NCAA Basketball Odds: Rutgers vs Purdue Picks

The Boilers are favored on the NCAA Basketball Odds in their home finale. Rutgers possesses two likely Top 5 picks for the 2025 NBA Draft, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. However, despite their talent, they find themselves outside the NCAA Tournament picture entering No. 18 Purdue.

Even with a win here and in its regular-season finale vs. Minnesota, Rutgers (14-15, 7-11 Big Ten) is going to have to win the Big Ten Tournament to avoid a hugely disastrous season. No school in history has missed a Big Dance when it had two top-five draft picks in the same year, as Rutgers might have this summer in Harper and Bailey.

Opening Spread/Totals Subject to Change: Purdue -10.5 (total 152.5)
Expert Prediction: Purdue 80, Rutgers 74

Purdue (20-9, 12-6 Big Ten) will be back in the NCAA Tournament after losing in the 2024 title game to UConn. The Boilers have a chance to finish as high as third in the Big Ten regular-season standings, with the top four getting a double-bye.

The Boilers try for the season sweep, as they were 2.5-point favorites at Rutgers on Jan. 9 and won 68-50. Purdue star Braden Smith had 16 points, 14 assists, 3 rebounds and 3 steals. Trey Kaufman-Renn scored 14 of his 16 points in the second half. It marked the first time since Feb. 19, 2019 that Purdue won when shooting under 20 percent from 3-point range (4-of-24) and 50 percent from the free throw line (8-of-16). It was 24-of-32 (.750) from two-point range.

The Rutgers freshman duo of Bailey and Harper entered averaging 40 points per game and combined for 23. The Knights got to within five points (46-41), before the Boilermakers went on a 9-0 run to increase its lead to 55-41 to clinch it.

Rutgers vs Purdue Picks, NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

NCAAB Moneylines: Purdue -631 / Rutgers +434
When: Tuesday, 7 PM ET
Where: Mackey Arena
Stream: Peacock exclusive

Final Road Game for Rutgers

The Knights had a chance for a signature win last Thursday and a three-game winning streak but couldn’t hold on in an 84-82 loss at No. 15 Michigan. The Wolverines rallied after trailing by 12 in the second half. The Scarlet Knights (14-15, 7-11) went back ahead with 12.2 seconds left when Tyson Acuff made two free throws after being fouled on a 3-pointer. However, Nimari Burnett made a long 3-pointer at the buzzer to win it for UM.

Steve Pikiell

“Just devastated for our guys,” Rutgers coach Pikiell said during his postgame radio interview. “Played so hard the whole time. “A couple of [down the] stretch calls, I thought there were travels [on Michigan]. We couldn’t get a stop, but I couldn’t be more proud of these guys. … The Big Ten whistle was in full effect. But we had chances.”

Top Scorers

Knights freshman star Dylan Harper had another strong outing with 17 points, four rebounds, and three steals including key buckets down the stretch. Fellow five-star freshman Ace Bailey was one rebound shy of notching his eighth double-double – he had 13 points. Over the past three games (Washington, USC, Michigan), Rutgers offensively has averaged 88.6 points per game (use this stat to plan the NCAA basketball odds).

It marks the first time since December 2022 that RU has scored 80+ in three straight games, and first time doing so in three straight Big Ten Conference games since joining the league in 2014-15. Rutgers never scored 80+ points in three consecutive conference games in the Big East. The last time Rutgers’ scored 80+ points in three consecutive conference games came in 1990-91 in the Atlantic 10.

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Boilers Solved Their Problems?

No. 18 Purdue had looked terrible in a four-game losing streak but righted the ship impressively last Friday in a 76-66 win over UCLA. Braden Smith set the Purdue career assists record with 696 assists and became the first player in Big Ten history with two seasons of 250 or more assists. For the season, Smith now has 465 points, 251 assists, 131 rebounds and 69 steals. He joins Michigan State‘s Magic Johnson (1979) as the only players in Big Ten history with a season of at least 450 points, 250 assists, 125 rebounds and 60 steals. Smith has done it in each of the last two seasons.

Fletcher Loyer scored 11 points, going 3-of-5 from long range. When Loyer makes three or more 3-pointers in a game, the Boilermakers are 11-0 this season. Purdue improved to 12-0 when holding its opponent to 69 or fewer points.

Matt Painter

“I thought they played really hard for the entire game. We haven’t had bad first halves in that four-game losing streak. We’ve had bad second halves, we’ve had a couple awful starts to the second half, then, obviously, we haven’t had great finishes to the second half,” Coach Painter said.

It was Purdue’s eighth quad-1 win of the season and 15th combined quad-1 and quad-2 victory, the third most in the country (Auburn – 20; Alabama – 17). Purdue and Michigan are the only Big Ten teams to sweep the newest members of the Big Ten (Oregon, Washington, UCLA, USC). Purdue won the four games by a combined 46 points.

Purdue is seventh in the country by shooting 49.3% from the field as a team (best in the Big Ten). They also lead the league and are 20th nationally at 38.3% from three-point range.

Rutgers at Purdue Game Trends

Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers’ last 6 games.
Rutgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in March.
Rutgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played on a Tuesday.
Boilers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
Purdue are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played in March.
Boilers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played on a Tuesday when playing at home.
Purdue’s total has gone over in 7 of last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Purdue’s last 8 games at home.

Rutgers at Purdue NCAA Basketball Odds & Expert Prediction

RU’s Harper is at 502 points on the season. He became the first Scarlet Knight to reach 500 points in a season since his older brother, Ron Harper Jr., scored 507 points in 2021-22. The only other Scarlet Knight to reach 500 points in a season under Pikiell was Corey Sanders in 2017-18 (517). With 16 points against the Boilermakers, Harper would have scored more points than any Scarlet Knight in the Big Ten era. The last Scarlet Knight to score at least 520 points in a season was Mike Rosario (534 in 2009-10). Harper remains in the team lead with 19.3 points per game, fourth in the Big Ten. Bailey trails him at 18.2 points per game, seventh in the league.

Purdue has now won 71 conference games over the last five seasons, tied for the most in Big Ten history (Indiana, 1974-78). Purdue’s 112 wins over the last four seasons are the ninth most in Big Ten history. The school has now won at least 12 conference games for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons (since 2014-15). No other Big Ten program has more than seven 12-win seasons in that time frame.

Rutgers and Purdue will meet for the 24th time all-time, with 19 of those matchups coming since RU joined the league in 2014-15. Rutgers has won five of the past 10 meetings. That streak included a 70-68 win in the last meeting at Jersey Mike’s Arena, as Ron Harper Jr. hit a buzzer-beating shot to down the No. 1 ranked Boilermakers, the first ever win for RU over a top-ranked team. Purdue 80, Rutgers 74.

POLL ALERT: Auburn and Duke remain 1-2 in men's AP Top 25; No. 6 St. John's has its highest ranking since 1990-91.

Full poll: https://t.co/ZJG5mgWrsa pic.twitter.com/3MPQkWzfoI
— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) March 3, 2025

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