AFC Championship Odds: Chiefs vs Bills Prediction & Preview

Given the popularity of the NFL in North America, you might not think that we need to give any type of explanation about how the playoffs work, considering the AFC Championship Odds.

It is worth remembering, though, the league is trying to spread the game so that it appeals to a wider global audience.

AFC Championship Odds Analysis: Background, Preview, and Prediction

The games played in London, England have helped with that, but there are still large pockets of people across the world who are still learning about the game and potentially how to wager on football.

With that in mind, we are going to get into the history of the AFC Championship, as well as some of the wagers available, before getting to know how the teams got there this year and how things might play out.

AFC Championship Odds: A Brief History of the Game

In the modern game, the NFL is split into two different conferences: the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC).

The teams that win their respective conferences go on to compete for the Lombardi Trophy in the Super Bowl. This format began back in 1970, which was when the NFL and AFL merged to become one major league.

Who will be added to the list of AFC Champions on Sunday? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/i7Nu8oU4Dy
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 22, 2025

Over the years, the NFL has made several changes to the number of games played in the regular season, as well as in the number of teams that make it into the playoffs. As it stands now, each conference sends 7 teams to the postseason.

The team with the best record in each conference is granted the #1 seed and given a bye in the first round, which is known as Wild Card Weekend.

Top seeds advance to the playoffs for the Divisional Round, followed by Conference Championships and the Super Bowl, while lower seeds must win 4 consecutive games.

Assuming of course that the location of the game is not the home of one of the contestants in the Championship Game.

In recent years, this game has been dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs, who are in it again this weekend, so now that we are all caught up, let’s get to some of the wagers you can make in the AFC Championship Game.

AFC Championship Odds: An Overview of Wagers for the Game

There are a ton of wagers available for this game, but I think it’s probably best that we start with the basics before diving into the prop bets.

The three basic wagers are the straight-up winner, the spread and the point total. At the time of writing, here are the current odds for each of those wagers:

Straight Up: Kansas City Chiefs (-125), Buffalo Bills (+102)
Spread: Chiefs favored by 1 ½
Point Total: 47 ½ points

The matchup is nearly a coin flip for moneyline and spread bets. A narrow victory is possible, but a larger margin is more likely, suggesting that correctly picking the game winner will also align with the spread.

Point Total

It’s simply a matter of deciding if the total points scored by both teams will fall over or under the 47 ½ points on the bookies board.

You can also play the same game parlays, where you combine several picks on a single ticket, but keep in mind that all the picks need to be correct in order to cash out.

If you want more action other than just the outcome of the game, you can dig a little deeper and play several different wagers. Bets are available for scoring in a quarter, first half total, and more.

Given that the NFC Championship Game is also going on the same day, you can also wager on which of the two games will be the highest or lowest scoring of the pair.

There are also a ton of individual player props that are available to wager on, such as the total passing yards for the QBs, receiving yards, and rushing yards. These generally work on an over/under basis, where you try to determine whether a player will go over or under the total posted on the board.

For those wagers, it might not be a bad idea to wait until closer to game time, as things like injuries and weather conditions can have an impact on how things might play out.

It’s also worth noting that there will be live betting options available that allow you to wager based on how the game is going.

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Current NFL Props provided by MyBookie

AFC Championship Odds: Road to the Championship Game and Betting Trends

As we mentioned at the top of this piece, each of the two teams taking part in the AFC Championship game tend to have very different paths to the big game.

We are going to take a look at how the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills got to this point, as well as looking at some trends that might have an impact on how you wager on this game.

Kansas City Chiefs

If you are looking for a team that is playoff proven, you have to take a look at the Kansas City Chiefs. They are looking to win their 3rd straight Super Bowl, plus they have made it to this stage of the proceedings in each of the last 6 years.

What’s worth noting here is that they have met the Buffalo Bills 3 times in the AFC Championship Game 3 times during that stretch, winning all 3 meetings.

The Chiefs finished the season with a 15-2 record, nabbing the #1 seed in the process. That gave them the opening round bye. They entered the postseason in the Divisional Round, hosting the Houston Texans in a game that was perhaps a little closer than some people expected.

Kansas never really looked in any real trouble, though, coming away with a 23-14 win.

The Chiefs are now 18-2 SU in their last 20 games, as well as winning each of their last 12 games in their own building. They have also won 16 of their last 18 games against conference foes.

Although the Chiefs have achieved wins, they’ve struggled against the spread, with a 3-9 ATS record in their last 12 games. The total has gone OVER in 5 of 7 Chiefs-Bills matchups but UNDER in 8 of 9 January games.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been knocking on the championship door for a few years now, but they have always come up short, and almost always at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs.

There was a belief that they might take a backward step this season, but they won the AFC East in a canter with a 13-4 record, which was enough to get them the #2 seed, although that meant a trip to the Wild Card Round.

Despite having to take the long road to the AFC Championship Game, the #2 seed meant that the Bills had a couple of playoff games at home. They looked very comfortable in the Wild Card Round, beating the Denver Broncos 31-7 in a game that they took control of right form the off.

It was a much different story in the Divisional Round, with the Bills hanging in at the end to get away with a 27-25 win.

The Bills have been a fantastic bet in terms of straight-up wagers, going 12-2 in their last 14 games. They have also been fantastic in games against conference foes, going 9-1 SU in those outings, which included a win over the Chiefs earlier this season.

Buffalo excel against the spread, boasting a 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games and 4-2 ATS against the Chiefs. Moreover, 8 of their last 11 games hit the OVER, with a 4-1 O/U record in January games.

AFC Championship Game Prediction

The Bills have had the better of the Chiefs in the regular season, but as mentioned earlier, they have lost 3 straight games to KC in the playoffs.

I have a feeling that they might find a way to get the job done this weekend, plus I also like the point total to go OVER the 47 ½ points.

Kansas City Chiefs 24, Buffalo Bills 27

Four teams remain 👀 #NFLPowerRankings heading into Championship Sunday: https://t.co/3gM6dEaFQj (via @Eric_Edholm) pic.twitter.com/tOOk8u2mZ8
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) January 21, 2025