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Fresh off a 50-10 beating they handed the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday, the New England Patriots hope to end the regular season on a high note when they head to Miami to take on the playoff eliminated Miami Dolphins. With a victory and a Buffalo loss, the Pats win the AFC East. Miami has no chance of making the playoffs. But the Fins would like to keep their rivals from the division crown. Which team gets it done? Keep reading for NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for New England at Miami.

NFL Betting Preview for New England at Miami

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Game Odds & Info | NFL Week 18 Betting

When: Sunday, Jan. 9 at 4:25 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV / Streaming: CBS / Paramount +
ATS Odds: New England -6 ½
Moneyline Odds: New England -280 / Miami +230
Over/Under Odds: 40

Why bet on New England versus Miami?

Bill Belichick doesn’t care a lot about playoff seedings. To Bill, it’s more important that his team head into the playoffs playing their best football. In the destruction of the Jaguars last Sunday, Belichick’s team showed they’re gearing up for a deep postseason run. The Patriots head coach won’t allow his team to take it easy even though the chances of winning the division aren’t great because Buffalo plays the Jets.

New England Patriots Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 351.8

Passing Yards: 225.8

Rushing Yards: 126.1

Points Scored: 27.4

Turnovers: 20

New England Patriots Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 311.6

Passing Yards: 192.4

Rushing Yards: 119.3

Points Scored: 16.9

Takeaways: 30

Why bet on Miami versus New England?

Miami’s defense has become a fantastic unit. The Dolphins gave up just 3 points to the Saints in a 20-3 victory on Dec. 27. Overall, the Fins allow just 108.3 rushing yards per, which ranks tenth in the league. Not only that, but Tua Tagovailoa has played well. Tagovailoa’s TD to INT ratio is 8-to-5 in the last 7 games.

Miami Dolphins Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 307.6

Passing Yards: 221.8

Rushing Yards: 85.8

Points Scored: 19.3

Turnovers: 26

Miami Dolphins Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 334.9

Passing Yards: 226.6

Rushing Yards: 108.3

Points Scored: 21.8

Takeaways: 24

Patriots vs Dolphins Relevant Trends

Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite
New England is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
Over is 7-2 in the Patriots’ last 9 versus the AFC
Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Miami
Home team is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 meetings
Under is 7-2 in the Dolphins’ last 9 games

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Final Betting Prediction

It’s amazing that Tua hasn’t thrown more picks. The problem Miami has had all season is that their offensive line isn’t very good.

We must look no further than the NFL Week 17 loss to the Tennessee Titans to see that. The Titans’ defense picked off Tua and sacked him 4 times. Tagovailoa completed 18-of-28.

Not only that, but the Miami defense gave up 198 rushing yard. Teams can get blown out, but the issue handicappers must have with last Sunday’s blowout loss is that Miami had to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

On Sunday, the Dolphins face one of the best defenses in the league with nothing to play for. New England’s defensive line has a massive advantage over Miami’s offensive line. Also, the Fins’ defense will have to find a way to stop New England’s rushing attack and quarterback Mac Jones.

This is a situation where the better team, New England, faces a rival coming off an awful performance. The Dolphins shouldn’t be motivated enough to keep this close, Tagovailoa will be running away from rushers all day, and the Miami defense will find it difficult to stop the Patriots offense. New England wins by at least 10.

NFL Week 18 Betting Pick: New England Patriots

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