3 Reasons to Bet the Under for Super Bowl LVIII

Previous Betting News

We are in the final few days before we get to enjoy what should be a very exciting Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs, who are appearing in the big game for the first time in 50 years, will be squaring off against the San Francisco 49ers. There are going to be countless ways to wager on this game, with everything from the length of the national anthem to the first score all up for grabs in the prop bet section. For the purposes of this piece, though, we are going to solely focus on the point total, and the UNDER in particular. We will be looking at reasons for betting the OVER in a separate piece, but for now, let’s look at 3 reasons why you might want to play the UNDER in Super Bowl LIV.

3 Reasons to Bet the Under for Super Bowl LIV

The Kansas City Chiefs and the UNDER

Over the course of the season and the playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs have gone 10-8 O/U, so they are certainly leaning a little more towards the OVER here. If we look at the games that the Chiefs started as a favorite, which they will do this coming Sunday, the results are more of the same, with the O/U in those matchups sitting at 8-7.

While it has been the OVER that has hit in both playoff games for Kansas City, it is worth looking back at the final few weeks of the season. The Chiefs defense got hot, which helped the UNDER hit in 5 of their last 6 regular season games. Given the Chiefs offensive prowess, the UNDER is always a bit of a gamble.

The San Francisco 49ers and the UNDER

The 49ers have a very similar record to that of the Chiefs wen we talk about the point total this season, going 9-8-1 O/U through the regular season and the playoffs. Again, this would suggest that the OVER would be the play to make here, but things slide in the favor of the UNDER, just a little, when you look at the 49ers as an underdog this season.

In those 5 games, the O/U came in at 2-3, so still not an entirely convincing argument for the UNDER to be found there. While the Super Bowl is a neutral site game, both teams taking part are assigned as either the home or away team. The 49ers are listed as the away team, and while this particular stat should not be taken too seriously, they were 3-4-1 in road games this season.

Historical Data

The point total for Super Bowl LIV is currently sitting at 54 ½, which could well be seen as a pretty big point total for a championship game. If we look at the previous 53 Super Bowls, we see that only 15 of those games have gone over that point total. Simple math tells us that 38 of the 53 games have seen less than 54 ½ points scored, which is a pretty convincing argument for the UNDER.

Previous Betting News

We are now only a few days away from the spectacle that is the Super Bowl, and there is already a lot of talk that we might be in for a shootout that would make the events at the OK Corral seem like a minor skirmish. The bookies tend to agree with this notion, as they have set the OVER/UNDER at 59 points, which is the highest total ever for the championship game. That is a big number for the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons to attain, yet everyone that I have spoken to seems to agree that the total will be eclipsed quite easily. I’m going to leave my predictions for articles later this week, and for now, I’m going to look at 3 reasons as to why this game might fall UNDER the total and before you wager on NFL playoffs, cash in on the updated Super Bowl.

3 Reasons To Bet The UNDER In 2017 NFL Super Bowl 51

Two High Scoring Teams Doesn’t Always Equal A High Scoring Game

We all assume that a pair of high-powered offenses are simply going to go out and do what they always so when the Super Bowl rolls around. This isn’t always the case, though, as you quite often get one defensive unit rising to the occasion and slowing the other team down. Yes, the Falcons are the highest scoring team in the league, but let’s not forget that the New England Patriots have the best defense in the league. You only need a few big defensive stops to keep points off the board, which can have a direct effect on a point total that is set this high. If you need proof of this, just look at the last time the point total was in the 50’s. That came in Super Bowl 44 when Drew Brees and Peyton Manning went head to head. The Saints and Colts had two of the best offenses ever assembled, but still fell short of the 57-point total, with the Colts only managing 17 points.

Big Game Jitters from the Falcons

The New England Patriots are an organization that has made a habit of heading to the Super Bowl, so they will be well aware of the pressure that comes with the big game. This is not something that can be said for Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Keep in mind that prior to this season, there were serious questions about Ryan’s ability to get the job done in the postseason. Yes, he has looked calm and poised in the playoffs this year, but better QB’s than him have come unglued when playing in the big one, especially for the first time.

More Field Goals than TD’s

While the OVER/UNDER number has been set high because of the play of both of these teams offensively, it also has to be said that part of the reason for the big number is down to the “bend, but don’t break” philosophy of both defenses. Both teams are going to give up yards, but if they batten down the hatches in the red zone, we could be looking at a lot of field goals hitting the board. You have just 3 big drives ending in FG’s instead of TD’s, you are looking at 12 points shaved off the game total. This seems like the most likely way the score will stay UNDER in SB51.