Denver vs Golden State, Game 5 Prediction & Betting Tips

The Denver Nuggets avoided a first-round sweep in their Western Conference playoff series vs. Golden State but are heavy underdogs on the NBA odds in Wednesday’s Game 5 back in San Francisco as the Dubs should finish things off.

How to Bet Nuggets at Warriors NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 10 PM ET
Where: Chase Center
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Warriors -9 (total 226)

Why Bet on Denver?

The Nuggets saved their season with a 126-121 home win on Sunday. Nikola Jokic played had a typical great game with 37 points, eight rebounds and six assists. No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, so the Nuggets still face long odds. That being said, they managed to avoid getting swept on their home court. While Jokic did rack up seven turnovers on the day, he was nearly unstoppable otherwise. And he produced the game’s most important assist, finding Will Barton in the corner for what proved to be the game-sealing 3-pointer with 8.3 seconds remaining.

Monte Morris had his best game of the series with 24 points and five assists. After scoring no more than 12 points in any of the first three games he pumped in 24, playing with far more aggressiveness on the offensive end of the floor. Barton shot just 2-of-7 from the field, so a far more aggressive Morris was required in Game 4.

Aaron Gordon tallied 21 points and six rebounds. Gordon was given the task of defending Jordan Poole from the start, and this approach ensured that he would be engaged immediately. And the move worked, with a more aggressive Gordon scoring those 21 points while also getting into an early confrontation with Draymond Green.

Bones Hyland had 15 points and seven assists. Coming off a five-point effort in Game 3 on Thursday, the rookie had his best playoff game to date, finishing as a team-best plus-13 in 20 minutes of action off the bench. During a 65-second span in the second quarter, Hyland drilled a three-pointer on three consecutive possessions, helping push the Nuggets’ lead up to 17 points.

The big adjustment Michael Malone and the Nuggets made was inserting Austin Rivers over Jeff Green in the lineup more as Rivers logged 36 minutes to Green’s 16 minutes. Rivers played well defensively on Steph Curry and Poole. Even though Curry did what he usually does — 33 points off the bench — Rivers made life much tougher on him, which can be contributed to the physicality in which he played defensively: “Our physicality was the highest it’s been all series,” Rivers said following the Nuggets victory.

Denver has never won a playoff game in Golden State, owning an 0-4 road record.

“Going back there, we see they’re beatable,” Morris said. “They’re a helluva team. But when we play our style of basketball and make it tough and make them see bodies — they are going to make tough shots — but we know if we play our brand of basketball and bring the energy, we give ourselves a chance. And that is why I think it is going to be different going back.”

Why Bet on Golden State?

Stephen Curry once again came off the bench for the Warriors and finished with a team-high 33 points in the Game 4 loss. However, he only shot 10-of-23 from the field, including 3-of-11 from beyond the arc. He also missed four free throws for the first time in his career. It was indeed uncharacteristic for Curry to miss from the charity stripe, as he’s a 90% career free throw shooter. He averaged 92.3% in the regular season.

Curry has come off the bench only 12 times (regular season and postseason combined) in his entire career. Sunday night was the sixth instance of him playing as a reserve in his playoff career. He may return to the starting lineup for Game 5. Coach Steve Kerr wouldn’t say if Curry would start but that he would have no minutes restriction.

Andrew Wiggins finished Game 4 with 20 points and six rebounds. Shooting better than 54% from the field, he’s averaging 14.5 points and 7.3 rebounds in the series. The all-around play has supplemented the scoring efforts of teammates Curry, Jordan Poole, and Klay Thompson.

Draymond Green played 34 minutes in Sunday’s and had 13 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. He picked up his sixth foul with 2:05 remaining, with the Warriors trailing by one (117-116) at the time. Denver would outscore Golden State by a 9-5 margin from that point onward, with both zone and box-and-1 looks not being enough to neutralize Nikola Jokic.

The Warriors didn’t have a ton of turnovers, but taking care of the ball was something Kerr thought they could have done a better job at doing, specifically in the first half. They finished the night with 15 turnovers, and 11 of them came in the first two quarters. The Warriors went into a huge hole, nearly dug themselves out of it, but then fell just short at the end. The Nuggets outshot the Warriors (.562 to .500 FG%) and turned 17 Warriors turnovers into 30 points,

“Too much dribbling,” Kerr said. “Way too much dribbling and not just moving the ball on to the next guy and letting him make the play.”

The Warriors are shooting .531 from the field and have made at least 50 percent of their field goal attempts in every game.

In Game 5s, the Warriors have a 25-22 record, including 11-3 since the 2015 NBA Playoffs. The Warriors have a 42-24 all-time record in playoff series-clinching games, including 18-8 since 2015. The Nuggets have a 27-27 all-time record in playoff elimination games, including 8-3 since 2016.

Game Trends

Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.