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The scorching Cincinnati Bengals head to New England to take on the Patriots in a game the Pats must absolutely win. The Bengals can afford to lose the contest but New England can’t. However, just because a team faces a must win, it doesn’t the team will win. Is New England a good bet to get it done? Or will the Bengals continue to stay hot heading into the regular season’s final few weeks? See below for NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots.

Christmas Game between Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: NFL Week 16

• When: Saturday, Dec. 24 at 1:00 pm ET
• Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
• TV / Streaming: CBS/Paramount+
• ATS Odds: Cincinnati -3
• Money line Odds: New England +139 / Cincinnati -172
• Over/Under Odds: 38

Why bet on Cincinnati versus New England?

The Bengals have won 8 of their last 9 games. The only loss came in an inexplicable contest versus Cleveland where Cincinnati could get nothing going.

The Bengals lost that game 32-13. Other than losing to Cleveland, Cincinnati has beaten Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Cleveland in the rematch during the streak. The victory over the Chiefs especially impressed because the Bengals’ D held the Chiefs to 24 points.

Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 362.1
• Passing Yards: 262.1
• Rushing Yards: 100.0
• Points Scored: 26.4
• Turnovers: 14

Cincinnati Bengals Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 335.7
• Passing Yards: 226.1
• Rushing Yards: 109.6
• Points Scored: 20.6
• Takeaways: 19

Why bet on New England versus Cincinnati?

The Patriots were on the verge of sending their game against the Raiders into overtime last Sunday. A stupid trick play at the end of the game led to a Chandler Jones interception or fumble, depending on what you want to call it, run back for a TD to end the game.

New England is too well-coached to make mistakes like that. If the Patriots stick to a solid plan, one that doesn’t involve trick plays, they could keep this closer than many expect.

New England Patriots Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 319.5
• Passing Yards: 207.5
• Rushing Yards: 112.0
• Points Scored: 21.4
• Turnovers: 19

New England Patriots Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 312.3
• Passing Yards: 202.0
• Rushing Yards: 110.3
• Points Scored: 19.2
• Takeaways: 20

Bengals at Patriots Relevant Trends

• Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December
• Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in their last 12 games on field turf
• Under is 5-0 in the Bengals’ last 5 on a Saturday
• Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on a Saturday
• New England is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December
• Under is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games following a straight-up loss

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots Final Betting Prediction

Sometimes, it’s a question of looking at rosters and backing the team with the most talent. In this case, that team is Cincinnati.

New England doesn’t have the players on defense to stop the Bengals’ offense. Tee Higgins should return to the fold, meaning Joe Burrow gets to throw to Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Ja’Marr Chase.

Not only that, but although end Sam Hubbard is out indefinitely with a calf issue, DE Trey Hendrickson will play and, let’s be honest, Patriots’ QB Mac Jones has taken a couple of big backward steps in his second season.

Anyway we look at it, the Bengals are an overlay. Cincinnati should have no issue winning and covering the spread.

NFL Week 16 Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3