NBA Finals Odds: Heat vs Nuggets in Game 4 Analysis, Trends and Prediction

The Miami Heat trail the 2023 NBA Finals 2-1 to the Denver Nuggets, and the Heat will again be without Tyler Herro for Game 4 on Friday. The Nuggets are thus favored on the NBA odds again for a 3-1 lead and if they win Friday, this series almost surely ends on Monday back in the Mile High City.

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 | 2023 NBA Expert Analysis

How to Bet Denver at Miami NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Kaseya Center
TV: ABC
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: ESPN Radio
NBA Odds: Nuggets -3.5 (total 211)

Why Bet on Denver?

Game 3 in Miami was never much in doubt as the Nuggets dominated the middle two quarters in a 109-94 victory for a 2-1 series lead. Denver stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray made history as both had 30-point triple-doubles. That had never happened before in the regular season or playoffs.

Dominating every aspect of the game, Jokic finished with 32 points, a playoff season-high-tying 21 rebounds, 10 assists and a series-high two blocks in a series-high 44 minutes for his 16th career playoff triple-double and 10th of this postseason. Jokic became the first player ever with 32+ points, 21+ rebounds and 10+ points in the NBA Finals.

Jokic is now the seventh player to have two triple-doubles in the same Finals. Magic Johnson and LeBron James each did it in three different Finals. Draymond Green, Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird and Jimmy Butler all had one title series with two triple-doubles. Jokic is also responsible for three of the five 30-20-10 playoff games ever, with two of those coming this postseason. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1970) and Chamberlain (1967) each have one.

Murray had a series-high 34 points, a playoff season-high tying 10 rebounds and a playoff season-high tying 10 assists in a playoff season-high 45 minutes for his first career playoff triple-double. Murray nearly missed out on the feat, but got the rebound he needed with 9 seconds remaining. Murray has had 10 assists in each of the three games in this series. He is the first player to record at least 10 assists in each of his first three career NBA Finals games. Murray suffered a floor burn on his left (non-shooting) hand during the game but that won’t keep him out Friday.

Aaron Gordon had 11 points and 10 rebounds for his fifth career playoff double-double and second of this postseason. The Nuggets are 4-0 in these playoffs when Gordon has 4+ assists. Fellow starters Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope both really struggled with eight combined points.

Rookie reserve Christian Braun stepped up big in his 19 minutes, shooting 7-of-8 from the field and finishing with 15 points, four rebounds, one assist and one steal. He played a total of 23 minutes in the first two games and totaled six points.

Bet Nuggets to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Why Bet on Miami?

What went wrong for the Heat in Game 3? Star Jimmy Butler has the answer, saying his team didn’t have enough energy overall – Miami was outrebounded 58-33 in its first true home Finals game in nine years (when Heat reached the 2020 Finals, it was the Orlando bubble).

“It just can’t happen. It won’t happen again. It starts with myself. I have to lock in on the defensive end. I have to go up and get loose balls. I think if I start playing and doing that, then everybody else has to follow suit,” Butler said of Game 4.

Coach Erik Spoelstra agreed that his team didn’t play with the same kind of edge that has defined its unlikely run as a No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs: “I just think sometimes, for us, when we lose a lot of those physical battles, the effort plays, the loose balls, the rebounding battles, that’s our identity. And sometimes, that can affect the flow of the rest of your game.”

Butler logged 40 minutes in Wednesday’s loss and had 28 points but just four assists and two rebounds. Butler’s point total has increased in each of the series’ first three games, so he could be in for a big Game 4 on Friday. Bam Adebayo shot only 7-of-21 from the field to finish with 22 points and 17 rebounds. The problem is the other Heat players combined for 16 boards. Adebayo has now scored 21 points or more in each of the series’ first three games.

Miami had a brutal night on the offensive end of the floor, making just 37.0% of its attempts from the field while also going 11-of-35 from three. The Heat’s 17-for-46 (37.0%) shooting in the paint was tied for the seventh worst shooting performance in the paint for any team in any game this season. It was the second worst for any team in the playoffs, with the only worse performance being the Heat’s own 16-for-52 (30.8%) in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, also a loss.

On the bright side, for the third time in this series, the Heat outscored the Nuggets by at least 15 points from 3-point range, with Denver’s five 3s (on 18 attempts) being tied for their third fewest of the season. The Nuggets were one of just three teams with multiple wins (they were 2-3) in the regular season when they made five or fewer 3-pointers. Now they have a Finals win.

Starting Heat guard Tyler Herro hasn’t played since Game 1 of Round 1 due to a broken hand. He’s getting closer but it won’t be Friday for a return.

Bet Heat to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Game Trends

Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.
Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Heat are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Friday games.
Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.