ALCS Game 1 Betting Preview, Houston's Analysis

Something about baseball in October is special. The weather suddenly changes and you can feel it in the air, but for two AL teams, Mother Nature is not being too kind. The Houston Astros are patiently awaiting who they will battle in game one of the ALCS on Wednesday.

It is the young vs the old as the Cleveland Guardians are squaring off against the New York Yankees in a do-or-die game five of the ALDS. The Astros swept the Seattle Mariners but the other ALDS matchup requires all of the games to determine a winner. This is what baseball is all about, so sit back and enjoy it while it is here. It’s time to look at our ALCS preview for game 1 so you can start planning your bets against the MLB Odds.

MLB 2022 Postseason Betting Analysis for Game One of the AL Championship Series

Rested and Fresh

So far, throughout the 2022 MLB playoffs, we have seen the team that did not have to play in the Wild Card series come out cold. They were rested, but perhaps a little too rested. Three out of the four division series winners may be the lower seed, but the Astros went out and got it done in three games. They are in perfect shape heading into the ALCS, and they will have home-field advantage in the best-of-seven.

Astros fans will be delighted to hear Justin Verlander will take the mound in the crucial game one matchup at Minute Maid Park. The frontrunner for the AL Cy Young award was 18-4 in the regular season with a 1.74 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts through 175.0 IP. The ageless-wonder was 10-1 at home but did allow six earned runs in the ALDS matchup against the Seattle Mariners.

Rest is much needed for Houston after their historic 18-inning 1-0 win to wrap up the ALDS. The Astros have the most wins out of the remaining playoff teams and look to keep rolling over their opponents with their dangerous offense and talented pitching staff.

Who Will it Be?

Would the Houston Astros rather play the young and confident Cleveland Guardians or the veteran-led New York Yankees with Aaron Judge, who is going to be the AL MVP? No matter the answer to the question, they will know their opponent on Tuesday, just one day before the ALCS begins. That leads to not having very much time to prepare for either side.

Age is just a number, as the Guardians are the youngest team in all of baseball. On top of that, they have one of the smallest payrolls. Nobody expected them to get this far, but this postseason has seen the underdogs take over. A Guardian team advancing to the ALCS will be scary for the Astros, as the underdogs have been feisty all month long.

At one point in the season, the Yankees were projected to clobber the all-time wins record set by the Seattle Mariners. That did not end up happening, as they went on one of their worst runs in franchise history, but they finished the season strong. Which version of the Yankees will show up if they make the ALCS? The Astros would much rather play an ALCS game at Progressive Field in Cleveland than the hostile Yankee Stadium.

Betting Tips for Game One

No matter who the Houston Astros play, they have the better pitching matchup. Both the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees have used their top arms and have little time to reset prior to the ALCS; The Astros have the best pitcher in MLB set to take the mound in the biggest game of the season. On top of that, their entire team will be on four-days rest.

Covering the spread is never easy when you are always favored, but the Astros were one of the top teams in the AL in that category. The funny thing is the Guardians have been better against the spread in 2022, but they were the underdog in a fair amount of those games. The Yankees were far below average against the spread in 2022.

It is October, and as you have seen, anything is possible. In every ALDS game, the combined winning margin has been just 12 runs. That is incredibly close throughout seven games, so the moneyline may be the answer in the ALCS rather than the risky spread.