NFL Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction: Who will win?

Super Bowl Sunday is upon us, which means that it’s time for people to get their wallets out and start wagering on the big game. MyBookie Sportsbook | Final Analysis: Which Team Will Win the Super Bowl?

This is the biggest day on the American sports calendar, with most people in the nation at least keeping one eye on how things play out. You need only look at the amount of money spent on wagering on the Super Bowl to get an idea of how the NFL Championship game captures the imagination of even the most casual bettor, and even some who don’t really care about the sport as a whole. Whether you are a betting veteran or just a casual fan, you probably have an idea about who you think will win. We do, too, so let’s see if we can break it all down and get our pick for Super Bowl 58 just right. As it stands at the moment, the 49ers are a modest 2-point favorite over the Chiefs, with the game total set at 47 ½.

Bet Super Bowl 58 Chiefs vs 49ers to Win
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS

Kansas City Chiefs

It proved to be a longer road to the Super Bowl than we probably expected for the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. After going 12-5 in the regular season, they failed to secure the #1 spot in the AFC, which meant having to go on the road to get to this point. The Chiefs got the playoffs rolling with a convincing 26-7 win over the injury ravaged Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card at home. They them squeaked past the Bills on the road in the Divisional Round before taking out the Baltimore Ravens, also on the road, in a defensive battle that they won 17-10.

This has been a different kind of season for the Chiefs, who have leaned heavily on their defense at times. That is not to suggest that the offense is a dud, since you cannot count out a team that has the Mahomes/Kelce partnership ready to go off at any given time. KC were in the middle of the pack with just shy of 22 PPG on offence, but they were 2nd overall in PPG allowed at a touch over 17.

Let’s now talk about betting trends and how that might impact how you all play the game this Sunday night. The one thing that immediately jumps out is their record in non-conference games. The Chiefs are 13-3 SU in their last 16 against the NFC, as well as being 17-3 SU in their last 20 games played on a Sunday.

The Chiefs are on a run that has seen them cover the spread in their last 5 games, as well as going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC West. In their last 9 meetings with the 49ers, KC has covered the spread 7 times.

With the point total, the UNDER has hit in 5 of their last 6 games overall, but when going against the 49ers, 4 of the last 6 meetings have gone OVER the point total. There are some rather convincing trends in there, but let’s look at the 49ers to see how they compare.

Super Bowl Game Picks Odds Subject to Change	SPREAD	MONEYLINE	TOTAL
Kansas City Chiefs	+2	+105	U 47.5
San Francisco 49ers	-2	-125	O 47.5

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers lived up to preseason expectations, which was certainly no easy feat, by going 13-4 to win the division and land the #1 seed in the NFC. That gave them the bye week in the Wild Card Round, as well as home field advantage heading into the postseason. They hosted the Packers in the Divisional Round and found things to be tougher than expected, coming away with a 24-21 win. They then faced the Detroit Lions in the NFC Conference Championship Game and were down 7-24 at one point before getting that act together in the second half to grind out a 34-31 win.

One of the concerns heading into the new season, at least for some, was at the QB position. Yes, Brock Purdy came in and did an amazing job last season but was he going to be a flash in the pan or the real deal. We got the answer rather quickly, with the Katter option being the way things went. He and the offense averaged almost 29 PPG, good for 3rd overall in the NFL, while the D surrendered just 17 PPG, also 3rd best.

The 49ers have now won 9 of their last 11 games overall, but they have also shown that they are more than equipped to handle the pressure of being the favorite, winning 8 of the last 10 games that they started with that label. Those are all very positive stats, to be sure, but things are not quite as good when we get to the point spread.

Things have been close in their 2 playoff games, but that has proven to be something of a trend, with the 49ers covering just once in their last 6 games. They are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Chiefs, although you have to say that this year’s team is much better than in previous seasons, so perhaps we can toss that one out.

When it comes to the point total, it’s tough to get a handle on how things might go for the Niners. The OVER has hit in 6 of their last 9 games overall, but when they have gone up against teams from the AFC West, the UNDER has hit in 5 of the last 7.

Super Bowl 58 Prediction

With all of the information now on front of us, it’s time to make a pick for Super Bowl 58. Like the bookies, I think we are looking at a tight game here. Both teams are very good indeed, but the Super Bowl experience that the Chiefs have in spades may well come into play in this one. I like KC to edge it in a close on, with the total falling slightly under.

Kansas City Chiefs 24, San Francisco 49ers 21

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

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NFL Super Bowl 57

NFL Super Bowl 57: Which Team Will Win the Super Bowl? AFC or NFC?

One of the best ways to figure out a Super Bowl bet is to think about conference. Which team the NFC winner or the AFC winner, played in the better conference? Which team is more battle tested and what do Super Bowl trends based on conference imply about this game. Check out three reasons why AFC winner Kansas City takes home the Lombardi Trophy, and three reasons why the NFC winning Eagles get the hardware. Then check out Super Bowl conference trends as well as a Super Bowl odds money line pick.

When: Sunday, Feb. 12
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Time: 3:30 PM ET

TV / Streaming: FOX
Money Line Odds: Kansas City +103 / Philadelphia -125

Three reasons to bet on AFC Kanas City to win Super Bowl 57

1. Patrick Mahomes plays for the Chiefs
On Thursday night, Mahomes won the NFL MVP. It was Mahomes’ second MVP award of his career.
Magic Mahomes will be searching for a second Super Bowl ring on Sunday. Also, he’s one-hundred percent healthy and save for Mecole Hardman, Patrick’s receiving targets are ready to roll.

2. Andy Reid has had two weeks to put together a game plan
Andy Reid is one of the sports greatest game planers. Reid had a full two weeks to break down the Eagles’ defense.
Andy also knows the Eagles allow 121.6 rushing yards per game. So we should expect Reid to have a plan to take advantage of Philly’s biggest defensive flaw.

3. Travis Kelce can’t be covered
The Eagles are going to have to use more than one defensive back to cover Kelce. Travis will bully a single defensive back while a linebacker won’t be fast enough to contain Kelce, which means the field will be open for Juju Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdez-Scantling.

Kansas City Chiefs Last 5 Games

W – 23-20 vs. Cincinnati
W – 27-20 vs. Jacksonville
W – 31-13 at Las Vegas
W – 27-24 vs. Denver
W – 24-10 vs. Seattle

Three reasons o bet on NFC Philadelphia to win Super Bowl 57

1.The Eagles’ offensive line is healthy
Two of Philadelphia’s three Pro Bowl offensive linemen showed up on Friday’s injury report. Guard Landon Dickerson and right tackle Lance Johnson list as questionable.
Both will go in this game. Also, both figure to upgrade to probable on Saturday or early Sunday, which means the Eagles’ O-line, the best in the NFL, is healthy.

2.Jalen Hurts’ shoulder is close to one-hundred percent
Hurts’ played, uh, hurt in both of the Eagles’ playoff victories. Heading into Sunday, Jalen’s shoulder is either one-hundred percent or over 90 percent. Either way, Jalen should be more effective throwing and rushing the football.

3.Philly was the best team during the regular season
Philadelphia was the best team during the regular season. The Eagles lost three games this season. Two of the losses came against Dallas and New Orleans when Jalen was on the bench due to the shoulder injury. So we shouldn’t emphasize those two losses.

Philadelphia Eagles Last 5 Games

W – 31-7 vs. San Francisco
W – 38-7 vs. NYG
W – 22-16 vs. NYG
L – 10-20 vs. New Orleans
L – 34-40 at Dallas

AFC vs. NFC Super Bowl Trends

2022 Rams 23 – Bengals 20 – NFC
2021 Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9 – NFC
2020 Chiefs 31 – 49ers 20 – AFC
2019 Patriots 13 – Rams 3 – AFC
2018 Eagles 41 – Patriots 33 – NFC
2017 Patriots 34 – Falcons 28 – AFC
2016 Broncos 24 – Panthers 10 – AFC
2015 Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24 – AFC
2014 Seahawks 43 – Broncos 8 – NFC
2013 Ravens 34 – 49ers 31 – AFC

Final AFC or NFC Team to Win the Super Bowl Betting Analysis

Yes, Lane Johnson and Landon Dickerson will play on Sunday. But the fact they showed up on Friday’s injury report is concerning. Dickerson and Johnson are two key parts of the Eagles’ offensive line. If either or both struggle, be sure that Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will take advantage.

Not only that, but Andy Reid will have the perfect strategy to keep the ball out of Jalen Hurts’ hands. Reid will use Isaiah Pacheco and Jerrick McKinnon to control the clock. The AFC wins Super Bowl 57.

Will the AFC or NFC Win the Super Bowl: AFC Kansas City Chiefs +103