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The Miami Heat can finish off the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 of their first-round Eastern Conference playoff series Tuesday, and NBA oddsmakers expect the Heat to do just that.

How to Bet Hawks at Heat NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7 PM ET
Where: FTX Arena
TV: NBA TV
Stream: NBA.com, NBA TV app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Heat -7 (total 217.5)

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Hawks got center Clint Capela back from injury in Game 4 but Capela was held to just two points on 1-of-4 shooting Sunday, to go with seven rebounds and nothing else across 21 minutes in the blowout 110-86 loss. He had some minutes restrictions, as he was limited to 6-8 minute bursts. Capela replaced Danilo Gallinari in the first unit.

All-Star Trae Young was terrible Sunday with just nine points and five assists in 36 minutes. The Hawks were able to pull the upset in Game 3 behind 24 points and eight assists from Young, but he struggled to get anything going Sunday. For the second time in four games, he failed to reach double figures in scoring. Young finished as a minus-27 and was responsible for five of the Hawks’ 15 turnovers.

Young is being forced to settle for contested 3s and can’t get into the paint. Young is not used to not being able to get downhill with angle advantages, which he effortlessly turns into his own finishes or lob/kick-out assists when he’s not drawing fouls at the mercy of leveraged defenders. For his part, Young was quick to compliment Miami’s defenders.

“I haven’t been guarded like this … since like high school,” he said. “Obviously, it’s way better competition, so it’s hard for me to score a lot more through the double-teams and face guards. They’re doing a great job of showing help and not letting me get into the paint. When I’m driving, if I try to drive by somebody, they’re sending a double and forcing me to kick it to my teammates. I took 11 shots and probably took a couple of forced ones at the end.”

De’Andre Hunter scored 24 on 9-of-13 shooting to go with three rebounds. Hunter was great in the first and fourth quarters but he didn’t do much in between. He finished as Atlanta’s leading scorer but also with a team-worst, plus/minus rating of minus-29.

John Collins was unimpressive in Sunday’s Game 4 loss as he ended just 11 points and two rebounds across 22 foul-plagued minutes. Collins had four fouls in his first 13 minutes of action. Bogdan Bogdanovic had a solid outing in their Game 3 win by being the second-leading scorer for the Hawks with 18 points. He also produced eight rebounds and six assists in 32 minutes off the bench. However, the Serbian didn’t sustain his performance in Game 4, where he only notched four points, four rebounds, and an assist.

Why Bet on Miami?

The Heat played without former All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry in Game 4 with a hamstring strain and he’s questionable for Tuesday. Lowry injured his left hamstring in Game 3 on Friday, a loss for the Heat, and sat out the entire fourth quarter.

“You have to be smart about it,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of Lowry’s injury. “The training staff determined that he wasn’t going to play tonight and we have everybody else available and that’s what we’re focused on right now.”

Gabe Vincent got the start in Lowry’s place and played 27 minutes in the win, finishing with 11 points, three rebounds and four assists. Vincent has shot a perfect 19-of-19 from the free throw line in the fourth quarter this season (including both regular and postseason).

Victor Oladipo saw 23 minutes off the bench with no Lowry and had six points, eight rebounds, four assists and one turnover. He was a DNP-CD through the first three games of this series, but it looks like he’ll have a marginal role in the rotation if Lowry remains out.

Jimmy Butler was the star of Game 4 with 36 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and four steals. Through four games, Butler has scored 21, 45, 20 and now 36 points as the Heat continue to find ways to shred the Atlanta defense and neutralize Trae Young. Butler has been the best player in this series by a good margin, but so far the series has been decided by how Miami – hunting him on the other end of the floor – has handled one of the highest usage players in the league in Young.

The Heat finished Game 4 with an Offensive Rating of 126.4 (13-of-42 from three a major factor) but just 90.8 points-per-play in the halfcourt. That’s a huge split, but the latter number doesn’t include offensive rebounds and second chances, of which the Heat had 15.

If there’s one negative so far, NBA Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro is averaging just 12 points, three assists, and 4.5 rebounds in the series. Herro had a field goal percentage of 44.7% during the regular season and shot 39.9 from the three-point line. In the postseason, he has a field goal percentage of 36.5percent and is shooting 20.8 percent from the arc. Herro went 1 of 8 from the field goal range and missed all five of his three-pointers in the Game 4 win.

Game Trends

Hawks are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.