In baseball, as in every professional sport with a playoff system, there are a limited number of postseason spots available each year. When we look at the teams prior to the start of the season, most of us have a pretty decent idea of which teams are the most likely to be moving on once the regular season draws to a close. That said, there are usually some surprises along the way, with a couple of the teams that we expected to be in the playoffs missing out. There is very often a high level of unpredictability in sports, so perhaps we should stop being surprised when a good team fails to play as well as expected.

One team that certainly fits that bill is the Boston Red Sox, as it now looks as though the defending World Series champions will not get a shot at defending their crown. Wednesday will see them go against another team that has been disappointing this year, with the Philadelphia Phillies coming to town. The Red Sox are favored by 1 ½, with the run total set at 12.

Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Odds, Game Info & Prediction

• When: Wednesday August 21 at 7:10 PM EST
• Where: Fenway Park, Boston
• Starting Pitchers: Smyly vs. Porcello
• TV: MLB Extra Innings
• Radio: RSN
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Odds: Boston Red Sox -175 (Total 12)

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Weather Forecast

• Cloudy: 27°C/81°F
• Humidity: 71%
• Precipitation: 24%
• Cloud Cover: 82%
• Wind: 11 mph SSW
• Stadium Type: Open

Why bet on the Philadelphia Phillies?

The expectation for this season was that the Phillies would take a big step forward after acquiring the services of Bryce Harper on a very lucrative long-term deal. The reality, though, is that the Phillies may in fact have lost some of the momentum that they built up last season, which means that there is much more work to be done before this team can be considered a contender.

As it stands now, the Phillies are 65-60, which puts them in 3rd in the East, 9 games off the pace being set by the Braves. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but that is not nearly good enough for a team with an eye on the postseason. The good news for the Phillies is that they are just 2 games out of the Wild Card. Philly is 27-32 SU on the road, but they are a healthy 9-5 in interleague play. They will have Drew Smyly (2-6, 7.09 ERA) on the mound.

Team Stats

• Runs: 4.77
• Hits: 8.41
• Walks: 3.56
• Strike Outs: 8.80

• Runs: 4.92
• Hits: 9.04
• Walks: 3.36
• Strike Outs: 8.47

Why bet on the Boston Red Sox?

The Boston Red Sox are among the biggest surprises, or should we say disappointments, of the season. It is never easy to go out and defend your title, as there is very often a little bit of a World Series hangover that comes into play, but the reality is that Boston has never really looked like a serious challenger this season.

They are almost certainly going to land in the 3rd spot in the AL East this season, well out of the race for a division title, or even a Wild Card spot for that matter. Their play at home, where they are 33-33 has been particularly surprising, and they are a very poor 23-34 ATS as a home favorite. The Red Sox will send Rick Porcello (11-9, 5.49 ERA) to the mound for this one.

Team Stats

• Runs: 5.80
• Hits: 9.88
• Walks: 3.68
• Strike Outs: 8.40

• Runs: 5.15
• Hits: 8.75
• Walks: 3.51
• Strike Outs: 9.93

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Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Betting Trends

• Phillies are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
• Red Sox are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the National League
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games
• Phillies are 53-91 against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons
• Red Sox are 39-15 against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons
• Smyly is 2-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.000
• Porcello is 2-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.200

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Phillies vs Red Sox

While the Phillies do still have a shot at getting into the postseason, they are going to have a tough time getting any joy at Fenway, regardless of how Boston has played there this season. I am on the Red Sox to win, with the run total falling just UNDER.

Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3 – Boston Red Sox 7