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The New England Patriots head to Minnesota playing some of their best football of the season. The Pats’ defense has become the NFL’s top unit. Minnesota hosts the Patriots on Thanksgiving Night Football after their worst loss of the season in week 10. Can the favored Vikings bounce back? Or will the Patriots signal to the rest of the league that they’re a Super Bowl contender? Check out NFL Lines, analysis, and a free pick for Patriots at Vikings.

NFL Week 12 Betting Preview for New England Patriots at Minnesota

Thursday Night Football: New England vs Minnesota Odds and Match Info

When: Thursday, Nov. 24 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
TV / Streaming: NBC / Peacock
ATS Odds: Minnesota -2.5
Moneyline Odds: New England +116 / Minnesota -142
Over/Under Odds: 42.5

Why bet on New England versus Minnesota?

The Patriots are on fire. New England has won 5-of-7 and 3 straight. When it comes to spread lines, Bill Belichick’s squad is performing even better, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7.

For the Pats, success starts on the defensive side of the ball. New England has allowed just 3 points in their last couple of games, a 26-3 victory over Indianapolis and a 10-3 win versus the New York Jets.

New England Patriots Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 317.6

Passing Yards: 202.2

Rushing Yards: 115.4

Points Scored: 21.3

Turnovers: 17

New England Patriots Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 302.8

Passing Yards: 188.3

Rushing Yards: 114.5

Points Scored: 16.9

Takeaways: 15

Why bet on Minnesota versus New England?

Up until the embarrassing loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Vikings had won 7 straight and 8-of-9. A single loss doesn’t make a season. Almost as important?

Minnesota was bound to bounce after rallying to beat the Washington Commanders in week 9 and producing an even more impressive rally victory against Buffalo on the road in NFL Week 10. The Vikings will show up with more energy versus the Patriots than they did in the loss against the Cowboys.

Minnesota Vikings Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 338.5

Passing Yards: 234.9

Rushing Yards: 103.6

Points Scored: 22.9

Turnovers: 11

Minnesota Vikings Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 388.6

Passing Yards: 267.3

Rushing Yards: 121.6

Points Scored: 23.1

Takeaways: 16

Patriots at Vikings Relevant Trends

Patriots are 6-1 ATS int heir last 7 games
New England is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games
Under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 on field turf
Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on a Thursday
Over is 6-0 in the Vikings’ last 6 after a double-digit home loss

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings Final Betting Prediction

Minnesota should play much better against New England than they did in the 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in their last. But even if Minny plays better, it won’t mean they will win and cover.

The Vikings face a tough defense on Thursday. Bill Belichick has his D playing like the best team in the league. Also, if the ball had bounced a different way for the Vikings in week 9 and week 10, Minnesota would be on a 3-game losing streak instead of entering this matchup having won 2 of their last 3.

New England’s offense isn’t great, but it’s good enough and the Vikings’ D allows over 23 points per game on average. The Patriots win their fourth straight.

NFL Week 12 Pick: New England Patriots +116