ALCS Game 3 Odds: Guardians vs Yankees

The Yankees dominated the first two games of the ALCS at home against the Guardians to take a commanding 2-0 lead.

Will a shift to Cleveland on Thursday afternoon for Game 3 change things? New York is still a short favorite on the MLB odds.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Yankees -115, Guardians +105 (total 7.5)
Expert Prediction: Guardians 4, Yankees 3

New York Yankees -115

Two wins stand now between the Yankees and their first World Series appearance since 2009, a drought too long for an organization that has won 27 championships. After taking Game 1 by a score of 5-2, the Yankees took Game 2 on Tuesday, 6-3. Aaron Judge went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run and a sacrifice fly. Judge’s home run was his first in the playoffs this year and 14th of his postseason career. He blasted a two-run shot to center off Hunter Gaddis in the seventh inning.

Aaron Judge

The homer was Judge’s 14th of his postseason career, which ranks fifth in Yankees history, behind Bernie Williams (22), Derek Jeter (20), Mickey Mantle (18) and Babe Ruth (15. It was also his first postseason HR since Game 5 of the 2022 ALDS vs. Cleveland. Each of his last three postseason homers have come vs. Guardians.

The Captain brings Yankee Stadium to its feet 🫡 #ALCS pic.twitter.com/ctO2jydYDQ
— MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2024

“Guys are excited, but we still know there’s a lot of work to be done,” said Judge. “We’re playing against a good Cleveland team that has battled all year, had some tough games, went through a tough series with Detroit taking it to Game 5 and came out on the other side. So a lot of work to be done. So we’re excited. The guys in there are focused. They’re prepared. They know what needs to be done, and on our way to Cleveland.”

New York had won four of its first five playoff games with little production from their captain. While Judge did walk five times, he had managed only two hits in 15 at-bats this postseason before Tuesday. In one night, he tripled his previous RBI output.

Gleyber Torres

Torres went 3-for-5 with two runs scored and a double. Torres continues to stay hot in these playoffs. He’s hitting .292 with a .933 OPS and three RBI in six games in these playoffs. The Yankees jumped on Tanner Bibee early in Game 2 and Torres’ leadoff double was a big part of the first inning rally.

Clarke Schmidt

It’s righty on the mound for New York in Game 3. A right lat strain limited Schmidt to just 16 starts and 85.1 innings this season, but he was terrific when healthy, collecting a 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 93:30 K:BB. Schmidt got the call for Game 3 of the ALDS in Kansas City and yielded two runs in 4 2/3 innings and struck out four. The runs came in the fifth after Schmidt retired the first two batters of the inning. What followed was a soft infield single, a double the batter thought would go foul, and then a triple past a diving Juan Soto. Clay Holmes took over at that point and prevented the go-ahead run from scoring.

Schmidt’s first two playoff appearances came against Cleveland in the 2022 ALDS, when he pitched a scoreless inning in Game 2, but was charged with a blown save and a loss in Game 3. He picked up a win against Cleveland on April 13 of this season, allowing two runs (one earned) over five innings.

Teams to take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven postseason series have gone on to win the series 76 of 91 times (83.5%), including 32 of 37 times in the LCS (86.5%). Teams taking a 2-0 lead at home in any seven-game series have gone on to win 50 of 61 times (82%).

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ALCS Game 3 Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Cleveland Guardians -106

The Guardians had plenty of chances to win Game 2 as New York ace Gerrit Cole struggled with his control, allowing 10 baserunners over 4⅓ innings. He left with the bases loaded in the fifth inning, and reliever Clay Holmes allowed one run to score via a force out before striking out Austin Hedges to end the threat. Cleveland went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and left 11 runners on base.

Stephen Vogt

We had traffic all night tonight,“Manager said. “We do what we do. We get on base and make things happen. We just didn’t get a big hit with runners in scoring position. Furthermore, we’re one swing of the bat away from taking the lead in that game. We’re one swing of the bat from being right back in it. That is who we are. We don’t quit. We just need to keep being us.”

Jose Ramirez

All-Star Ramirez went 1-for-4 with a walk and a solo home run. Ramirez’ home run was his second of the playoffs. He hit a solo shot off Luke Weaver in the ninth inning but is batting just .167 in the postseason so far. As left fielder Steven Kwan put it, Cleveland needs to get back to playing the “Guard Ball” brand of baseball that has become the theme of its season.

José Ramírez blasts a solo shot in the 9th #ALCS pic.twitter.com/PHtk76QPUT
— MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2024

“Fundamental baseball,” said Kwan, who extended his franchise-record postseason hitting streak to 12 games with a single in the fifth inning of Game 2. “Make the plays that we’re supposed to. With runners in scoring position, get the guy over. Just fundamental stuff to be able to [win] the game.”

Steven Kwan

Kwan’s hitting streak is the longest in the playoffs for any AL player since a 16-game streak by Houston’s Michael Brantley in 2020-21. Across his seven games this postseason, Kwan is batting .448 (13/29) and his 13 hits lead all American League players in the 2024 postseason and are second-most in the majors. Shortstop Bryan Rocchio singled in the 3rd inning and has now hit safely in all seven of the Guardians 2024 postseason games. That’s the longest playoff streak in Guardians history for a player to begin his career.

Scoring first is vital. The Guardians were 59-16 in the regular season and 2-0 in the postseason when scoring the first run of the game as opposed to 33-53 and 1-4 in the postseason when conceding the first run, which was still good for the fourth-best winning percentage (38.4%) during the regular season in such scenarios. In each of the first two games of the ALCS, the Guardians have faced deficits of at least three runs. They were 9-50 when trailing by three or more runs in a game during the regular season, and are now 0-4 in the postseason when down at least three.

Matthew Boyd

It’s lefty on the hill for Game 3. He was 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA in very limited action this season off Tommy John surgery. In the winner-take-all Game 5 start against the Tigers in the ALDS, Boyd allowed just one hit in two frames. Prior to that, he had given up just four hits in 4 2/3 scoreless frames in Game 2. He has made six career starts against the Yankees, owning a 5.17 ERA with seven homers, 16 walks and 29 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings.

How to Watch Yankees at Guardians

When: Thursday, 5:08 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field
Pitchers (away/home): Clarke Schmidt/Matthew Boyd
TV: TBS, truTV
Stream/game day audio: Max