Rockies vs. Red Sox MLB Lines & Pick for Monday Evening

What do the Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox have in common entering their series opener at Fenway Park on Monday night? Starting pitcher Connor Seabold first and foremost. The Red Sox are solid favorites on the MLB odds.

Rockies vs. Red Sox | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Colorado at Boston MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Connor Seabold/James Paxton
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -250, Rockies +230 (total 10)

Why Bet on Colorado?

The Rockies are missing some of their best hitters due to injury. Both Kris Bryant and CJ Cron had been on the IL, and over the weekend outfielder Charlie Blackmon joined them with a hand fracture. He is hitting .265 with 14 doubles, two triples, five home runs and 26 RBI through 56 games. This is his 13th season on the Rockies, the second-most in franchise history behind Todd Helton’s 17 seasons. Blackmon ranks among franchise leaders in triples (1st), hits (2nd), total bases (2nd), runs (2nd), doubles (2nd), walks (4th), home runs (6th) and RBI (7th). It sounds like he will miss many weeks.

In addition to putting Blackmon on IL, the team Rockies selected the contract of infielder Coco Montes, optioned infielder Alan Trejo to Triple-A Albuquerque, recalled catcher Brian Serven from Triple-A, and transferred starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela to the 60-day injured list.

No. 1 catcher Elias Diaz wasn’t in the starting lineup for Sunday’s series finale against the Padres as he’s dealing with a possible concussion and if so would miss this entire series. Diaz’s .294 average leads all MLB catchers. His 11 catcher caught stealings are third in the Majors, 32.4 caught stealing percentage is fourth (min. 25 games). Diaz’s 1.3 defensive WAR (Baseball Reference) is tied for the second-highest mark among all players, the best among all catchers. Austin Wynns and Serven would platoon behind the plate.

Third baseman Ryan McMahon has reached base in 16 of his last 18 with nine multi-hit games since May 23. McMahon’s 1.9 WAR (Baseball Reference) is the best among NL players with at least 50% of their games at third base this season. His nine defensive runs saved at third base are tied with Ke’Bryan Hayes for the most among third basemen. Since moving from second base to third base on April 18, McMahon has slashed .281/.354/.489 with 15 doubles, two triples, six home runs and 28 RBI.

Back in January, the Red Sox traded right-hander Connor Seabold to Colorado for a player to be named or cash. Seabold had been designated for assignment to clear room on the 40-man roster following the signing of Corey Kluber. Seabold made six career major league appearances with Boston, allowing 25 earned runs in 21⅓ innings with 19 strikeouts. He will take the mound Monday.

Seabold (1-2) allowed two runs on two hits and two walks while striking out four over six-plus innings in a no-decision versus the Giants last Wednesday. Seabold left in line for the win, but poor outings from relievers Brent Suter and Justin Lawrence squandered the Rockies’ lead. It was Seabold’s first career quality start. The right-hander has given up three runs, five hits and four walks while striking out nine over his last 11.1 innings, lowering his ERA to 5.10 and his WHIP to 1.41 with a 36:17 K:BB through 47.2 innings this season.

Seabold said the changeup has been “the difference-maker” for him over the past two starts.

“I’ve just gone back to how I was throwing it before,” he said. “We were worried about the arm slot and how high it was coming out compared to the fastball. And we just put that to the side and just kind of started just throwing it. And so far, it’s been really good.”

While this will be Seabold’s first time facing Boston, he’s 0-3 with a 17.36 ERA in three career starts vs. other AL East teams, allowing 23 hits and 19 runs over 9.1 innings.

Bet Rockies to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Why Bet on Boston?

Boston has 18 come-from-behind wins this season. Opponents have earned only 8 comeback wins against the Red Sox, including 0 walk-off wins. The Sox have won 5 games in which they trailed after 7 innings (had 4 such wins in all of 2022). They have lost only 1 game in which they led after 7 innings. The Red Sox have played 42 games against teams that entered with a winning record, tied with for the second most in MLB.

The Red Sox are 20-6 (.769) when scoring the game’s 1st run, compared to 12-27 (.308) when their opponent scores 1st. The Sox are 24-2 (.923) when leading after 6 innings. In their last 8 games, the Red Sox are 10-for-73 (.137) with runners in scoring position. Overall with RISP, the Sox rank 4th in the majors in AVG (.282), OBP (.360), and strikeout rate (19.5%), as well as 7th in OPS (.804).

It’s lefty James Paxton (2-1) on the hill Monday. Paxton (2-1) picked up the win last Tuesday, giving up two runs on six hits and two walks over seven innings in a 5-4 victory over the Guardians. He struck out nine. The veteran looked like he was in for a short night after needing 28 to get through the first inning, putting Boston in a 2-0 hole, but Paxton got locked in after that and gave his club a chance to come back.

“It was great,” said Paxton, who turned in his first start of at least seven innings since Sept. 3, 2019. “That’s always the goal, is to hear that seventh-inning stretch song when you go out there.”

Paxton led with his heat, throwing 68 percent fastballs over a 106-pitch performance in which he topped out at 97.7 mph and generated 24 swings and misses. The quality start was his second in five outings since coming off the IL, and he carries a 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and impressive 36:9 K:BB through 26 innings into Monday.

“We feel really confident whenever Paxton is taking the bump right now,” said Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder. “He’s got pretty special stuff as you see. A high 90s fastball, kind of just bearing in. He gives us ace-caliber stuff.”

Bet Red Sox to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game