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The Houston Astros nearly found themselves down 3-1 in the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox at one point, but now the Astros bring a 3-2 series lead back to Houston on Friday night for Game 6 with a chance to book a trip to the World Series. Houston is favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Boston at Houston MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 8:08 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Nathan Eovaldi/Luis Garcia
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream/gameday audio: Fox Sports Go
Opening MLB Lines: Astros -135, Red Sox +115 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox were up 2-1 in the eighth inning of Game 4 vs. Houston but blew that lead and game and have largely imploded since. The Sox were routed 9-1 in Game 5 in what was likely their final home game of the season. The lone bright spot was Rafael Devers going 2-for-3 with a homer. It was the third homer of the series for the 24-year-old and he’s slashed .350/.435/.800.

Devers is on a nine-game hitting streak dating back to Game 1 of the ALDS. During that span, he has collected eight runs, 13 hits, five home runs and 12 RBI. He is the fourth player in Boston’s postseason history to record at least 13 hits, five home runs and 12 RBI across any nine-game span, joining Manny Ramirez (2007), David Ortiz (2004) and Nomar Garciaparra (1998).

Devers has joined Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle, Albert Pujols and Carlos Correa as the only players in MLB playoff history to club eight playoff home runs prior to turning 25-years-old. He also has matched Boston’s single postseason record with eight home runs, previously accomplished by Todd Walker (2003), Ortiz (2004, 2013) and Kiké Hernández (2021).

The Sox have 22 homers across their first 10 games of these playoffs. That’s the second-most across a team’s first 10 games of a postseason in MLB history, trailing only the 2004 Astros (23).

Boston is making a roster move ahead of Game 6 as the team has activated reliever Phillips Valdez from the COVID-19 injured list. Valdez had been out since September 12 following a positive test for the virus. The 29-year-old posted a 5.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 35/19 K/BB ratio across 40 regular-season innings. To clear a roster spot, the team designated outfielder Franchy Cordero for assignment. Cordero, 27, was one of several players acquired in the three-team swap this offseason that sent outfielder Andrew Benintendi from Boston to Kansas City.

It’s ace Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 in regular season) on the mound. Eovaldi was charged with four runs in two-thirds of an inning of relief Tuesday against the Astros in Game 4. He surrendered a go-ahead, two-out RBI single to Jason Castro on a 2-2 pitch after he didn’t get a borderline pitch on 1-2. Eovaldi then walked the next batter and was pulled. He wound up throwing 24 pitches.

The Red Sox are 5-0 in Eovaldi’s postseason starts career (2-0 in 2018, 3-0 in 2021). It’s is the first time the Sox have ever won each of a pitcher’s first 5 postseason starts for the club. In 4 appearances this postseason (3 starts), he is 2-1 with a 5.51 ERA (16.1 IP, 14 H, 10 ER, 4 BB, 21 SO).

Why Bet on Houston?

Following a 2-2 series split in the ALCS (six times since 1985), all teams that won Game 5 went on to advance to the World Series with the exception of the 2017 Astros, who lost Game 5 but rallied to defeat the Yankees over seven games.

In the 9-1 victory in Game 5, Yordan Alvarez homered, drove in three runs and went 3-for-5. Alvarez gave the Astros a 1-0 lead with a homer off Chris Sale in the second inning. He then doubled home two more in the sixth. He’s driven in five runs in these first five games. It was the second three-hit game of his postseason career, previously doing so in Game 5 of the 2019 World Series. He has now scored a run and notched a hit in each of his last four games dating. That’s tied for the fourth-longest such streak in Astros postseason history.

Yuli Gurriel went 3-for-5 with three RBI. He doubled in a run in the sixth to extend the Houston lead to 4-0, and his two-run single in the ninth cemented the blowout by making it 9-1. Gurriel is slashing .474/.524/.684 in these first five contests of the ALCS.

Jose Altuve scored a pair of runs in the win and his 64 career postseason runs are fourth-most in MLB playoff history, trailing Hall of Famer Derek Jeter (111), Bernie Williams (83), Manny Ramirez (67) and Kenny Lofton (65). The Astros have scored two-out runs in the 2021 postseason, tied for sixth-most in playoff history.

It’s rookie Luis Garcia on the mound despite leaving Game 2 with left knee discomfort. Garcia lasted only into the second inning, leaving after walking the leadoff hitter on four pitches. He gave up a grand slam to J.D. Martinez in the first inning and never looked comfortable on the mound. When he departed, Garcia had just walked Kevin Plawecki on four pitches, all fastballs clocked at 90-92 mph, well below the 95.7 mph he maxed out at in the first inning and the 93.3 mph he averaged during the regular season.

The 24-year-old Garcia entered the playoffs on the heels of a quality rookie season. The right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA/3.91 SIERA and above-average strikeout (26.4%) and walk (7.9%) rates over 155 1/3 innings.

Game Trends

Red Sox are 11-3 in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog.
Red Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 Friday games.
Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 42-19 in their last 61 games as a home favorite.
Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.