Top AFC West Picks for the 2024 Regular Season: Your Winning Strategy

 

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Sure, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are the cream of the crop in the AFC West, but what about their three longtime division rivals? Have the Denver Broncos really found their franchise quarterback in Drew Lock? Can the Los Angeles Chargers succeed in their first year without Philip Rivers under center? Will the Las Vegas Raiders have a successful campaign after remaking their own roster on both sides of the ball? If you’re planning on making an NFL futures odds wager on the potential winner of the AFC West division title in 2020, then I’ve got the expert insight that you’ll need in order to help you in your quest for NFL futures odds success. Let’s get right to it so you can make your bets against their odds to win the AFC West division.

NFL Odds & Picks for AFC West: Title Winner, Favorites, Surprise and Upset

2020 NFL Season | 100th season of National League in the United States

Kansas City Chiefs -350

The Chiefs are absolutely loaded and have as good a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champs as any team in recent memory in my estimation. Not only did Kansas City win a dozen games a year ago, but they have an elite quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, a future Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid and a boatload of speed at the skill positions. Tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek are among the very best players in the league at their respective positions, as is defensive end Chris Jones and safety Tyrann Mathieu. Kansas City finished fifth in scoring last season (28.2 ppg) and a surprising seventh in points allowed (19.3 ppg). It’s a scary thought, but Kansas City could be even better in 2020 than they were a year ago!

Denver Broncos +750

The Broncos went a decent 7-9 last year despite struggling at quarterback – until rookie Drew Lock took over that is. Denver finished the 2019 campaign ranked a dismal 28th in passing and an identical 28th in scoring (17.6 ppg), but they may have found their franchise quarterback if Lock’s late-season play is any indication. Lock went 4-1 in five starts while passing for 1,020 yards with seven TD passes and three interceptions. To improve their lackluster offense, the Broncos signed veteran running back Melvin Gordon, guard Graham Glasgow, tight end Nick Vannett in free agency while drafting former Alabama wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and former Penn State wideout J.K. Hamler with their first two picks in the draft. Denver finished an impressive 10th in points allowed under defensive-minded head coach Vic Fangio and now, the Broncos are definitely a team trending upward heading into 2020. I’m thinking nine wins sounds about right.

LA Chargers +800

The Bolts went a discouraging 5-11 last season while finishing 21st in scoring (21.1 ppg) and 14th in points allowed (21.6 ppg). Now though, things are looking a lot different as L.A. gets set for the upcoming 2020 campaign. The Chargers parted ways with longtime franchise quarterback Philip Rivers and running back Melvin Gordon and drafted gifted rookie Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick while handing the keys to their short-term future to ‘safe’ veteran Tyrod Taylor who will likely open the season under center until Herbert is ready. The Chargers added veteran cornerback Chris Harris Jr., linebacker Nick Vigil, defensive tackle Linval Joseph and tackle Brian Bulaga in free agency while electing former Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray with the 23rd overall pick. In the end, I like the way the Bolts have reshaped their roster and I believe they could very well reach eight or even nine wins in 2020.

Las Vegas Raiders +950

Las Vegas went 6-4 over their first 10 games last season before falling apart over their last half-dozen contests to finish at 7-9 a year ago. The Raiders have a flat-out star in running back Josh Jacobs (1,150 yards), but they finished the 2019 campaign ranked an uninspiring 24th in scoring (19.6 ppg) and an identical 24th in points allowed (26.2 ppg). The good news is that Vegas had one of the best drafts of any team in the league as they nabbed Alabama wideout Henry Ruggs III with the 12th overall pick in the draft before adding Ohio State cornerback Damon Arnette with the 19th overall pick. The Raiders then grabbed Kentucky wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr and South Carolina wideout Bryan Edwards, both in the third round to become the third team in the common draft era to select three receivers within the first three rounds. Las Vegas also signed quarterback Marcus Mariota, tight end Jason Witten, safety Damarious Randall, wide receiver Nelson Agholor, defensive end Carl Nassib and defensive tackle Maliek Collins in free agency. While the Raiders have remade their roster this offseason, the fact of the matter is that they still have a bunch of question marks, starting at quarterback where incumbent starter Derek Carr may or may not beat out Mariota. In the end, the Chiefs are easily the division winner here, while I like Denver as my potential ‘upset’ pick with the LA Chargers not far behind. I guess the Raiders could also surprise, but I’m not too sure whether that surprise will be a gift anyone wants. I see another 7-9 finish coming in 2020 for the Raiders.

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Football is back, and while we are still basically at the start of preseason, the regular season is now very much on the horizon. Some bettors like to wait until the end of the preseason period before making predictions for the season, as you simply never know what type of injury issues might arise in the next month or so. For those of you ready to dive right in, we are going to start looking at the win totals for each team, with the AFC West in the spotlight today. The Kansas City Chiefs come in as the favorite to win it all, which also means that their win total is high. Let’s see if they can cross that big barrier, while also looking at the totals for the other 3 teams in the West to consider in your NFL betting odds.

 

NFL 2023 Season Win Total Over/Under Picks for the AFC West Division

2023 NFL season | 104th season of National Football League in the United States
September 7, 2023–February 11, 2024

 

Writer’s Picks for the 2024 AFC East Totals Picks

Kansas City Chiefs

Regular Season Wins: 11.5
Over: -142
Under: +116

To the surprise of no one, the Chiefs will head into the new season as the favorite to repeat as the Super Bowl champion. This is a team that has done a fantastic job of working within the salary cap to keep the core group in place, which means another year as a serious contender for the Super Bowl. Of course, it is Patrick Mahomes who serves as the leader of this team, and as long as he can stay healthy, the Chiefs are always in with a shot. In the 5 years that Mahomes has been in the league, the Chiefs have won 12 or more games, making the OVER seem like the way to go here.

AFC West Win Total Pick: 11.5 | Bet Chiefs Win Totals
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LA Chargers

Regular Season Wins: 9.5
Over: -121
Under: -101

The win total posted by the bookies for the Chargers certainly makes it appear as though they could be a legitimate challenger for the division. They certainly have their QB in place, with Justin Herbert seemingly getting better with each passing season. Herbert is once again going to put up some gaudy numbers, but can the rest of the team climb on his shoulders to make this a winning season? I don’t see the Chargers winning the division, unless something happens to Mahomes, but they look like a definite Wild Card team. They won 10 games last season and have improved their win total in each of the last 5 seasons. A good OVER bet here.

AFC West Win Total Pick: 9.5 | Bet Chargers Win Totals
MyBookie NFL Betting Props for Regular Season

Denver Broncos

Regular Season Wins: 8.5
Over: -110
Under: -110

A new head coach is in place in the Mile High City, but Sean Payton has made headlines for the wrong reasons this offseason. Will all of that end once the season begins, or will he continue to be a distraction throughout the regular season. My guess is that things will settle down once we get started with meaningful games. Another question that needs to be answered is whether Russell Wilson can have a bounce back year. Offense killed them last season, so any improvement there could take them OVER the posted total.

AFC West Win Total Pick: 8.5 | Bet Broncos Win Totals
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Las Vegas Raiders

Regular Season Wins: 9.5
Over: TBD
Under: TBD

This is something of a transition year for the Raiders, as they will be moving on from Derek Carr and starting the Jimmy G era in Sin City. Garropolo gets a ton of negative press, but this is a guy who has made a habit of finding a way to win, even if he doesn’t always look particularly flashy while doing it. The big question mark is the defense for the Raiders. If they struggle again, we might be looking at the UNDER.

AFC West Win Total Pick: 8.5 | Bet Broncos Win Totals
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Kansas City Chiefs are the +450 favorites on the NFL odds to win Super Bowl 56, and the Chiefs probably will be Super Bowl favorites for the next decade as long as superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes – the clear-cut MVP favorite – stays healthy.

Analysis | AFC West favored Super Bowl 56

Because Kansas City is favored to win its second Super Bowl in the past three seasons, it would also make sense, then, that the favored division to win the Super Bowl is the Chiefs’ AFC West at +250.

Overall, teams currently in the AFC West have combined for eight Super Bowl titles: Three from the Raiders (although obviously none in Las Vegas yet), three from the Broncos and two from the Chiefs. The San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers are yet to win one. The only divisions with more Super Bowl winners are the NFC East with 13 and the AFC East with nine, although most of the AFC East’s are from New England (six).

Mahomes was severely limited by a toe injury in the Super Bowl 55 loss, although it might not have mattered even if Mahomes was 100 percent as good as that Tampa Bay pass rush was. The 2018 NFL MVP has surgery in the offseason and said he was able to “do the things that I needed” at OTAs and the team’s mandatory minicamp. The Chiefs expect Mahomes to be 100 percent for the start of training camp. The Chiefs will return to Missouri Western State University in St. Joseph, Missouri for their annual training camp practices. Camp starts July 28 and runs through Aug. 18.

One key Chiefs player could be facing a multiple-game suspension for this season: Defensive end Frank Clark. In March, Clark was arrested, along with another man, when officers said they found two loaded firearms in their vehicle after a traffic stop in California. Then in June, Clark was arrested in Los Angeles after police saw a submachine gun in his car. Clark’s attorney, Alex Spiro, said the gun belonged to Clark’s bodyguard. Sure it did. Clark could be facing a four-game ban.

Are any of the other three teams in the AFC West capable of winning the Super Bowl? Perhaps with the right breaks. Denver doesn’t appear to have a good enough quarterback to do so with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater battling in camp for the starting job – we are assuming the Broncos will not be able to trade for Aaron Rodgers as that would change everything.

Denver acquired Bridgewater in a trade the day before the 2021 NFL draft began. Bridgewater does have some familiarity with Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, who was a Minnesota Vikings assistant when Bridgewater was there. Lock struggled mightily as the primary starter last year with the Broncos.

The Chargers appear to be a team on the rise under second-year QB Justin Herbert. He was the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The sixth overall pick from the 2020 draft set an NFL rookie record with 31 passing touchdowns, also adding five additional scores (and 234 more yards) on the ground. To protect Herbert, the Chargers added three new starters for the offensive line, signing center Corey Linsley and guard Matt Feiler before using a first-round pick on Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater. The Bolts have an entirely new coaching staff, led by head coach and former Rams DC Brandon Staley.

Las Vegas has yet to play a home game in front of its new fans in Sin City but every game there already is sold out for 2021. This is talented team, no doubt. QB Derek Carr is coming off his third consecutive 4,000 yard season with a career-high passer rating. The Raiders have surrounded him with talent in Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller, free-agent signings John Brown and Willie Snead IV, and second-year receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards.

A Raiders player recently made NFL history by becoming the league’s first openly gay player. That was defensive end Carl Nassib. He signed with the Raiders in 2020 after two seasons in Cleveland and two years in Tampa. He recorded 12.5 sacks during his two seasons with the Bucs. Last year, Nassib had 2.5 sacks in 14 games, five of which he started.

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After claiming their fourth consecutive AFC West division title last season and topping that off by winning Super Bowl 54, the Kansas City Chiefs are clear-cut favorites to win their fifth straight division title in 2020. However, it’s always possible that Kansas City could suffer a Super Bowl hangover and that they could potentially be beat out for their division crown along the way. Following free agency and the recently completed NFL draft, let’s find out what lies in store for the Chiefs and their division rivals and which teams are offering the best value against their AFC West division winning odds.

NFL AFC West Divisional Odds After Draft

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs went 12-4 during the 2019 regular season before going on to win Super Bowl 54. With that said, the Chiefs are back, almost completely intact, though they’ve made a few decent moves this offseason. In addition to their modest free agent signing, head coach Andy Reid stunned almost everyone by selecting LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the final pick in the first round of the NFL draft when it was almost universally expected he’d take Georgia running back D’Andre Swift with the pick. Kansas City also selected TCU tackle Lucas Niang in the third round. Defense is where the Chiefs made most of their offseason moves.

Kansas City put their franchise tag on star defensive end Chris Jones while signing veteran cornerbacks Antonio Hamilton and Bashaud Breeland in free agency. The Chiefs then selected Mississippi State linebacker Willie Gay Jr. in the second round, Louisiana Tech defensive back L’Jarius Sneed in the fourth round, Michigan defensive end Mike Danna in the fifth round and Tulane cornerback Thakarius Keyes in the seventh round. Even if the Chiefs never made a single move to improve their roster this offseason, they’d still be the prohibitive favorite in the AFC in 2020, based mostly on the fact that they have arguably the best quarterback in the game today in Patrick Mahomes.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos went 7-9 in their first year under head coach Vic Fangio and they look poised to take a step forward in 20202. To improve an offense that finished a discouraging 28th in scoring by putting up just 17.6 points per contest,

Denver signed veteran running back Melvin Gordon in free agency while adding gifted Alabama wide receiver Jerry Jeudy with the 15th overall pick in the draft and Penn State wideout K.J. Hamler in the second round. The Broncos were solid on defense in 2019 in finishing 10th in points allowed (19.8 ppg), Denver’s success in 2020 will hinge largely on the play of second-year quarterback Drew Lock after he led the Broncos to a 4-1 mark over their final five games.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers took a huge step backwards from their 12-4 mark in 2018 to record just five wins in 2019. More importantly, they’ll have a new quarterback under center for the first time in ages after parting ways with longtime franchise signal-caller Philip Rivers. Now, the Bolts are likely to turn to veteran Tyrod Taylor to start the season although they picked former Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the draft. Los Angeles also added another immediate starter in former Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray with the 23r overall, pick in the draft and they added former perennial Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris in free agency while putting their franchise tag of tight end Hunter Henry. In a season of change, the Chargers look like a team that will be good, but definitely not great as they wait on Herbert to take the reins at some point in the near future.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders went 7-9 last season in Year 2 of the Jon Gruden era, but they had a solid free agency and draft and that should help them improve an offense that finished 24th in scoring (19.6 ppg) last season. Las Vegas signed veteran wide receiver Nelson Agholor, tight end Jason Witten and quarterback Marcus Mariota in free agency while drafting lightning fast Alabama wide receiver Henry Ruggs II with the 12th overall pick and fellow wide receivers Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) and Bryan Edwards on consecutive picks in the third round.

Las Vegas finished he 2019 campaign ranked an uninspiring 24th in points allowed (26.2 ppg). To improve their generous defense, the Raiders signed veteran safety Damarious Randall, defensive end Carl Nassib, safety Jeff Heath, defensive tackle Maliek Collins and linebackers Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski in free agency. Las Vegas also drafted Ohio State cornerback Damon Arnette with the 19th overall while also selecting Clemson linebacker Tanner Muse in the third round and Louisiana Tech cornerback Amik Robertson in the fourth round.

2020 Division Analysis

There’s not a whole lot of sense in beating around the bush with my pick on this division winner, seeing as how Kansas City is years ahead of their division rivals. Denver and the LA Chargers look like they’ll approach .500 at best, leaving only Las Vegas to really “challenge” Kansas City for division supremacy. While I like many of the Raiders moves this offseason, I think they blew it by passing on CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy in favor of Henry Ruggs III. There are also question marks at quarterback and whether Derek Carr will remain the starter or be supplanted by Marcus Mariota. The bottom line for me when it comes to the AFC West is that, as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are joined at the hip, you can expect Kansas City, to not only contend for the AFC West division crown every year, but Super Bowl titles!

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

 

 

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This coming Thursday, April 23, we are going to see the start of an NFL Draft unlike any we have seen in modern times. Much of the glitz and glamour will be absent, which seems only fitting given the current state of affairs, but the importance of the draft will certainly not be lessened. Every team in the league will be making picks that they hope will make them much stronger than they were last season, although it’s tough to get any stronger than the Kansas City Chiefs were at the end of last season when they won the Super Bowl. It’s up to the rest of the teams in the division, not to mention the entire NFL, to play catch-up. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the teams in the AFC West might do in the NFL Draft and their odds.

AFC West Mock Draft Odds For 2020 Draft

Kansas City Chiefs

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs come into the 2020 NFL Draft with just 5 picks, but with very few serious holes to fill, that may not be too big of an issue for them. It’s tough to actually pin down where the Chiefs need help, so this draft will be all about adding depth. The Chiefs pick at #32 in the opening round, with the consensus seeming to be that they will go with OL Cesar Ruiz. Linebacker picks seem to be the main need for KC, although they might also pick up another WR in the later rounds if they want to take home again the AFC West title.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos finished the regular season at 7-9 last year, and while that left them second in the division after tiebreakers, it still left them well outside the playoff picture. It’s no secret that this team needs some serious help on the offensive side of the football, with GM John Elway making it abundantly clear that a WR will be their first pick in the draft. There are going to be a ton of WR picks going early, so expect the Broncos to have either CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, or Henry Ruggs as their opening pick, depending on hoe the draft plays out. LB’s on the offensive and defensive side are also a must have for Denver.

Las Vegas Raiders

The raiders will have their inaugural season in Las Vegas this coming season, with that move potentially having an impact on who they pick first. If the Raiders want to go with a flashy pick in the first round, they could well choose a WR from what is a very deep pool. There has been talk that Jerry Jeudy might end up in the silver and black if they do go that route. This is a team that also needs help in the secondary, so we might see a less sexy pick to get the draft started, which could be CB CJ Henderson. LA also needs help at safety and at the LB spot, so look for those in the later rounds.

LA Chargers

Last season proved to be the end of an era for the LA Chargers, as it was when they decided that it was finally time to part ways with QB Phillip Rivers. It was a disappointing season for the Chargers, who finished last in the West with a 5-11 record. With that in mind, you have to believe that LA will be looking at drafting a QB with their first pick, with either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert the most likely candidates. Then again, they might also choose to roll the dice with Tyrod Taylor at QB, which would then mean that an OL would be their first pick. Look for them to also go with a CB and a WR, regardless of how the QB situation plays out.

 

 

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You might not have known it, but the AFC West has produced at least one team that has won a minimum of a dozen games in seven of the last eight seasons, including last season when the Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs went 12-4. Having said that, the AFC West also produced a trio of teams last season that fall failed to record winning records. Following a flurry of roster-altering transactions that saw a bunch of change in the AFC West, let’s find out how each AFC West resident did in free agency and what could lie in store for them in 2020.

AFC West Free Agency Thoughts Week 1

The defending Super Bowl champions didn’t make many moves in free agency, but the ones they did, they nailed. Kansas City Chiefs slapped the franchise tag on Pro Bowl defensive lineman Chris Jones and picked up the option on talented running back Damien Williams, while parting ways with cornerback Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah. The Chiefs will have to pay quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the near future and really, they have a roster that is fairly rock-solid just as it was when they stepped off the field as Super Bowl 54 champs.

Los Angeles Chargers parted ways with longtime franchise quarterback Philip Rivers, but I like head coach Anthony Lynn’s plan to go with veteran Tyrod Taylor, at least, for the immediate future. The Bolts also added veteran guard Bryan Bulaga and franchised tagged talented tight end Hunter Henry. LA also re-signed play-making running back Austin Ekeler and made a great pair of additions on the defensive side of the ball by signing veteran cornerback Chris Harris jr. and defensive tackle Joseph Linval. Overall, the Bolts had a fantastic free agent signing period.

Las Vegas Raiders made a pair of great addictions on the defensive side of the ball by signing veteran linebackers Nick Kwiatkoski and Cory Littleton. Both players excel against the run and pass equally well and will help improve Oakland’s overly generous defense from a year ago. Oakland also made two more solid moves on defense by signing veteran edge rusher Carl Nassib and safety Jeff Heath, while taking a flier on cornerback Eli Apple. On the offensive side of the ball, Oakland brought in former No. 2 overall draft pick (2015) Marcus Mariota to either motivate or supplant starter Derek Carr. The Raiders also brought in future Hall of Fame tight end Jason Witten who should provide some quality depth even if he doesn’t start. Last, but not least, Oakland took a flier of failed former Philadelphia Eagles wideout Nelson Agholor. Overall, the Raiders get a very good grade!

The Denver Broncos may or may not need a quarterback depending on how Drew Lock looks early on in 2020, but Denver did add former Pro Bowl running back Melvin Gordon and veteran guard Graham Glasgow while slapping the franchise tag on gifted safety Justin Simmons. The bad news is that the broncos also lost veteran cornerback Chris Harris Jr. and veteran center Connor McGovern. Denver traded a fourth-round draft pick for veteran cornerback A.J. Bouye who will be looking to prove himself after a down 2019 and they traded a seventh-round pick for underrated defensive tackle Jurrell Casey. Overall, it looks like the Broncos had a mediocre free agent signing period.

 

 

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Some division have ridiculous odds on favorites. New England, year in and year out, is a huge favorite to win the AFC East. Other divisions have fair odds on ever team that plays in the division. The AFC West is one of those divisions.

The L.A. Chargers are favored at +150. The Las Vegas Raiders are a solid second choice at +225. Check out more about the favored Bolts along with info on the smart and longshot picks.

2018 AFC West NFL Odds & Picks

Favorite: Los Angeles Chargers

No team was as hot heading to the off season as the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bolts won 9 of their final 12 games. The 3 losses were to playoff teams: 13 to 21 to New England in Week 8, 17 to 20 to Jacksonville in Week 10, and 13 to 30 to Kansas City in Week 15. The Chargers probably should have beaten the Jaguars.

In any case, LAC is one of the hottest teams to not only win the AFC West, but to also win the Super Bowl. The Chargers still play in front of only 27,000 fans, though. That could be a detriment to their chances of winning the division. Not only that, but the schedule doesn’t ensure a fast start.

Smart: Kansas City Chiefs

What’s wrong with the Kansas City Chiefs? The Chiefs did change quarterbacks. That might not be a bad thing. QB Patrick Mahomes can throw the ball 60-yards with accuracy. He’s got some seriously talented players around him in TE Travis Kelce, wide receivers Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill, and RB Kareem Hunt.

The real question about KC is how their defense will play. The Chiefs traded their top defender, cornerback Marcus Peters, to the L.A. Rams. That might not be such a bad thing. The Chiefs were terrible against the pass last season. So, adding some solid, if not spectacular, players at the linebacking position like Anthony Hitchens and Reggie Ragland to help pressure QBs should help KC more than having a shutdown corner.

Longshot: Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos have a huge shot of winning the AFC West. The fact that they offer the best odds of the 4 teams is a major plus. How can Denver take it? First, they signed one of the better free agent quarterbacks on the market in Case Keenum. Keenum doesn’t throw interceptions. He also completes a high percentage of his passes.

Second, the Denver defense should be better this season than last season. DE Bradley Chubb, the can’t miss player in this year’s NFL Draft, will play on the opposite side of Von Miller. That should make for the best DE combo in the NFL.

 

 

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With a pair of double-digit winning teams and one nine-win team, the AFC West was undoubtedly the best and most competitive division in all of football in 2016. Now, with the 2017 NFL regular season getting closer by the day, the AFC west looks like it will be just as competitive as it was a year ago, if not more so. Hence, make sure to review each one of these NFL betting odds to win the AFC West division and make the best selections for this season’s matches.

Can Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders fulfill all of the expectations that everybody is placing on them as division co-favorites and Super Bowl 52 hopefuls or will Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs beat out the Raiders to bag their second straight division title this coming season. Moreover, are these teams getting an upset for the division title despite the fact they are two of the top Super Bowl title AFC contenders? If you’ve got questions, then I’ve got answers.

Expert NFL Picks to Win the AFC West

The Favorite: Oakland Raiders +180

While the Raiders (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) are co-favorites to win the AFC West in 2017, I’ve got some reservations just like I did a year ago when I picked the Chiefs to bag the division title. Yes, quarterback Derek Carr is an undeniable superstar in the making and so is fleet-footed wide receiver Amari Cooper (1,153 yards). The Raiders have an explosive offense that ranked sixth overall, 13th in passing, sixth in rushing and seventh in scoring (26.0 ppg) last season and they could be even better after adding veteran running back Marshawn Lynch this offseason.

However. I’m not real sure that Oakland improved their defense enough after finishing 26th overall, 24th against the pass, 23rd against the run and 20th in points allowed (24.1 ppg). I do like the addition of Ohio State cornerback Gareon Conley with the 24th overall pick in the draft and safety Obi Melifonwu with the 56th overall pick, but if last season was any indication, Oakland has a long way to go to improve its defense to a championship kind of level. I guess it’s possible the Raiders could beat a bunch of their 2017 opponents by simply putting a bunch of points on the board, but it’s clearly no way to try to win a Super Bowl and if you don’t believe me, just as the Atlanta Falcons.

The Smart Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +180

Despite winning the AFC West last season, the Kansas City Chiefs (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS) aren’t getting a whole lot of love as they get set for the upcoming 2017 season. No matter, I think Kansas City is the ‘smart’ pick to win the division, mostly because they have the best combination of offense and defense.

The Chiefs have a modest offense, but they did manage to finish a respectable 13th in scoring last season (24.3 ppg) under ‘play-it-safe’ veteran quarterback Alex Smith, but that’s not the real reason I like Kansas City. You see, for me, it is defense that still wins championships (just ask the Patriots) and I love the fact that the Chiefs brought back Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry and have arguably the best cornerback in the game today in Marcus Peters and some more Pro Bowl-caliber defensive stars in linebackers Justin Houston and to a slightly lesser degree, Dee Ford.

While I didn’t like Reid moving up in the draft to take Texas Tech star Patrick Mahomes with the 10th overall pick when Clemson superstar Deshaun Watson was still on the board, I did like their selection of Villanova defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon with the 59th overall pick and addition of underrated Toledo running back Kareem Hunt with their third round pick. After finishing seventh in points allowed (19.4 ppg) a year ago while battling injuries and missed games from several of their key defensive players, the Chiefs could really surprise in 2017.

Kansas City Chiefs Team Statistics

The Longshot: Los Angeles Chargers +380

It’s a shame it took so long for the now, Los Angeles Chargers (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS) to give gun-slinging veteran quarterback Philip Rivers another elite wide receiver, but he certainly has a stud in former Clemson wide receiver Mike Williams who the Bolts grabbed with the seventh overall pick in the draft. I also like the fact that the Chargers used their second and third-round picks on guards Forrest lamp and Dan Feeney and they are adding veteran Russell Okung to help shore up an offensive line that it’s been pretty mediocre for the last couple of years at the very least and has both, failing to protect Rivers or open up many holes for gifted running back Melvin Gordon.

The bad news is that the Chargers didn’t do nearly enough to improve a defense that ranked a pitiful 29th in points allowed last season (26.4 ppg) although there is some good news though in the fact that Los Angeles lost four games by a field goal or less and may have had the best offseason coaching hires by naming former Bills running backs coach Anthony Lynn as head coach, who in turn, hired Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator and Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator.

Yes, the Chargers are real longshots to get around their three longtime AFC West division rivals, but they’ve got a legitimate star at quarterback and now appear to be heading in the right direction with their roster at long last.

 

 

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Even with their two starting quarterbacks from last season no longer available, the Broncos have opened the 2016 NFL odds and lines in most online sportsbooks as the betting favorites to win the AFC West title. Will the Broncos survive in the division without a steady quarterback, or does the absence of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler mean the end of Denver’s reign in the AFC West division? It’s too early to give a surefire bold prediction right now, but we will do our best to guide you on what to expect from the Broncos and the remaining members of the AFC West division in the preview below.

Let’s Take a Look at the 2016 AFC West Expert Picks

The Favorite Betting Pick To Win the AFC West: Denver Broncos (+140)

With five straight AFC West championships since 2011 and an absolutely rock-solid defense that compares to the best of the best in history books, the Broncos don’t need any motivation to prove that they are for real. After all, the majority of the betting public doubted them all year in 2015 and criticized their offense, yet they still managed to make plays all the way to the Super Bowl 50 Championship. That being said, it remains to be seen what Mark Sanchez and Paxton Lynch will bring to the table offensively. Truth-be- told, Sanchez has been an average QB at best while Lynch– though talented—looks a tad too green to be trusted in Denver’s offense. But then again, with offensive maestro Gary Wayne Kubiak to give the offense a sense of direction and an underrated Denver running game to support the passers, the Broncos may just end up lifting the AFC West title for the sixth straight year.

The Smartest Betting Pick To Win the AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (+150)

I was tempted to have the Raiders as the smart pick here, but I remembered that the Chiefs are All The Way Up in their rebuilding agenda, going by their showcase in the second half of the season and their impressive cameo in the AFC playoffs. If Alex Smith can get just a little better in the offense and stop playing conservative football that often puts too much pressure on the defense, Kansas City could easily be the team to beat in the AFC West, if they aren’t that already. FYI, of all teams in this division, KC has the most balance, with the offense and defense both looking primed to rank in the top-10 in the league this year.

The Longshot Betting Pick To Win the AFC West: Oakland Raiders (+225)

This pick is barely a surprise to many of you. Matter of fact, I’d understand if you feel that the Raiders should be placed somewhere better than a longshot. The Derek Carr-led offense is filled with dependable pieces in the running game (see Pro Bowl running back Latavius Murray) and passing game (hello Amari Cooper and gang) while coach Jack Del Rio’s experience as a former linebacker in the NFL and a linebackers’ coach in Baltimore has seen Oakland’s defense get considerably better since he was hired in January 2015.

Despite all that, and the much-trumpeted splashy offseason by the Raiders, it takes more than just talent and good coaching to be a good team. Factors like motivation, experience and ability to cope with devastating injuries are just as important in the winning process, and last I checked, the Raiders don’t particularly ace these latter categories. So whereas I fully support the idea that Oakland is well-set for a breakout season and going above the .500 mark should be within strong realms of possibility, I’ll advise a cautious approach when it comes to picking the Raiders as potential AFC West winners, unless of course you are doing so on the sole ticket of them being solid longshots.

Sorry San Diego fans, I’ve heard everything you’ve been saying about Philip Rivers being a top quarterback (and I fully agree with such observations), but with barely any improvements in your anemic defense, you won’t be finishing anywhere near the ceiling of this division.

2016 AFC West Predictions

With Denver adjusting to a new quarterback at the start of the season, I expect Kansas City to take full advantage of that and get an early lead that will eventually prove to be the difference when the Broncos settle down offensively in the second half of the season. Simply put, the Chiefs are therefore my winning pick for the division (most likely doing so with double-digits); with Denver finishing second (around 9 or 10 wins); Oakland coming a close third with 8 or 9 wins, and San Diego repeating as the cellar-dweller, though with one or two more wins than it recorded in its 4-win 2015 campaign.

My 2016 AFC West Winning Pick: Kansas City

 

 

Previous Betting News

The AFC West, I suppose, gets to claim it’s the NFL’s best division entering the 2016 season. After all, it houses the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. The division has now sent teams to the Super Bowl 16 times beginning with Super Bowl I vs. Green Bay. Entering 2016, the Broncos and Raiders lead in Super Bowl wins with 3-5 and 3-2 records, respectively; the Chiefs are 1-1, while the Chargers went winless in Super Bowl XXIX in their only title appearance. Who wins the AFC West this year? Here are the teams’ NFL betting lines.

Our Inside Look at the NFL Betting Odds & Picks for AFC West Preview

Kansas City Chiefs (+185)

The Chiefs ended the 2015 regular season playing better than anyone, winning their final 10 games. But they finished second in the division behind Denver and haven’t won it since 2010. So it’s interesting they are the slight favorites. Great defense, even though star linebacker Justin Houston could miss the entire season due to a knee injury — at best, he misses the first six games. Star running back Jamaal Charles also is coming off a serious injury that ended his 2015 season early. I’m just not sure if QB Alex Smith is good enough to win a division title. Smith’s strengths are his toughness and mobility. He will be helped, as will the Chiefs’ offense as a whole, if Charles can remain healthy coming off last season’s ACL surgery. The Chiefs have also tinkered with the offensive line during offseason workouts. The Chiefs were middle of the road last season — 16th — in net yards gained per pass attempt, at 6.3.

Denver Broncos (+195)

The Broncos won the AFC West for a fifth straight year last season but of course lost future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning to retirement, plus a few key defensive players in free agency. Super Bowl MVP and linebacker Von Miller says he’s ready to holdout the entire season if he doesn’t get a new extension, but few believe that. But this all comes down to the quarterback position. Manning never quite found his usual level of consistent proficiency at quarterback last season, but his teammates believed in him. And perhaps most important, they believed in him in the biggest moments of games. Mark Sanchez is the likely Week 1 starter.

Oakland Raiders (+250)

Oakland hasn’t won the division since 2002, which was the team’s last winning record. But the Raiders have the best young talent in the division and are clearly on the rise. They have the best QB/WR duo in Derek Carr and Amari Cooper. In part because of a foot injury, Cooper hit the rookie wall hard last season, managing more than 20 yards just once in his final four games. Now healthy and more comfortable in the offense, Cooper should take a step forward this season. He and Carr have been working out much of the offseason.

San Diego Chargers (+1000)

Can the Bolts go from worst-to-first in what could be their final season in the city of San Diego? Possible but not very likely. The offense should be pretty good, but the Bolts rely too much on the pass. QB Philip Rivers is still playing at a high enough level to anchor a playoff team. But 661 attempts — that’s how many times he threw in 2015 — is too many. Only one of the six quarterbacks who finished with at least 600 attempts last season was in the playoffs — Tom Brady. Plus that San Diego defense is really weak.

 

 

Previous Betting News

The Denver Broncos may have won the AFC West division title last season en route to their first Super Bowl title since legendary quarterback John Elway retired following the 1999 season, but by taking giving a look at the odds to win Super Bowl, you will figure out that the defending champs are certainly no lock to repeat as division champs for several reasons.

The Broncos will have some legitimate company in the race for first place in the AFC West and could very be overtaken by at least one rival, if not two. Now, let’s take a look at how I expect the AC West division to pan out in 2016.

Early 2016 AFC West NFL Betting Prediction

Denver Broncos

I’m going to get right to the point by saying that Denver will be hard-pressed to duplicate their success from a year ago, mostly because they have a pretty jacked up situation right now at quarterback. Denver was banking on backup Brock Osweiler taking over for the retired Peyton Manning in 2016, but those plans went haywire when Osweiler signed a big-money deal with Houston.

Now the Broncos will look to reach the double-digit win mark with mediocre veteran Mark Sanchez starting, if he doesn’t get immediately surpassed by rookie first round pick Paxton Lynch. Yes, the Broncos will still have an elite defense, but Denver face a semi-difficult schedule in 2016 and will get every team’s best as the league’s defending champions. Right now, I’m thinking 9-7 sounds about right for John Elway’s team!

Kansas City Chiefs

Andy Reid has built a perennial winner in Kansas City (11-5) and the Chiefs are my pick to win the AFC West in 2016. Dual threat running back Jamal Charles will be back after missing virtually the entire 2015 season and that will open up the offense for Alex Smith and the passing attack. I believe it’s quite possible that the Chiefs could run the table at home in 2016 while losing road games against Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Carolina to potentially finish with 13 wins, though I think 11 or 12 is more likely. Either way, Kansas City is my AFC West division winner in 2016.

Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders (7-9) are finally a franchise heading in the right direction! I love last season’s addition of veteran head coach Jack del Rio and believe that quarterback Derek Carr is poised for his best season so far. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that Oakland faces a very daunting schedule in 2016 with non-division home dates against Houston, Carolina, and Indianapolis on the docket. Still, with Oakland pulling off a successful free agent signing period and draft, I’ve think it’s quite possible Oakland wins eight games to reach .500 for the first time in ages.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers (4-12) went backwards in a big way in 2015 and I don’t see them improving all that much this coming season even though Philip Rivers is still very good under center. First of all, the Bolts may have blown it big-time by drafting Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa with the third overall pick despite his unimpressive performance at the NFL Scouting Combine. While San Diego did make a few decent free agent signings, I don’t think they’ll be nearly enough to help them get back to being legitimate contenders for the AFC West title, at least not this coming season. If all goes well, the Bolts could win eight games. The more likely scenario however is that they win six or seven at best!

 

 

Previous Betting News

The Denver Broncos may have won the AFC West title last season en route to their first Super Bowl title since John Elway retired following the 1999 season, but the defending champs look like they could be hard-pressed to simply reach the double-digit win mark in 2016. Thanks to the expert NFL betting lines analysis you’re about to get on the 2016 Total Win Odds, you’re going to find out, not only whether the Broncos have what it takes to win the AFC West in 2016, but the likely win totals for each AFC West Super Bowl hopeful. Okay, with that said, let’s rock and roll!

Betting Predictions on the 2016 NFL Season AFC West Win Totals

Denver Broncos (9.5)

The Broncos (12-4) may have won it all this past season, but they’re going to have a difficult time duplicating that success thanks to the retirement of Peyton Manning and departure of backup Brock Osweiler. Now the Broncos will look to reach the double-digit win mark, but they may have mediocre veteran Mark Sanchez leading them and that simply doesn’t bode well if you ask me. Still, with an elite defense, the Broncos could surprise in 2016. Now, let’s find out if they will.

I’ve got Denver losing home games against Carolina and Indianapolis in their first two games of the season before dropping other home dates against Kansas City and New England. I also have the Broncos losing road games at Cincinnati, San Diego, Oakland, New Orleans and Kansas City to finish at either 7-9 or potentially 8-8. Either way, the new-look Broncos will struggle to reach the 10-win plateau in 2016.

The Pick: Denver 7-9/Under

Kansas City Chiefs (9.0)

Andy Reid has built a perennial winner in Kansas City (11-5) and they could fly higher than ever in 2016 after winning 11 games last season despite not having dual threat running back Jamal Charles for virtually the entire 2015 campaign. Now, let’s find out why I believe the Chiefs are a lock selection against their 2016 win total odds.

I’ve got Alex Smith and the Chiefs potentially running the table at home in 2016 while losing road games against Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Carolina to easily to their 2016 win total odds by finishing at 13-3 or a more realistic 12-4 or 11-5. No matter, the Chiefs easily reach the 10-win mark!

The Pick: Kansas City 12-4/Over

Oakland Raiders (7.5)

The Oakland Raiders (7-9) are undoubtedly a team on the upswing after winning seven games last season. The Raiders finally have a head coach and a front office with a plan, making them one of the most attractive teams in all of football as far as possible improvement is concerned in 2016. Now, let’s find out if Oakland can reach .500 in 2016.

I’ve got Derek Carr and company losing road games against Baltimore, Kansas City, San Diego and Denver while dropping home games against Houston, Carolina, and Indianapolis to finish with a winning record for the first time since Jess was a baby. Seriously though, the Raiders easily win eight games to top their 2016 win total odds.

The Pick: Oakland 9-7/Over

San Diego Chargers (7.0)

San Diego (4-12) took a huge step backwards in 2015, but they could rebound in a big way if all goes well. The Bolts still have an elite quarterback in Philip Rivers and a running back that should make great strides this coming season in Melvin Gordon. Will they be enough to help San Diego reach eight wins in 2016? Let’s find out!!

I’ve got Philip Rivers and company losing road games against Kansas City, Indianapolis, Oakland, Atlanta, Denver, Houston and Carolina while losing one home games against Kansas City to finish at 8-8 and narrowly OVER their 2016 win total odds.

The Pick: San Diego 8-8/Over