Buccaneers at Texans Betting Prediction for Week 9

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are struggling offensively and could bench starting quarterback Baker Mayfield on Sunday in Houston if the Bucs continue to avoid the end zone. Behind rookie QB CJ Stroud, who has largely been great, the Texans are short favorites on the NFL odds. 2023 NFL Expert Analysis Buccaneers vs Texans | MyBookie Sportsbook NFL Regular Season: September 7, 2023 – January 7, 2024 | Week 9 NFL

How to Bet Buccaneers at Texans NFL Odds & TV Info

When: Sunday, 1 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium
TV: CBSG
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: https://tv.youtube.com/learn/nflsundayticket/

Series History

This is one of the fewest-played rivalries in the NFL with Houston leading Tampa Bay 4-1. The last meeting was in 2019 in Tampa and Houston prevailed 23-20. The Buccaneers played four regular-season games in Houston before the Oilers moved to Nashville and lost them all, so Sunday’s trip is an opportunity for the franchise’s first win in that city.

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Bucs (3-4) lost their third game in a row on Thursday in Week 8, 24-18 in Buffalo. Baker Mayfield completed 25-of-42 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield also added three rushes for 19 yards. Sacked three times, Mayfield spun out of countless more, keeping plays and drives alive. He ranks third in the NFL through Week 8 in passer rating on third-down plays (112.7) and ranks tied for fourth in completion percentage on third-down attempts (66.7%). As a team, Tampa Bay ranks sixth in third-down conversion percentage when passing (41.3%).

Mayfield ranks fourth in the NFL in second half passer rating (98.5) and tied for eighth in second half passing touchdowns (five). Mayfield has thrown just one interception in the second half this season, giving him a 5/1 touchdown to interception ratio in the third and fourth quarters, which ranks third in the NFL among qualified passers.

The Buccaneers rank No. 1 in the NFL with a +8 turnover margin in 2023. The Bucs and Texans have been two of the league’s best at taking care of the ball this season. Tampa Bay has turned the ball over just six times in seven games played – tied for the second-fewest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have also been opportunistic on the defensive side of the ball, generating 13 takeaways through the team’s first seven games, which stand tied for the fourth-most in the NFL.

The Bucs have been an excellent red zone defense in 2023. In fact, through eight weeks it’s the best in the league. Even after giving up two touchdowns on four Buffalo incursions inside the 20 last Thursday – that 50.0% mark is actually better than the league-wide average of 53.7% – the Bucs have still only allowed 27.3% of opposing red zone drives to reach the end zone.

However, red zone results have been inconsistent offensively. The Bucs have scored on 16 of their 17 drives inside the 20 but nine of those scores have been field goals. Tampa Bay’s touchdown rate on red zone drives on offense is just 41.2%, good for 28th in the league. That’s one reason the Bucs have averaged just 12.3 points per outing during their current three-game losing streak. Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed 20 points per game in that same span.

Why Bet on Houston?

Houston (3-4) came out of its bye last Sunday and lost 15-13 at Carolina on a last-second field goal. The Texans defense allowed just one touchdown on four Carolina red-zone trips, including a fourth-down stop at the Houston two-yard line in the second quarter. After multiple lead changes, Houston eventually fell 15-12 following a 23-yard field goal in the final seconds. The Texans recorded 10 quarterback hits, nine tackles for loss and sacked Bryce Young six times in his first NFL win.

Rookie QB CJ Stroud completed 16 of 24 passes for 140 yards and added 13 rushing yards and a touchdown on two carries. The 140 passing yards were a season low for Stroud, while this was the first time he’d failed to toss a TD since his Week 1 NFL debut. The second overall pick in this year’s draft has seen his yardage total decline in three straight games. He faces a Buccaneers defense that had given up the third-most passing yards in the league coming into Sunday.

As good as Stroud has been – he has a 94.9 passer rating, an EPA per drop back of +0.04, a success rate of 44.8% and a sack rate of 5.7% overall – he has, like every quarterback and especially the inexperienced ones, seen far less success when under pressure. In that circumstance he has a passer rating of 70.0, an EPA per drop back of -0.61, a success rate of 28.6% and a sack rate of 16.5%.

Running back Dameon Pierce and WR Robert Woods are in question this week with Woods more likely to sit. He was expected to miss 2-to-3 weeks with the foot injury he carried into the Texans’ Week 7 bye. . If Woods remains sidelined, Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Noah Brown should continue to play significant roles in a Houston offense that predominantly utilizes three-receiver sets. If Pierce ends up out or limited this weekend, Devin Singletary would be next in line for added backfield touches for Houston, with Mike Boone also available to mix in.

The Texans have lost center Jarrett Patterson, to a season-ending broken ankle suffered against Carolina. The 2023 sixth-round draft pick out of Notre Dame had started all seven games this season. Veteran C/G Michael Deiter took over at center and finished Sunday’s game and should start this one. Patterson had stabilized the center position following injuries to Scott Quessenberry (knee) and Juice Scruggs (hamstring).

Tampa Bay has only scored first in two of its seven games, both of which resulted in victories. The Bucs’ average of 1.9 points in the first quarter is tied for 29th in the NFL, ahead of only the Jets and the Giants. Houston has averaged 4.9 points per game in the first quarter, which means the Buccaneers have a good chance of falling behind early if they can’t get off to a faster start than usual.

NFL Regular Season Expert Prediction

Texans 23, Bucs 20

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