When you look at the weekly schedule in the NFL, there are games that jump off the page for a number of different reasons.
There are some matchups that are a must-watch, while others seem to represent a real opportunity to make some money due to the fact that there appears to be some level of imbalance in the matchup.
NFL Betting Analysis in the Week 12
I think it is fair to say that this game falls into the latter category. We have a team in the midst of a rebuild going against one that could well be on their way to a deep playoff run.
If we have learned anything from watching the NFL over the years is that there really is no such thing as a total lock.
Still, I think this is a matchup that we can wager on with some confidence, so let’s get into it with this one.
The Texans are favored by 7 ½, with the point total set at 40 ½.
^Tennessee Titans Odds +310
It has been, as expected, a long, hard season for the Tennessee Titans, who come into this weekend with a record of 2-8. The Titans have now lost back-to-back games after picking up their second win of the season, and they have not been particularly competitive in the games that they have lost, especially when you look at their games against teams that will almost certainly be playoff bound, which is what the Houston Texans are.
The Titans have just 1 road win versus 4 losses this season. They have not been a great pick against the spread either, and they are now on a run of 6 straight games where they failed to cover. The Titans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 visits to Houston. In terms of the point total, the Titans have seen 6 of their last 8 played in November go UNDER the total.
^Houston Texans Odds -410
Last season was a breakout year for the Texans with rookie QB CJ Stroud under center, and it looks as though they might be heading toward another big season. This is a team that has now won 10 of their last 15 games overall, but it is at home where they have become almost impossible to take down, going 6-1 SU in their last 7 games in their own building.
That includes going 4-1 at home this season, so it certainly feels as though they should be able to improve on that record this weekend. Besides winning straight up, the Texans have also been a very good bet against the spread, covering in 5 of their last 7 games. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games versus the Titans. The UNDER has hit in 7 of their last 10 games overall.
^Titans at Texans Odds & Betting Prediction in Week 12
Given the trends, all signs in this game seem to be pointing toward the UNDER, but I am going the opposite way.
I also think that this is a game where the Texans should be able to cover the spread without too much difficulty.
Tennessee Titans 13, Houston Texans 30
^How to Watch and Bet Titans at Texans Odds in NFL Week 12
Date & Time: Sunday, November 24 at 1 PM EST
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: CBS
Titans and Texans in the AFC South Standings
AFC SOUTH | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | % | PF | PA | Home | Road | Strk |
Texans | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0.636 | 258 | 236 | 4-1-0 | 3-3-0 | 1W |
Colts | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0.455 | 236 | 250 | 3-2-0 | 2-4-0 | 1W |
Titans | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0.200 | 170 | 263 | 1-4-0 | 1-4-0 | 2L |
Jaguars | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0.182 | 208 | 316 | 2-3-0 | 0-6-0 | 4L |
W: Games Won | L: Missed Matches | T: Tied Matches | %: Percentage Victories | PF: Total Points For | PA: Total Points Against | HOME: Home Record | ROAD: Road Record | Strk: Streak
^The Playoff Picture through Week 11! @surface pic.twitter.com/yuvKOY1iQb
— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2024
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