Bet on the Xavier vs Texas Prediction, the 2025 NCAA Tournament’s First Four from Dayton concludes on Wednesday night with two of the last at-large teams into the field meeting from the Midwest Region as No. 11 Texas from the SEC faces No. 11 Xavier from the Big East with the Musketeers as short favorites on the NCAAB odds.
Texas (19-15, 6-12 SEC) was the last of a record 14 SEC schools in the NCAA Tournament, with the Horns in their first season in the league. Do we really need teams that went 6-12 in their conference in the Dance if they don’t win said conference tournament?
| Opening Spread/Totals Subject to Change: Xavier -3 (total 152) Expert Prediction: Xavier 77, Texas 75 |
How to Bet Xavier vs Texas Prediction, NCAAB Odds & TV Info
NCAAB Lines: Texas +134 / Xavier -164
When: Wednesday, 9:10 PM ET
Where: UD Arena, Dayton
TV: truTV
Stream: https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live
The only SEC schools that didn’t make it were LSU and South Carolina. The previous mark for most schools from one league in the Dance was 11 by the Big East in 2011 when that league also had 16 schools.
By percentage (87.5%), the SEC’s NCAA Tournament haul is also the best ever, topping the 77.7% mark posted when the nine-team Big East put seven schools in the 1991 bracket. But no SEC team has won it all since Kentucky in 2012.
Xavier (13-7, 21-11 Big East) is one of five Big East schools in the Dance along with regular-season and conference tournament champion, St. John’s, Creighton, Marquette and two-time defending national champion UConn, which has little chance of repeating.
XU has played two previous NCAA games at the University of Dayton Arena, 2014 and 1983. Wednesday’s contest marks the seventh meeting between Texas and Xavier.
The Longhorns hold a 4-2 lead in the series, which dates back to a 97-71 UT victory in Cincinnati on Dec. 30, 1981. Xavier and Texas have met three times previously in the NCAA Tournament, with UT holding a 2-1 advantage.
^Horns Finally Healthy Entering Dance
Texas was not an NCAA Tournament team most likely at the end of the regular season but beat Vanderbilt and then upset No. 14 Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament before losing to No. 8 Tennessee in the quarterfinals. That win over the Aggies probably got UT in. The loss to the Vols dropped UT to 4-2 in neutral-site contests and 8-8 overall in games played outside of Austin this season, and to 7-11 in all Quad 1 games.
The Longhorns have earned their fifth consecutive and 39th overall NCAA Tournament appearance, marking 23 in the last 26 seasons. They are among seven schools to achieve this milestone. This current five-season streak is the longest since a 14-year continuous presence from 1999-2012, excluding the 2021 COVID-canceled postseason.
UT aims to secure its fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament opening win, following a second-round finish in 2022, Elite Eight in 2023, and second round in 2024. This would match a streak last seen from 2006 to 2009 for the Longhorns.
A total of six Texas rotational players have missed a combined 44 games due to injuries this year. UT has had its entire rotation available for just five contests this year but did have everyone for the SEC Tournament. The Horns are 18-11 under third-year Coach Rodney Terry in games decided by five points or fewer or in overtime.
^Xavier vs Texas Prediction provided by MyBookie
Musketeers Excellent On Fast Break
Xavier had a seven-game winning streak snapped last Thursday in an 89-87 loss to ranked Marquette in the Big East Tournament quarters, which had XU sweating on Selection Sunday. Ryan Conwell scored a career-high 38 points in the loss and has now scored at least 20 in five straight. The 38 points were a Big East Tournament record at Xavier.
Ryan Conwell
Cornwell is second on the team in scoring at 16.8 ppg and has hit 41.8 percent (97-232) from 3-point range, which ranks third in the Big East and 29th in the nation.
Conwell’s 3.0 made 3-pointers per game ranks second in the Big East, and his 97 3-pointers made also second. Those are just nine short of the school record of 106 set last season by Quincy Olivari.
The Record
Xavier marks its 30th NCAA Tournament appearance, with 29 since 1983. The team reached the Sweet 16 nine times, seven since 2008, and advanced to the Elite Eight in 2004, 2008, and 2017. Overall, XU is 30-29 in tournament history.
The Musketeers are 12-3, with 10 or fewer turnovers, ranking 9-1. They lead the Big East in fastbreak points, while ranking second in free throw and 3-point percentages. Dailyn Swain is fifth in free throw accuracy.
^Xavier vs Texas Prediction and NCAAB Game Trends
- The musketeers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Xavier’s last 13 games.
- Xavier are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games when playing as the favourite.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Xavier’s last 5 games played on a Wednesday.
- Texas are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas’ last 5 games played on a Wednesday.
- Longhorns are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games when playing as the underdog.
- The total has gone OVER in 12 of Texas’ last 13 games.
Xavier vs Texas Prediction
In the most recent meeting between the two programs, Texas earned an 83-71 win over Xavier in Kansas City in the 2023 NCAA Sweet 16 (March 24, 2023). The winner will advance to the first round vs No. 6 seed Illinois on Friday in Milwaukee.
Tre Johnson
Texas guard Johnson was named SEC Freshman of the Year as he leads the SEC in scoring (19.8 ppg) while converting 39.3-percent (84-214) from three-point range and 89.1-percent (114-128) from the free throw line this season.
He also leads the team in minutes (34.6 MPG) and ranks second in assists (88, 2.8 apg) and steals (31). His 19.8 ppg is the highest scoring average by a Texas player since J’Covan Brown (20.1 PPG) led the Big 12 in scoring in 2011-12.
Johnson is attempting to become just the sixth freshman to lead the SEC in scoring, dating back to the 1932-33 season.
Arthur Kaluma
Center Kaluma leads UT and ranks seventh in the SEC in rebounding (7.6 rpg) and tops the squad in double-doubles (eight). He also ranks second on the team in scoring (12.4 ppg), blocks (30) and minutes (29.4 mpg) and third in steals (30).
Zach Freemantle
Freemantle leads Xavier in scoring (fifth in the Big East at 17.3 ppg.) and leads the team in rebounding (sixth in BE at 7.1 rpg.).
He is fifth in the Big East in defensive rebounding at 5.3 drpg., fourth in field goal percentage at .526 and 10th in free throw percentage at .761.
Freemantle has scored 1,729 career points in 134 career games, which is 10th on Xavier’s all-time scoring chart. Freemantle is ninth on Xavier’s all-time rebounding list with 883.
Xavier is 26-11 in its last 37 games against 13 different current SEC members dating to 2008. Xavier 77, Texas 75.
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