Patriots vs 49ers: NFL Week 4 Prediction

Two of the most successful franchises in Super Bowl history meet on Sunday but both with 1–2 records as the New England Patriots visit the injury-ravaged San Francisco 49ers, who are solid favorites on the NFL odds.

New England vs San Francisco: 2024 NFL Expert Analysis

Opening NFL Lines Subject to Change: 49ers -10.5 (total 40.5)
Expert Prediction: 49ers 24, Patriots 16

New England Patriots +480

The Patriots are a bad offensive team, as shown in Week 3, a 24-3 loss at the Jets. After going 12-for-18 passing for 98 scoreless yards and failing to lead a touchdown drive, starting QB Jacoby Brissett was pulled from late in the fourth quarter with the team down 24-3. First-round rookie Drake Maye played the final 4:24 of the game and went 4-for-8 for 22 yards. After Brissett absorbed five sacks, Maye took another two.

At some point this year, Maye is taking over, but first-year coach Jerod Mayo is sticking with Brissett for now. He’s completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 368 yards and a touchdown. Jacoby has been the ultimate professional throughout this process. He knows he’s New England’s placeholder quarterback.

Jacoby Brissett

Through three weeks, Jacoby has been sacked nine times. Only eight quarterbacks have been sacked more. His sack percentage (times sacked when a quarterback attempts a pass) is the third highest in the NFL at 11.54%. Last week, against the Jets, he was sacked 21.74% of the time when he dropped back to pass. The Patriots have allowed a worse sack percentage just once since 2000 – when Tom Brady was sacked 25% of the time in a 2001 win over Buffalo.

“Just keep battling,” Jacoby said. “It’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s coming. It’s about going out there — keep battling, keep putting your best foot forward and trusting the process. When it clicks, it clicks… It’s a week-to-week game, and if we put our best foot forward, we’ll be alright.”

Rhamondre Stevenson

Tailback Stevenson lost just one fumble all of 2023, which was a turnaround from the 2022 season when he lost four. But things have turned back in the wrong direction this season. He has fumbled in each of the first three games. Stevenson had eclipsed 20 carries in each of his first two contests, but had only six for 23 yards vs. New York.

Offense

The offensive line has been solid in the running game, but their struggles in pass-blocking continue. Third-round pick Caedan Wallace started at left tackle vs. the Jets, fourth-round pick Layden Robinson started at right guard and practice squad call-up Michael Jordan got the nod at left guard for the third straight week. The potential return of starting left guard Sidy Sow (ankle) this week is one silver lining for a unit that is holding the team back.

“We’ve had a formula we’ve tried to play, and I thought we did a good job of that the first two weeks,” center and longtime captain David Andrews said after the Jets loss. “This wasn’t it.”

New England played without four-time team captain, linebacker and 2023 leading tackler Ja’Whuan Bentley in Week 3, and he was placed on IR this week with a pectoral injury and could miss the rest of the season with his earliest possible return coming in Week 8 when the Patriots play the Jets.

Patriots Thursday injury report: https://t.co/B2zlXt8E9r pic.twitter.com/uvlKsXDePy
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 26, 2024

JOIN NOW

Patriots vs 49ers Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

San Francisco 49ers -725

The 49ers played without Pro Bowlers in running back Christian McCaffrey, receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle last Sunday and blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead in a 27-24 loss at the Rams. Kyren Williams rushed 4 yards to score his third touchdown of the day with 1:51 remaining, and Joshua Karty hit a 37-yard field goal with 2 seconds left to complete the dramatic rally by Los Angeles, which outscored San Francisco 20-3 in the final 19 minutes. The Rams matched their franchise’s biggest second-half comeback victory since 2006. The Niners still led 24-14 midway through the fourth quarter, but Jake Moody missed a 55-yard field goal attempt for San Francisco with 2:43 to play.

Deffense

A Niners defense that held the Rams to zero points, 29 yards and one first down in the opening quarter allowed Los Angeles to post 27 points, 267 yards and 18 first downs over the final three. The Niners also did not force a turnover.

“It was unacceptable,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “We can’t do that. We can’t beat ourselves. Can’t make those type of mistakes again. All three phases have got to play better. We’ll look at the tape, fix it and move on.”

Jauan Jennings

Jennings set career highs with 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns for the 49ers, who blew a lead of at least 14 points for the first time since 2018. He became the fourth player in franchise history to have 175 receiving yards and three scores in the same game. The TDs were more than Jennings had the past two seasons combined, and were the most TDs by a 49ers receiver since Terrell Owens in Week 5, 2001. Jennings’ previous career high in receiving yards was a mere 94 yards.

Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy completed 22-of-30 passes for 292 yards and three touchdowns, and rushed 10 times for 41 yards. His 11.2-yard aDOT was the third-deepest single-game average of his career, and his 86.7 percent adjusted completion rate was his fourth-best. It was also the first time Purdy has ever reached 10 rushing attempts in one game. He suffered a minor back injury but is fine.

Injuries

It’s possible that Kittle plays this week, but Samuel and McCaffrey remain out. McCaffrey, the 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, recently flew to Germany to see a specialist about the Achilles tendonitis that had landed him on IR. McCaffrey will not be eligible to return to game action until Week 6, but Shanahan did not have an answer as to when the star RB will return. McCaffrey’s backup, Jordan Mason, has been very successful in the meantime, however, with 324 yards and two touchdowns.

So Christian McCaffrey reportedly met with specialist in Germany who gave him an opinion. News is emerging that a medical opinion was given to CMC.
The 49ers have released no update to the media but notable 49ers media personalities are feverishly denying any such possibility …
— 360 (@BaySports360) September 27, 2024

Javon Hargrave

Defensive tackle Hargrave suffered a partially torn right triceps in Sunday’s loss to the Rams, an injury that will require surgery and is likely to bring his, 2024 season to an end. Through three games this season, Javon had seven tackles and a sack. Kevin Givens or Jordan Elliott are the possibilities on the active roster to step into a starting role, with end Yetur Gross-Matos capable of moving inside on passing downs.

“It’s a big [loss],” coach Kyle Shanahan said of Hargrave. “I thought he had his best game (vs. the Rams). I thought he was a huge factor, really affected the quarterback in that game. … He’s one of our better players. He was definitely going in the right direction and was going to have a big year.”

Patriots vs 49ers Info

When: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium
TV: FOX
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: https://tv.youtube.com/learn/nflsundayticket/

Patriots vs 49ers Series History

New England and San Francisco will play for the first time since 2020 when the 49ers beat the Patriots 33-6 at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots will travel to San Francisco for the first time since the 2016 season, when the Patriots prevailed 30-17 in their first and only visit to Levi’s Stadium on Nov. 20, 2016. San Francisco holds a 9-5 lead in the series, including 4-2 in home games.

Place your Bets anywhere, anytime by downloading the MyBookie APP