Master Your NFL Regular Season Win Totals Betting Strategy

Betting on NFL Regular Season Win Totals can be a lucrative venture, but it requires a strategic approach. To increase your chances of success, we’ve compiled essential tips and insights to help you make informed decisions.

How to Bet NFL Regular Season Win Totals
Crack the Win Total Code: Win Big with These Win Total Secrets

2024 NFL Season | 105th season of the National Football League
Regular Season: September 5th, 2023 – January 5th, 2024

The 2024 NFL Season is Getting Closer

It’s not too late to get down on NFL Win Totals.

The wonderful thing about win totals is that we can make a few bets before the season starts and ride those bets until the end of the regular season on January 2025.

We can also make NFL bets on both sides, for teams to go over their win total or for teams to go under.

With that in mind, check out four tips that will help you make smart NFL win total bets.

Writer’s Picks for the RSW Props this Season

Tip #1 – Find Value in Payout Odds

Looking for win totals that lead to profitable bets isn’t just about finding the total number.

In fact, most totals are as solid as it gets.

So if the line is Arizona Cardinals 7.5, meaning the Cardinals are likely to win 7 games this upcoming season, we can be assured the line is legit.

Mistakes don’t often happen when oddsmakers create win total lines.

Instead of starting our handicapping by looking at the win total line, we should consider the payout odds.

In the case of the Cards, the payout odds to go over the win total and win 8 games is +124.

This tells us two things.

First, the money is on the Cardinals to win 7 games or less this season.

Second, there are believers that the Cards will win at least 8 games.

By starting our handicapping considering if the payout odds on over the win total provides value, we can correctly assess the Arizona Cardinals regular season schedule.

Tip #2 – Don’t Think Too Hard About NFL Strength of Schedule

Speaking of NFL Schedules, we don’t want to spend too much time worrying about strength of schedule.

The reason is that every NFL team goes through a period where key players will suffer some sort of injury.

Our hope is that the injury, more likely injuries, aren’t long term.

Not only that, but strength of schedule is based on a team making the playoffs in the previous season.

In today’s NFL, college football like changes can happen during every offseason.

Case in the point? The Pittsburgh Steelers will start either Justin Fields, who was Chicago’s starting QB last season, under center or Russell Wilson, who was Denver’s starting QB, under center.

Tip #3 – Following the Money is a Recipe for Disaster

NFL win total betting has become incredibly popular.

With popularity comes false money, meaning money that lands on teams for reasons other than sound handicapping.

For example, the payout odds on Kansas City to win 12 games this season is -118.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should make the playoffs, but the team is much different than they were in 2023.

Not only that, but the schedule is brutal.

Every KC fan on the planet, and there are a lot now, is likely to have bet KC over 11.5.

The smart money appears to be on KC not to reach 12 victories because the payout odds on under is -104.

This doesn’t mean the Chiefs won’t go over their win total.

It does mean that you should handicap Mahomes and his mates yourself before deciding to follow the money over, or under the total.

Tip #4 – Consider How Coaches Strategize Around Their Team’s Bye Week

Coaches strategize around their team’s bye week.

So when looking to go under or over a specific win total, always consider the bye week.

Let’s take a look at the New Orleans Saints as an example.

The Saints’ bye this season is in NFL Week 12.

New Orleans’ win total is 7.5 and the odds to go over are -130.

In the first 11 weeks, the Saints play 5 division games and 7 total NFC Conference games.

No doubt head coach Dennis Allen is hoping to win at least 5 of the 7 total NFC games.

If he can win all 5 division games before the bye, he’d be ecstatic.

If he can go 4-3 in the 7 NFC games, he’d accept it but he wouldn’t be too happy if the Saints lose all of their non-conference games versus the Chargers, Broncos, Chiefs, and Browns.

After the bye, the Saints play 5 NFC games.

The other game is a battle versus the Raiders.

Allen believes the Saints can beat the Raiders.

So he will be sitting on 5 wins for sure if it plays out to his worst case scenario.

The truth is we don’t know exactly how Allen is planning on handling New Orleans bye week.

But we should try to anticipate and think like head coaching heading into the bye.

If the Saints win two of their non-conference games before the week 12 bye, they will be at 6 wins with only 2 wins to go to hit over.

That’s not a bad place with games versus the New York Giants, Washington, and the Las Vegas Raiders left on the schedule.

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— Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) August 7, 2024

Updated NFL lines to win this season.

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