NFL Super Bowl 58 Final Analysis: Which Team Will Win the Game?

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Super Bowl Sunday is upon us, which means that it’s time for people to get their wallets out and start wagering on the big game. MyBookie Sportsbook | Final Analysis: Which Team Will Win the Super Bowl?

This is the biggest day on the American sports calendar, with most people in the nation at least keeping one eye on how things play out. You need only look at the amount of money spent on wagering on the Super Bowl to get an idea of how the NFL Championship game captures the imagination of even the most casual bettor, and even some who don’t really care about the sport as a whole. Whether you are a betting veteran or just a casual fan, you probably have an idea about who you think will win. We do, too, so let’s see if we can break it all down and get our pick for Super Bowl 58 just right. As it stands at the moment, the 49ers are a modest 2-point favorite over the Chiefs, with the game total set at 47 ½.

Bet Super Bowl 58 Chiefs vs 49ers to Win
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS

Kansas City Chiefs

It proved to be a longer road to the Super Bowl than we probably expected for the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. After going 12-5 in the regular season, they failed to secure the #1 spot in the AFC, which meant having to go on the road to get to this point. The Chiefs got the playoffs rolling with a convincing 26-7 win over the injury ravaged Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card at home. They them squeaked past the Bills on the road in the Divisional Round before taking out the Baltimore Ravens, also on the road, in a defensive battle that they won 17-10.

This has been a different kind of season for the Chiefs, who have leaned heavily on their defense at times. That is not to suggest that the offense is a dud, since you cannot count out a team that has the Mahomes/Kelce partnership ready to go off at any given time. KC were in the middle of the pack with just shy of 22 PPG on offence, but they were 2nd overall in PPG allowed at a touch over 17.

Let’s now talk about betting trends and how that might impact how you all play the game this Sunday night. The one thing that immediately jumps out is their record in non-conference games. The Chiefs are 13-3 SU in their last 16 against the NFC, as well as being 17-3 SU in their last 20 games played on a Sunday.

The Chiefs are on a run that has seen them cover the spread in their last 5 games, as well as going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC West. In their last 9 meetings with the 49ers, KC has covered the spread 7 times.

With the point total, the UNDER has hit in 5 of their last 6 games overall, but when going against the 49ers, 4 of the last 6 meetings have gone OVER the point total. There are some rather convincing trends in there, but let’s look at the 49ers to see how they compare.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers lived up to preseason expectations, which was certainly no easy feat, by going 13-4 to win the division and land the #1 seed in the NFC. That gave them the bye week in the Wild Card Round, as well as home field advantage heading into the postseason. They hosted the Packers in the Divisional Round and found things to be tougher than expected, coming away with a 24-21 win. They then faced the Detroit Lions in the NFC Conference Championship Game and were down 7-24 at one point before getting that act together in the second half to grind out a 34-31 win.

One of the concerns heading into the new season, at least for some, was at the QB position. Yes, Brock Purdy came in and did an amazing job last season but was he going to be a flash in the pan or the real deal. We got the answer rather quickly, with the Katter option being the way things went. He and the offense averaged almost 29 PPG, good for 3rd overall in the NFL, while the D surrendered just 17 PPG, also 3rd best.

The 49ers have now won 9 of their last 11 games overall, but they have also shown that they are more than equipped to handle the pressure of being the favorite, winning 8 of the last 10 games that they started with that label. Those are all very positive stats, to be sure, but things are not quite as good when we get to the point spread.

Things have been close in their 2 playoff games, but that has proven to be something of a trend, with the 49ers covering just once in their last 6 games. They are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Chiefs, although you have to say that this year’s team is much better than in previous seasons, so perhaps we can toss that one out.

When it comes to the point total, it’s tough to get a handle on how things might go for the Niners. The OVER has hit in 6 of their last 9 games overall, but when they have gone up against teams from the AFC West, the UNDER has hit in 5 of the last 7.

Super Bowl 58 Prediction

With all of the information now on front of us, it’s time to make a pick for Super Bowl 58. Like the bookies, I think we are looking at a tight game here. Both teams are very good indeed, but the Super Bowl experience that the Chiefs have in spades may well come into play in this one. I like KC to edge it in a close on, with the total falling slightly under.

Kansas City Chiefs 24, San Francisco 49ers 21

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