NFL Conference Championship Betting Picks Against the Spread

 

Previous Betting News

The Conference Round of the NFL is just around the corner, which is great news for bettors. This weekend will be a great time to take some incredible against the spread picks.

Now, our first matchup is between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs come in as 7.5-point favorites here, but are they the best bet? Let’s find out who you should pick.

The second game of the weekend features two NFC West teams. The San Francisco 49ers will take a short drive to face the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams get the benefit of being at home, but they’ll likely have a ton of 49ers fans in attendance.

The 49ers went 2-0 against the Los Angeles Rams in the regular season. Will they be able to win one more and the NFC Title? Let’s now turn our attention to some ATS picks so you can make sure to place your bets against the NFL Playoffs odds.

 

Conference Round ATS Picks | NFL Playoffs Betting Analysis

AFC Conference Title: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Last week, we saw the Cincinnati Bengals’ resiliency against the Tennessee Titans; however, there was one glaring problem, the offensive line. Joe Burrow was constantly under duress and was sacked nine times.

The Bengals need to avoid allowing Burrow to be hit too often as they face the Chiefs. The good news is that they have an incredible record against Kansas City.

Over their last ten meetings, the Bengals are 7-3 against the Chiefs. Kansas City also has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, allowing 251.95 passing yards per game. Considering the weaknesses the Chiefs have on defense, the Bengals could be a good pick here.

They come in at +7.5, with the total set at 54. We’ll go over our pick against the spread for this game below.

 

NFC Conference Title: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

This game between NFC West rivals is definitely going to be a must-watch. The 49ers claimed a narrow victory over the Packers last week and have a great record against the Rams.

However, even with that record, the 49ers are the underdog here. Part of that is due to the injuries to Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams. Williams is currently listed as out for Sunday. 

Taking that into consideration, we definitely think the Rams will win this game. The bigger question is whether they can cover the spread. Los Angeles has one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, which will help them here. They also have the No.4 defense in the NFL, allowing just 19.52 points per game.

We think this is what will put the Rams into the Super Bowl.

 

Best Conference Round Against the Spread picks

For the AFC Title game, we’ll take the Bengals +7.5 against the Chiefs. This season, the Bengals have gone 7-2 ATS when playing on the road. The Chiefs’ secondary is going to have a tough time covering all of Cincinnati’s weapons.

The Chiefs might win the game, but we think the Bengals will keep this one close. It’d be smart to pair this one with the over as well.

In the NFC, we think the Rams are the best bet against the spread. They’re only -3.5 heading into this one and have pulled off impressive wins this year. The Rams are also great on both sides of the ball, with the No.4 defense in the NFL.

The 49ers might’ve won the two regular-season meetings, but the Rams will win the one that matters. 

AFC Conference against the spread pick: Cincinnati Bengals +7.5, OVER

NFC Conference against the spread pick: Los Angeles Rams -3.5, UNDER

 

 

Previous Betting News

By the time Sunday comes to an end, we will know which two teams will be going head to head in the Super Bowl. We have already seen more than out fair share of surprises on the road to the Conference Championship Games, but are there still more to come. The biggest surprise of this postseason has been the Tennessee Titans, as the #6 seed in the AFC have somehow managed to knock off the #1 and #3 seeds.

Less surprising is the NFC, as we will be seeing the top two seeds square off in that one, with the Green Bay Packers heading to the Bay Area to meet the San Francisco 49ers. There are a lot of betting options available, so we are going to do our best to break both games down, starting with a look at potential NFL betting ATS plays.

 

2020 NFL Conference Championship ATS Betting Picks

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs (-7 ½)

Given that the Titans came into the playoffs as the #6 seed in the AFC and needed to go on the road to face higher seeded teams in the opening two rounds, it’s obvious that they have covered the spread in both games. The Titans have been a fantastic bet against the spread for a couple of months now, going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. That includes being a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played on the road. They are no longer a surprise team, so expect the Chiefs to be well prepared for them this weekend.

If you want to talk about winning streaks against the spread, look no further than the Chiefs. Kansas City are now on a run where they have covered the spread in each of their last 7 games, which includes their 51-31 Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans. At home this season, the Chiefs have gone 6-3 ATS, but it should be noted that they are just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 times that they have hosted the Titans at Arrowhead.

I do have to say that the Chiefs home record against the spread versus the Titans makes me a little nervous, but I am still going to take KC to cover this weekend.

 

2020 Conference Championship Games Betting Trends

• Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
• Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers (-7 ½)

While the Packers have, at time this season, been a little sloppy and inconsistent, they have still proven to be a very good bet against the spread, going 11-6 ATS on the season. They are 5-3 ATS on the road this season and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of January. They were, though, soundly beaten 37-8 in their last game versus the 49ers and are now just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 visits to San Francisco.

The San Francisco 49ers started their playoff run with a very confident looking win over the Minnesota Vikings in a game where they easily covered the spread. The 49ers are now 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and are also a team that is a good bet in the month of January, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in that month.

The 49ers essentially destroyed the Green Bay Packers in their regular season meeting, and while I believe that this one is going to be a little closers, I still like San Francisco to cover.

 

2020 Conference Championship Games Betting Trends

• 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Sunday
• Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in January

 

 

Last Second NFL Conference Championship ATS Picks

Okay NFL pigskin gaming enthusiasts, with just over 48 hours to go before the start of the conference championships, I’m checking in one final time with a pair of ATS picks that are sure to please those last second bettors that are still looking for some expert betting advice.

Okay, with that said, let’s get started with these NFL predictions against the spread.

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Green Bay (12-6) at Atlanta (12-5)

When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 22, 2017
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
NFL Odds: Falcons -4 / Total: 60

Analysis: Simply put, I’ll reiterate what I’ve been saying all week. I like Aaron Rodgers and believe he’s the best quarterback in the game today (sorry Tom Brady), but the fact of the matter is that I like the Atlanta Falcons to get past Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers in their NFC Championship matchup on Sunday.

Nevertheless, I do want to encourage you to back the Packers to get the narrow ATS cover as a slight 4-point road dog, mostly because I believe this contest will be decided by a field goal no matter which team wins. Green Bay has posted a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in their last four road playoff games while also going 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record.

Green Bay has won their last four road games and 11 of their last 20 road dates overall while going 12-8 ATS during the two and a half year span. I say Aaron Rodgers leads Green Bay to the ATS cover, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons win outright to reach Super Bowl 51.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +4 Points

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Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-2)

When:  Sunday, January 22, 2017 at 6:40 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL Odds: New England -6 / Total: 50.5

Analysis: I won’t beat around the bush with my pick on the AFC Championship as I fully expect Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the spread as surprising 6-point road dogs against Tom Brady and a New England Patriots team that isn’t overly explosive offensively this season.

Pittsburgh is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and a bankroll-boosting 13-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games in the month of January. The New England Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record, but a shocking 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference championship matchups.

Mike Tomlin’s squad has gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog between 5.5 and 6.0 points dating back to 2006 and 5-3 ATS over their last eight such contests going back to 2000. With the Underdog in this AFC rivalry going 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings, I say it’s a virtual lock that Pittsburgh gets the ATS cover at the very least!

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +6 Points

 

 

NFL Conference Round ATS Betting Picks

With the 2016 NFL conference championships set to get underway in just over 72 hours, pigskin bettors everywhere are looking to solidify their ATS picks on both intriguing conference clashes.

Thankfully, I’ve got a pair of expert ATS picks that will show why, the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers will both step into the spotlight to revel just why they’ll be road warriors this coming weekend. Now, let’s get started with the updated NFL betting predictions.

 

Green Bay (12-6) at Atlanta (12-5)

When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 22, 2017
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
NFL Odds: Falcons -4 / Total: 60

If you want to know why Aaron Rodgers and company are my top ‘road warriors’ selection, then you should know that the Pack are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games – and a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Not only that, but the Over is 6-1 in Green Bay Packers’ their last seven road games and 4-1 in their last five playoff road games, which tells me they tend to put their fair share of points on the board when they’re away from the comfy confines of Lambeau Field.

Not only that, but the road team in this NFC series has gone 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, not to mention the fact that the Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against the Falcons. Green Bays has won their last four road games and 11 of their last 20 rod dates overall while going 12-8 ATS during the two and a half year span. I say Aaron Rodgers leads Green Bay to the ATS ‘road warrior’ cover!

Pick: Green Bay Packers +4 Points

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Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-2)

When: Sunday, January 22, 2017 at 6:40 PM ET Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL Odds: New England -6 / Total: 50.5

Now, let me tell why Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers will also cash in as road warriors against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. First off, the Steelers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and a bankroll-boosting 13-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games in the month of January.

The Steelers are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games and that doesn’t bode well – until you look at the fact that Mike Tomlin’s squad has gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog between 5.5 and 6.0 points dating back to 2006 and 5-3 ATS over their last eight such contests going back to 2000.

The New England Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record, but Tom Brady and company are also just 1-6 ATS in their last seven Conference Championships games. Last but not least, the Underdog in this AFC rivalry is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings, making the Steelers the pick to cover the nearly touchdown spread at the very least!

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +6 Points

 

 

NFL Conference Round ATS Betting Predictions & Picks

In the NFC Championship, will Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams get the revenge they are looking for after falling to the New Orleans Saints during the regular season?

Over in the AFC, the question is the same for Patrick Mahomes and the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs as they look to hand Tom Brady and the New England Patriots some payback after narrowly falling to their conference counterparts during the regular season.

If you’re an NFL gridiron gamer that is super excited about this weekend’s pair of quickly approaching conference championship games and you’re looking for a bit of assistance to help you with your conference round ATS picks, then you’ve come to the right place!

Let’s get started with some insightful ATS betting information.

First and foremost, away teams have covered the spread this season more than their home counterparts by going 134-122-8 ATS (52.3%). You should also know that, despite their game-day status, favorites have gone just 118-138 ATS (46.09%). Making matters more challenging for New Orleans and Kansas City is the fact that rod underdogs have gone a blistering 93-77-6 (54.7%).

L.A. Rams (14-3) at New Orleans Saints (14-3)

• When: Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 3:05 PM ET
• Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
• TV: FOX

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams (14-3 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 9-8 O/U) got past Dallas 30-22 this past Saturday to narrowly cover the spread as a 7.5-point home favorite as the late-season addition of veteran running back C.J. Anderson paid big dividends once again for L.A. Anderson rushed for a team-high 123 yards and two touchdowns while franchise running back Todd Gurley added 115 rushing yards and one score in the win.

“It’s scary,” Anderson said of joining superstar franchise back Todd Gurley in L.A.’s backfield. “We’ve got two different styles, and we can keep teams off balance. … Playing on the field with Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott, I’m just trying to make my statement and make my stamp in this game, too.”

The Rams average 32.9 points per game to rank second in scoring while allowing 24.0 points per game defensively (20th). Anderson commented on the Ram’s newfound duo in the backfield. The Rams have gone 4-4 ATS in eight road dates this season.

• Rams are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Rams are 21-45 ATS in their last 66 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Rams are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
• Rams are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Rams are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 O/U) used a stupendous defensive effort to come back from a 14-point first quarter deficit to dispatch the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles 20-14 in their NFC divisional round matchup last weekend. Philly had absolutely no answer for Pro Bowl wide receiver Michael Thomas who caught 12 passes for 171 yards and one score. Drew Brees completed 28 of 38 passes for 301 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

“What you saw from him today is what I see every day in practice,” Brees said of Thomas. “He’s a big-time player who wants to be the guy to make plays.”

The Saints average 30.8 points per game to rank a stellar third in scoring while allowing 22.1 points per game defensively (14th). New Orleans has won seven of nine at home this season while going 4-5 ATS in the dome!

• Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• Saints are 48-23-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.

Prediction

Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams might look enticing as a field goal road dog in this contest, seeing as how they want revenge and put up arguably their best defensive performance of the season last weekend. However, I’m going to advise you not to chase fool’s gold and make the simple pick to back Drew Brees and company at home. New Orleans is playing fantastic defense and the more I watch Jared Goff, the more I realize he’s just an okay quarterback that is the byproduct of Sean McVay’s genius offensive system. The Saints have gone a seriously consistent  25-7 ATS in their last 32 home games against a team with a winning road record. New Orleans will win and narrowly cover the chalk in this one!

NFC Championshuip Pick: Saints 34 Rams 28

 

New England Patriots (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

• When: Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 6:40 PM ET
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
• TV: CBS

New England Patriots

The Patriots (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS, 6-11 O/U) completely dominated Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers in their surprising 41-28 win in their AFC divisional matchup last weekend. While Tom Brady had a modest game with just one TD pass, rookie running back Sony Michel led the way to victory by rushing for 129 yards and three touchdowns. Now the Patriots are looking to beat Kansas City again after taking down the Chiefs 43-40 at home in Week 6 as a 3.5-point home fave.

“It’s going to be a good game,” Brady said of the rematch with the Chiefs. “They’re a good team. We played them earlier this year. I know everybody thinks we suck and, you know, we can’t win any games, so we’ll see. It’ll be fun.”

New England averages 27.2 points per game to rank fourth in scoring while limiting the opposition to just 20.3 points per contest defensively to rank seventh overall.

• Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
• Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
• Patriots are 19-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Patriots are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
• Patriots are 2-5 ATS against Kansas City
• Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Championships games.
• Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 1-6-1 O/U) used a fantastic defensive effort to shut down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts en route to an emphatic 31-13 win in the AFC division round last weekend. Patrick Mahomes passed for 278 yards and rushed for one touchdown while running back Damien Williams added 129 rushing yards and another score. Kansas City’s defense limited Luck to just 203 passing yards while holding running back Marlon Mack to 46 yards on nine carries.

“We’re such a different team,” said Mahomes. “We have such young players. We have such confidence we’re going to win every single game.”

The Chiefs average a league-leading 35.3 points per game this season and have won eight of their nine home dates this season.

• Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
• Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
• Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against New England.
• Chiefs are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games on grass.
• Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Prediction

Despite their huge win last weekend, I still don’t trust New England this season as much as I have in the past. Having said that, I genuinely believe the Kansas City Chiefs are the easy pick to get past the Pats and reach Super Bowl 53. New England is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference championship games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on grass.

More importantly, Kansas City has won eight of nine at home while going 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against their AFC counterparts and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against New England. The Chiefs are just too explosive for New England to stop and now, they’ve got the better quarterback in this pairing!

AFC Championship Pick: Chiefs 34 Patriots 27