NFL Week 11: Colts vs Bills Betting Analysis & Picks

Two teams fighting for a playoff spot throw down on Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Indianapolis can’t afford to lose any more games this season. Although Buffalo is the favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills are just a game ahead of New England in the NFC East. Which team gets it done in NFL Week 11? See below for NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Colts at Bills.

NFL Betting Preview for Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo

NFL Week 11 Betting | Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bill Game Odds & Info

When: Sunday, Nov. 21 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV / Streaming: CBS / Paramount +
ATS Odds: Buffalo -7 ½
Moneyline Odds: Indianapolis +270 / Buffalo -340
Over/Under Odds: 50

Why bet on Indianapolis versus Buffalo?

The Colts have started to turn things around. Indianapolis began the season losing 4-of-5. Since then, they’ve won 4-of-5. Even though they didn’t cover the spread versus the Jaguars in Week 10, the Colts played great. Indianapolis held Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville to 17 points in the 23-17 victory. If the Colts’ defense plays as spirited on Sunday, Indy can pull off the moneyline upset victory.

Indianapolis Colts Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 363.4

Passing Yards: 227.1

Rushing Yards: 136.3

Points Scored: 26.8

Turnovers: 10

Indianapolis Colts Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 363.6

Passing Yards: 249.9

Rushing Yards: 113.7

Points Scored: 23.0

Takeaways: 21

Why bet on Buffalo versus Indianapolis?

In NFL Week 9, the Bills suffered the most embarrassing loss of the season. Buffalo entered Jacksonville a -13 ½ favorite. The Bills dropped the game 9-6. Last Sunday, Buffalo didn’t wait around for the Jets to beat them. The Bills jumped all over NYJ in the 45-17 win. Now back on track, Buffalo won’t allow a team like Indianapolis to stand in their way.

Buffalo Bills Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 401.1

Passing Yards: 279.2

Rushing Yards: 121.9

Points Scored: 31.1

Turnovers: 10

Buffalo Bills Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 274.1

Passing Yards: 190.2

Rushing Yards: 83.9

Points Scored: 15.0

Takeaways: 22

Colts at Bills Relevant Trends

Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11
Indianapolis 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on the road
Over is 4-0 in the Colts last 4 games following an ATS loss
Bills are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in November
Buffalo is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games
Under is 4-1 in the Bills last 4 games as a favorite

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills Final Betting Prediction

The Bills did put a whupping on the New York Jets. But we shouldn’t read too much into the victory. When Buffalo has faced a tough team, they’ve struggled.

On Sunday, the number one ranked defense in the NFL faces one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Colts signal-caller Carson Wentz is having a decent season.

Wentz has thrown for 2,378 yards and 17 TDs when completing 63.5% of his passes. He’s thrown just 3 picks and has managed the Colts’ offense with ease.

Buffalo can’t just stop Wentz on Sunday. They must deal with Indy’s rushing attack, which yields 136.3 yards per. The biggest problem Buffalo has in this game is turnover ratio.

The Colts have forced 21 turnovers this season. At times, Buffalo’s offense has become stagnant. It was nonexistent against both the Steelers in Week 1 and the Jaguars in Week 10. The Colts may field the best defense the Bills have played in 2021. So it makes sense to consider backing Indy on the moneyline.

NFL Week 11 Pick: Indianapolis Colts moneyline