NFL Green Bay Packers Defense In-Depth Betting Analysis

The Green Bay Packers have to replace a certain guy named Aaron Rodgers under center and that will get all the attention this season, but it won’t matter how good new starting QB Jordan Love is if the defense doesn’t deliver. Let’s take a look at that 2023 defense with Green Bay given an over-under season win total of 7.5 wins on the NFL odds.

2023 Green Bay Packers Defense In-Depth Betting Analysis | MyBookie NFL Preview

Green Bay Packers: 104th season in the NFL
Owner: Green Bay Packers, Inc.
Head Coach: Matt LaFleur
Home Field: Lambeau Field | Green Bay, Wisconsin

Super Bowl Odds: +5200
Odds to win NFC: +2300
Odds to win NFC North: +400
Regular-season wins: 7.5
To make playoffs: No -206, yes +166

Many around the Packers wanted head coach Matt LaFleur to fire defensive coordinator Joe Barry after last year’s 8-9 mark and the team missing the playoffs, but LaFleur didn’t. Barry has six seasons of experience in the NFL as a defensive coordinator (Detroit, 2007-08; Washington, 2015-16; Green Bay, 2021-22) and 21 years of coaching experience in the league.

This season, Barry will have at his disposal eight first-rounders, including this year’s No. 13 overall pick, outside linebacker Lukas Van Ness. Another 17th-place ranking in total defense like last season could spell the end of Barry and force LaFleur to hire the third defensive coordinator of his head-coaching tenure.

With Rashan Gary’s torn ACL exposing a lack of depth, the Packers were expected to use a premium draft pick in 2023 on one of the top edge defenders. The Packers had ample options at No. 13, including Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid and Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones but opted for Van Ness. In two seasons at Iowa, Van Ness totaled 14 sacks as both an interior pass rusher and edge defender. In pass-rushing situations, Van Ness was too quick for most guards, and his bull rush on the edge was uncommon. He possesses violent, heavy hands.

Van Ness has mostly run with the backups at training camp. His reps as a starter have been rare. Van Ness isn’t concerned yet: “It’s just the rotation we have, throwing guys out there and giving them a chance to compete for an opportunity,” Van Ness said over the weekend. “So far, [position coach Jason] Rebrovich says stay at his hip and when a guy is ready to go out, make sure you’re ready. Every time you get that opportunity, make it a good one. To me, it doesn’t mean anything – first, second third-team reps – they’re all valuable opportunities to go out there and play.”

The Packers placed cornerback Eric Stokes and Gary on the active/physically unable to perform list ahead of the opening of training camp. Stokes is working his way back from Lisfranc foot surgery that ended his 2022 season, and Gary is coming off his torn ACL. He may or may not be ready for Week 1.

Gary tore his ACL in Week 9 against the Lions after totaling 32 tackles, 12 quarterback hits and six sacks the first eight games. The Packers’ pass rush was much less effective after Gary went out in early November. It had a 40% pressure rate when Gary was on the field, but that dropped to 32% without Gary. Stokes injured his knee and foot in the same game and required a plate and two screws to fix his foot. He had only 26 tackles — with no passes defensed or interceptions — in his second season.

Defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt was selected No. 28 overall out of Georgia last year but played sparingly as a rookie. He is now expected to play a big role in the defensive line rotation, likely starting alongside Pro Bowler Kenny Clark. The Packers added two more rookies in the trenches in the 2023 NFL Draft with Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks. Along with Wyatt, they have infused youth and speed into the defensive line, providing the team with a much-needed different look.

“I can tell you right now — this defense, we bringing more pressure, we attacking more and we ready to dominate more this year than last year,” Wyatt said.

Green Bay must keep Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander healthy. He had a career-high five interceptions in 2022. He added 14 passes defensed and four tackles for a loss and was named to the All-Pro second team for the second time in the past three seasons.

Beginning in Week 8 last year after combining for just one interception to that point, Alexander and fellow starting CB Rasul Douglas each picked off four passes for a total of eight INTs between them over the last 10 games. Moreover, they each had four interceptions in the fourth quarter, tying for the league lead in that category.

Entering a season where the margin for error has shrunk following the departure of Aaron Rodgers, Alexander is carrying a heavy load defensively. Individually, 15 receivers on Green Bay’s 2023 schedule have at least one 1,000-yard season on their resume.

“It’s just talking to each other, telling each other what we’ve been seeing all game,” Douglas said of their fourth-quarter thievery. “I think that’s why I like playing with Ja.”

The Packers are currently 2-point underdogs for Week 1 in Chicago.

NFL Expert Prediction

Packers under 7.5 wins (7-10 record)

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MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

2023 Green Bay Defense Positions

POS	Starter	Second
Left Defensive End	Kenny Clark	Karl Brooks
Right Defensive End	Devonte Wyatt	Chris Slayton
Left Defensive Tackle	David Bakhtiari	Rasheed Walker
Right Defensive Tackle	Yosh Nijman	Zach Tom
Strongside Linebacker	Rashan Gary	Kingsley Enagbare
Left Inside Linebacker	De’Vondre Campbell	Eric Wilson
Right Inside Linebacker	Quay Walker	Isaiah McDuffie
Weakside Linebacker	Preston Smith	Lukas Van Ness
Right Cornerback	Rasul Douglas	Eric Stokes
Left Cornerback	Jaire Alexander	Keisean Nixon
Strong Safety	Jonathan Owens	Rudy Ford
Free Safety	Darnell Savage	Anthony Johnson Jr.

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