NFL Week 9 Divisional Matchup in the AFC East: Dolphins at Bills Odds and Betting Prediction

The marquee matchup in Week 4 around the NFL is clearly from the AFC East as unbeaten Miami, off a historic 70-point game against Denver, visits 2-1 Buffalo on Sunday with the Bills as short favorites on the NFL odds | 2023 NFL Expert Analysis Miami vs. Buffalo | MyBookie Sportsbook | NFL Regular Season: September 7, 2023 – January 7, 2024 | Week 4 NFL: Thursday, September 28 to Monday, October 2, 2023

How to Bet Dolphins at Bills NFL Odds & TV Info

When: Sunday, 1 PM ET
Where: Highmark Stadium
TV: CBS
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: https://tv.youtube.com/learn/nflsundayticket/
Opening NFL Lines: Bills -2.5 (total 53.5)

Last Season

The home team won all three matchups in the 2022 season. The first meeting was Week 3 in Miami and the Fins prevailed 21-19. In Week 15 in the snow in Buffalo, the Bills won 32-29. They overcame an eight-point deficit with Josh Allen overseeing scoring drives on the final two possessions, capped by Tyler Bass hitting a 25-yard field goal as time expired. In a wild card game in Buffalo, the Bills escaped 34-31 even though the Dolphins were without QB Tua Tagovailoa. The game wasn’t decided until Buffalo’s defense, which forced six punts and two turnovers, stopped Miami as it turned the ball over on downs on its final possession.

Bet on Miami Dolphins?

The Dolphins set all sorts of records in last week’s 70-20 win over Denver and were playing without stellar No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle. The Fins became the fourth team in NFL history, including the postseason, to score at least 70 points in a game and the first in 57 years. Miami could have kicked a field goal at the end for 73 points but opted to take a knee.

Miami also had 726 yards in becoming only the second team in NFL history, including the postseason, to record at least 700 yards of total offense in a single game, joining the Los Angeles Rams on September 28, 1951 (735 yards of offense). For perspective, there are two teams — the New York Jets (675) and the Tennessee Titans (720) — who have fewer yards of offense in three games combined than the Dolphins had in Week 3 (726).

Miami has recorded 1,651 total yards of offense this season and surpassed the 2011 Patriots (1,621 yards of offense) for the most-ever by a team through its first three games of a season. The Dolphins have scored 130 points so far this season, the second-most ever by a team through its first three games of a season. Only the 1968 Dallas Cowboys (132 points) had more.

Tua Tagovailoa completed his first 17 passes of the game against Denver finishing 23-of-26 for 309 yards and four touchdowns. He ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (1,024), passing touchdowns (8) and QBR (77.7) and averages the fourth-most air yards per pass attempt (7.6).

Rookie running back De’Von Achane totaled 233 scrimmage yards (203 rushing, 30 receiving) and four touchdowns (two rushing, two receiving) while fellow running back Raheem Mostert 142 scrimmage yards (82 rushing, 60 receiving) and four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving). Achane and Mostert are the second pair of teammates in NFL history to each score four touchdowns in the same game, joining Kansas City’s Derrick Blaylock and Priest Holmes (four touchdowns each) on October 24, 2004. Achane became the second player in NFL history with at least 200 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns and two touchdown receptions in a single game.

That offense will only get better Sunday with Waddle expected back from his concussion. However, fellow WR River Cracraft (shoulder) likely will not play Sunday. As for the other Dolphins players hurt vs. Denver— pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips (oblique) and center Connor Williams (groin) — they are “day to day.”

Dolphins Injuries List

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Erik Ezukanma (WR) Questionable | Durham Smythe (TE) Questionable | Salvon Ahmed (RB) Questionable | DeShon Elliot (S) Questionable | Terron Armstead (OT) Questionable | River Cracraft (WR) Doubtful | Jaelan Phillips (LB) Questionable | Jaylen Widdle (WR) Questionable | Tyler Kroft (TE) Questionable | Connor Williams (G) Questionable | Robert Jones (G) Injured Reserve | Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB) Injured Reserve | Jalen Ramsey (CB) Injured Reserve | Nik Needham (CB) Out | Keion Crossen (CB) Injured Reserve

Bet Dolphins to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Why Bet on Buffalo Bills?

Buffalo (2-1) lost its season opener at the Jets but has back-to-back blowout wins since. The Bills won 37-3 in Washington on Sunday. Buffalo had seven sacks, four interceptions, a fumble recovery and a defensive touchdown.

Linebacker Terrel Bernard was all over the field Sunday, snagging the first interception of the day and tallying two sacks, seven total tackles, one pass defensed and a fumble recovery. He became the first NFL player with two sacks, one INT, and one fumble recovery in the same game since Bears Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher. He’s the first player in Bills history to record such a stat line and was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week.

Josh Allen completed 20 of 32 passes for 218 yards, one touchdown and one interception He added three rushing attempts for 46 yards and one rushing touchdown. He threw his fourth interception of the season on a deep ball in the third quarter, and Allen now has 33 interceptions in 36 games since the start of the 2021 campaign. The Bills offense converted nine of their 15 third downs. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs finished the game with eight receptions for 111 yards, becoming just the sixth active player with over 9,000 receiving yards.

Safeties Micah Hyde (hamstring), Jordan Poyer (knee soreness) and Siran Neal (ankle), pass-rusher Leonard Floyd (ankle), and OL Ryan Bates (ankle) did not Bills head coach Sean McDermott didn’t seem concerned about the availability of any of the players ahead of Sunday’s contest. As veterans, all of them should be able to play on Sunday if they can get one limited practice in this week. Hyde missed all three games against the Dolphins last year with his neck injury.

Floyd has 3.5 sacks on the season. The Bills’ 9 sacks Sunday vs. Washington were tied for the teams’ second-highest in the Super Bowl era, behind a 10-sack performance also against Washington in 2011. The Bills defensive line is coming off a huge performance against the Commanders where they registered 15 quarterback hits and had seven different defenders generate at least four pressures according to Next Gen Stats. Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out faster than any other in the NFL with a 2.36 average time to throw. When Tagovailoa does feel the pressure his passer rating drops to 57.7 compared to a clean pocket when it’s 137.7. Through three games, the Bills have the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 13.3%.

Bills Injuries List

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Siran Neal (CB) Questionable | Taron Johnson (CB) Questionable | Leonard Floyd (DE) Questionable | Jordan Poyer (S) Questionable | Micah Hyde (S) Questionable | Ryan Bates (G) Questionable | Von Miller (LB) Out | Baylor Spector (LB) Injured Reserve | Justin Shorter (WR) Injured Reserve | Tommy Doyle (OT) Injured Reserve | AJ Epenesa (DE) Out

Bet Bills to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Bills vs Dolphins Expert Prediction

Bills 33, Dolphins 30

AFC EAST Standings

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Bet on NFL: W: Wins | L: Losses | T: Ties | PCT: Winning Percentage | PA: Total Points Against | PF: Total Points For | HOME: Home Record | ROAD: Road Record | STRK: Streak

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NFL Week 15 Betting Preview and Prediction for Miami Dolphins at Buffalo

Miami takes on the rival Buffalo Bills with their playoff dreams at stake. After running off five straight wins, the Dolphins have since lost two straight. What’s really worrisome if you’re a Fins fan is that Miami hasn’t scored more than 17 in each of their last two contests. Buffalo is back on a winning streak. On Saturday, the Bills look for their fifth straight. Will Buffalo win by enough to get an SU and ATS victory? Or will the Dolphins keep the margin closer than the spread? Keep reading for NFL Lines, analysis, and a free pick for Miami at Buffalo. 

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds and Match Info

• When: Saturday, Dec. 17 at 8:15 pm ET 
• Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY 
• TV / Streaming: NFL Net
• ATS Odds: Buffalo -7.5
• Money line Odds: Miami +285 / Buffalo -380   
• Over/Under Odds: 42

Why bet on Miami versus Buffalo?

The Dolphins have not played well in their last two games, but there’s a reason. Miami faced San Francisco’s fantastic defense two contests go. 

No team is having success versus the 49ers right now. San Francisco has turned into a legit Super Bowl contender even though rookie Brock Purdy is their starting quarterback.

The other team Miami lost to was the Los Angeles Chargers. The Dolphins faced quarterback Justin Herbert and both of Herbert’s star receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, were healthy. Not only that, but the Dolphins beat the Bills earlier in the season. So this is a good bounce back spot. 

Why bet on Buffalo versus Miami?

Buffalo isn’t covering spreads but the reason is because the spreads have been too high. It’s tough to cover a 10-point spread against a rival like the New York Jets, with a fantastic defense, who Buffalo beat by 8 points in NFL Week 14.

The Bills couldn’t cover against the Detroit Lions. But just beating Detroit on Thanksgiving, which is what Buffalo did, is an accomplishment. 

The spread in this contest is 7.5 and should fall to 7 or even below 7 by kickoff. The game happens at Buffalo and the Dolphins are a bad road covering team. So the Bills are a decent play to get it done. 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Final Betting Prediction

For the first time in a while, the Bills offer a fair spread line. At -10, it’s tough to back any NFL team. But the better team in a matchup at home at -7 or even up to -8 is worth a look.

In this case, although the money is going to the Dolphins, Buffalo is the pick. This happens at Highmark Stadium. Miami is 2-5 ATS in road games this season.

Not only that, but Tyreek Hill is banged up. Even if Hill plays, he won’t be one-hundred percent. In addition, it’s going to be 31 degrees and the weather folks call for a 71% chance of snow. That’s not good when you average less than 90 yards rushing per game. Buffalo scores the win and cover. 

NFL Week 15 Pick: Buffalo Bills -7.5