Pitching Duel or Bronx Bombardment? MLB Betting Lines and Expert Analysis for A’s vs Yankees

Just a slight bit of a difference in payroll and talent level between the Oakland A’s and New York Yankees this season as they conclude their four-game series from the Bronx on Thursday with the Yanks as heavy favorites again on the MLB odds

2024 MLB Expert Analysis Oakland at NY Yankees | MyBookie MLB Week 4

How to Bet A’s vs Yankees MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Probable pitchers (away/home): Alex Wood/Nestor Cortes
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Yankees -260, A’s +179 (total 4.5)

Why Bet on Oakland A’s?

The A’s remain without one of their bigger bats in third baseman/DH JD Davis as he’s on the injured list with a groin injury. He was cut during spring training by the Giants after beating the team in salary arbitration. He was entitled to just over $1.1 million in termination pay rather than a $6.9 million salary. The A’s signed him to a one-year deal worth up to $2.5 million. Davis hit .248 with 18 home runs and 69 RBIs last year with the Giants and is at .196 with two homers in 14 games with Oakland.

Zack Gelof is the only Athletic to start every game this season and has now started each of the A’s last 88 games at second base dating back to July 20, 2023. The A’s have scored three runs or fewer in 15 games already. They have the second lowest batting average (.204), the third lowest on-base percentage (.277) and OPS (.619) and the fourth lowest slugging percentage (.342) in the majors. Defensively, the A’s lead the majors in most double plays (32) and are on pace to turn 209 double plays, which would break the Oakland record of 195 set in 1996.

It’s struggling Alex Wood (0-2, 7.89) on the mound Thursday. Wood took the loss last Saturday in Cleveland, yielding four runs on eight hits and a walk over five frames. He struck out four. Wood gave up a pair of runs in the first inning, and while he settled down over the next few frames, a two-run homer from Josh Naylor in the fifth prevented this from being anything but another poor start from the southpaw.

Wood has allowed at least four runs in three of his five outings, and that helps explain his unhealthy 7.89 ERA thus far. He also has yielded a whopping 33 hits over 21.2 innings, in addition to issuing 11 walks. His FIP is a slightly more palatable 5.40 but his 10.2% walk rate would be the highest mark of his career and his 18.5% strikeout rate isn’t far off his career-worst mark of 17.2% set last season.

Wood is down between 1-2 mph on all three of his pitches compared to where he was between 2021-2023. The last time he was throwing at this low a velocity was back in 2019, when he was dealing with a significant back injury that limited him to just 35.2 innings that season.

This is Wood’s first season in Oakland. After combining for 269 1/3 innings from 2021-22 as a mainstay of the San Francisco Giants’ rotation, he was utilized in more of a swingman role in ‘23. Dealing with separate back and hamstring injuries, Wood made 12 starts and appeared in a total of 29 games, posting a 4.33 ERA with 74 strikeouts and 42 walks in 97 2/3 innings.

The A’s signed Wood to a one-year, $8.5 million contract in February with the hope that he could help bring some stability to a rotation that tied an MLB record with 24 different starting pitchers used last season and whose 738 innings pitched were the least by any staff in the American League. However, Wood’s time in the rotation might be over if he struggles again on Thursday.

The Yankees are the only team Wood has never faced in his career, and Yankee Stadium and Detroit’s Comerica Park are the only active ballparks in which he has never pitched.

Oakland Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Why Bet on New York Yankees?

New York was hoping to soon see the season debut of infielder and usual leadoff hitter DJ LeMahieu by the end of this month, but that’s now unlikely after LeMahieu was removed from Tuesday’s minor league rehab game for Double-A Somerset due to right foot soreness. LeMahieu struck out in his lone plate appearances and lasted just one inning at third base in his rehab assignment debut before leaving the contest.

It was a concerning development for LeMahieu, who had not played in a game since March 16 when he fouled a ball off his right foot and sustained a non-displaced fracture. LeMahieu had been ramping up his workload over the past few weeks — including fielding ground balls at third base, taking batting practice on the field and doing a running progression that included cutting.

“I know how much he loves this team, this clubhouse, the game and how he was pushing to get back, so that’s tough,” Anthony Rizzo said. “I’m going to text him and see how he’s doing. Obviously whenever you have a setback, it’s not fun. But it’s about getting healthy and getting him right.”

It’s lefty Nestor Cortes (1-1) for the Yankees. Cortes allowed six hits over seven scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Rays last Saturday. He struck out nine without issuing a walk. Cortes matched zeros with Zach Eflin and induced 17 whiffs on 102 total pitches, but the game wasn’t decided until the 10th, when the Rays scored the only runs of the game. Cortes’ nine strikeouts and 17 swing-and-misses marked his most in a game since recording 12 and 19, respectively, on Oct. 1, 2022, against the Orioles.

Cortes couldn’t use the pump-fake pitch unveiled against the Guardians — MLB deemed that an illegal move –— but relied on four-seamers, cutters, sweepers and changeups to keep Rays hitters off-balance. Cortes at one point sped up his windup. Another time, Cortes dipped his arm and threw a two-strike, sidearm sweeper past Isaac Paredes in the fourth inning for his sixth punchout.

“Hopefully, I can continue to do that and go back to my old self like I was in 2022,” said Cortes, who has held his opponents scoreless in two of his last three outings and has his ERA down to 3.41 through five starts this season. Cortes has allowed 3R-or-fewer in 49-of-59 starts since the beginning of 2021 and 2R-or-fewer in 41 of those starts. He is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA in 17.1 career innings vs. Oakland.

The Yankees are in the midst of a 17-day stretch without an off day and have won six of their seven completed series this season. New York has had 20 games decided by three runs or fewer, the most such games in the majors. The Yankees are 9-0 this season when they lead after six innings, 13-0 when leading after seven innings and 13-0 when leading after eight innings.

New York Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

A’s vs Yankees Expert Prediction

Yankees 5, A’s 3

MLB Conferences Winners

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