of Miami’s last 16 games
• Loyola-Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games
• Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Loyola-Chicago’s last 5 games

Previous Betting News

If you’re getting your betting plan set for the 2017 NCAA March Madness national championship tournament and  you’re looking for teams that are offering plenty of value as underdogs that are capable of pulling off upsets over their favored first round opponents, then consider your ticket punched!

I’ve got a trio of teams that are all offering the own kind of value as upset picks when the second round gets underway on Thursday.  Now, let’s find out which triumvirate of ballclubs is offering that upset college basketball point spread value.

Analyzing The First Round Upsets That May Stun College Basketball Bettors

No. 10 VCU vs. No. 7 St. Mary’s

When: Thursday, March 16, 2017 at 7:20 PM ET
Where: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
TV: TBS
NCAAB Odds: St. Mary’s -4.5

Analysis: Saint Mary’s (28-4 SU, 16-11-2 ATS) saw their six-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt in their 74-56 West Coast Conference tournament loss against Gonzaga last Tuesday while VCU (26-8 SU, 12-17-1 ATS) had their modest three-game winning streak snapped in their 70-53 loss to Rhode Island in the A-10 title game on Sunday.

For this matchup, I’m going to advise you to back a St. Mary’s team that has been ranked in the top 20 virtually all season long and one that gives up almost 10 points per game less than VCU this season. I suspect that VCU won’t have an answer for St. Mary’s 6-11 junior center Jock Landal (16.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 1.2 bpg) although I do have some concerns that the Gaels have just one other player averaging in double figures in scoring in junior forward Calvin Hermanson (12.9 ppg).

The Rams have a very nice pair of perimeter players in guard JeQuan Lewis (14.7 points, 4.6 assists) and forward Justin Tillman (12.4 points, 8.8 rebounds), but St. Mary’s has lost to just two teams this season, with three of their four losses coming against previously No. 1 Gonzaga.

Saint Mary’s has posted a near-perfect 10-1 SU mark on the road this season and 3-1 mark in four neutral site games while VCU has gone 7-4 in 11 road games and 4-3 in seven neutral site contests. VCU is 2-4-1 ATS over its last seven games while St. Mary’s has gone 5-1-1 ATS over the same span. Saint Mary’s wins and narrowly covers the spread because of their stupendous second-ranked defense (56.5 ppg).

Pick: Saint Mary’s 71 VCU 64

No. 9 Virginia Tech vs. No. 8 Wisconsin

Analysis: No. 8 Wisconsin (25-9 SU, 15-16 ATS) may be making their 19th consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, but the Badgers certainly aren’t playing their best basketball as they’ve dropped six of their last 10 games and come into the NCAA tournament off a 71-56 loss against Michigan in their Big Ten conference championship loss on Sunday.

On the flip side of the coin, Virginia Tech (22-10 SU, 16-11 ATS) had won four of their last five games before falling to Florida State in their 74-68 ACC tournament loss on Thursday. I was really high on Wisconsin this season and believed they could make a deep tourney run, but right now, I think they’re in danger of losing outright to a Virginia Tech ballclub that has recorded some quality wins over Michigan, Duke, Syracuse, Virginia and Miami.

Virginia Tech averages almost eight points per game more than Wisconsin and ranks a stellar 13th nationally in field goal percentage shooting (49.0%) and three-point shooting percentage (40.3%). While the Badgers are one of the nation’s best defensive teams (61.4 ppg, 9th), they’ve also been held under 60 points four times in their last six games while losing to lesser teams like Michigan (twice), Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa.

Virginia Tech forward Zach LeDay (16.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg) will likely be the best player on the floor in this matchup while leading the Virginia Tech Hokies to the ATS cover at the very least.

Pick: Virginia Tech 68 Wisconsin 65

No. 10 Wichita State Shockers (30-4) at No. 7 Dayton Flyers (24-7)

Analysis: The seventh-seeded Dayton Flyers (24-7 SU, 19-10 ATS) may be the higher seed in their first round matchup against No. 10 Wichita State (30-4 SU, 18-12-1 ATS), but the Shockers re the pick to get the outright upset win seeing as how they’re statistically better at both ends of the floor and come into the NCAA tournament absolutely on fire!

Wichita State has won  whopping 15 consecutive games, including their 71-51 blowout win over Illinois State in their Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship matchup on Mar. 5.

Not only that, but the Shockers average a stellar 82.1 points per game to rank 20th nationally in scoring while also limiting their opponents this season to just 62.4 points per game defensively to rank a stellar 14th nationally in points allowed. Wichita State has three double-digit scorers on the roster and is led in scoring by forward Markis McDuffie (11.8 ppg).

Dayton has lost two straight including their 73-67 loss to Davidson in their A-10 conference tournament matchup on Friday. The Flyers average a respectable 76.5 points per game (102nd) on 47.0 percent shooting from the field (49th) and 38.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc (37th). The Flyers are rock-solid defensively in limiting the opposition to just 66.5 points per game (48th) while limiting the opposition to just 41.3 percent shooting (47th). Dayton has three double-digit scorers including leading scorer Charles Cooke (16.1 ppg).

While Wichita State certainly doesn’t play the best competition round, the Shockers have shown in recent years that they are indeed an elite program despite their mostly inferior MCV competition. The Shockers have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games while Dayton has gone 3-3 ATS over their last six. Wichita State is 9-1 on the road this season and 5-2 in seven neutral site games while Dayton has gone 7-3 on the road and 2-3 in five neutral site games. The Shockers get the outright win to cover and advance.

Pick: Wichita State 77 Dayton 71

If there’s one thing you can be sure about the first round of the NCAA Tournament, it is that we will have quite a number of upsets from the 32 games set to take place in the college basketball lines, starting this Tuesday. And if this belief holds true, as it has consistently done since the Field of 64 was introduced by the NCAA, then the first round of the college basketball games should be due for some sweet values. Here are some of the first round games we believe will offer you a chance to cash on some solid upset March Madness betting picks.

Sure Betting Upsets for March Madness First Round

No.8 USC v. No.9 Providence, Thursday March 17

Outside their go-to star in future NBA draft pick Kris Dunn, the Friars are pretty much an average shooting team. This doesn’t bode well for them as they will be going against USC team that can light it up from beyond the arc and rarely gives up many easy points. Not to mention, the Friars aren’t good defensively, so keeping up with USC’s offense won’t be easy. Added to the fact the Trojans tend to be dominant on the offensive glass, this games looks well set up for an upset win by USC, in spite of strong scoring effort from Dunn. Upset NCAAB Pick: USC (+1).

No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock, Thursday March 17

Every season, a 12-seed team upsets a 5-seed team, and we believe Arkansas-Little Rock could be a potential team to continue with that betting tradition. Obviously, Purdue’s stingy half-court defense and massive size will be tough to deal with, along with the fact that the Boilermakers are quite good when shooting hot from downtown (they are averaging 37 percent from the three). That said, the Trojans should be able to combat that, given they are equally good at shooting from deep, led by sharpshooters Josh Hagins and Marcus Johnson Jr. Plus, on the other side of the ball, Little Rock has proven quite efficient at making it difficult for opponents to hit their threes this year. And as an added bonus, the Boilermakers struggle a lot from shooting within the paint, nailing just 37 percent of their two-point field goals in the halfcourt. Against the balanced Little Rock, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the currently-sputtering Boilermakers cook themselves out of the Tournament. Upset NCAAB Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (+8).

No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Yale, Thursday March 17

In another No.5 seed vs. No.12 seed matchup, the Bears will be facing a Yale team that is dangerous enough to cause an upset. Obviously, Baylor is a very solid shooting team and its ability to crash the offensive boards makes it a tough opponent. But then again, Baylor’s zone defense often makes them vulnerable from the three-point range, which could be a deal-breaker against Yale that shoots a high volume from the three-point line. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are also strong on the defensive glass, something that could easily allow them to neutralize one of the Bears’ strongest suits: offensive rebounding. With that, this game could be a classic 12-5 upset. Upset NCAAB Pick: Yale (+5).

No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin, Friday, March 18

You all know about West Virginia and its famous Press Virginia halfcourt defense that ranks second in the league in defensive turnovers. What you probably don’t know is that the team that ranks No. 1 in the nation in defensive turnovers is Stephen F. Austin. This means the Mountaineers will have a tough climb in their bid to use their defense, as the Lumberjacks are just as impressive when it comes down to felling down their opponents via a fierce cut-throat defense. As if that isn’t enough, the Lumberjacks are impressively ranked at No. 12 in the league for effective field goal percentage (55.5 percent), hitting 37.5 percent from downtown, yet WVU’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league in offensive turnover percentage (19.6 out of every 100 possessions) and their mistake-prone defense puts teams on the free throw line more than any other team in the nation. Even more impressively, Stephen F. Austin enter this game on an incredible 20-game winning streak, including wins by 36 points and 22 points in Southland tournament, something that will boost their confidence of pulling an upset this Friday. After all, this is the same Stephen F. Austin team that sent VCU home early in 2014, so it’s not like they don’t have the experience of doing it big at the grandest of stages in college basketball. Upset NCAAB Pick: Stephen F. Austin (+7).