Braves vs Phillies NLDS Odds and Game 4 Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies can punch their ticket to a second straight NL Championship Series with a win over the visiting Atlanta Braves on Thursday in Game 4 of the NLDS, but the Braves are favorites behind NL Cy Young contender Spencer Strider. | 2023 MLB Playoffs Expert Analysis | MyBookie Sportsbook | NL Disivion Series Game 4: Braves vs Phillies

How to Bet Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 6:07 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Spencer Strider/Ranger Suarez
TV: TBS
Stream/gameday audio: TBS app
Opening MLB Lines: Braves -160, Phillies +140 (total 9)

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves had the best record in the majors this season and tied a big-league record with 309 homers but their bats have largely gone quiet in this series as they trail 2-1 following a 10-2 loss on Wednesday. If not for a late comeback in Game 2, the Braves would already be out.

After going hitless in the first two games of the series, star Ronald Acuña Jr. was one of the few bright spots for Atlanta on Wednesday as he collected a pair of hits, scored a run, and also picked up a stolen base.

Ace right-hander Spencer Strider gets the call on the mound Thursday. He pitched well in a losing effort against the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday, surrendering only two runs (one earned) on five hits over seven strong frames. Strider racked up eight strikeouts on the night while issuing two free passes.

The Phillies scored out an unearned run in the fourth inning as Bryce Harper worked a one-out walk, took second on an errant pickoff throw from Strider, and then scored on a two-out RBI single off the bat of Bryson Stott. Harper then crushed a 375-foot solo shot off of him in the sixth inning. Strider generated 22 swings and misses on 94 pitches on the night — 13 on his slider and nine on his fastball — while registering an elite CSW of 37 percent.

Strider, who led the majors in strikeouts this season and could finish as high as second in the NL Cy Young voting, was seen in the dugout having an animated conversation with pitching coach Rick Kranitz before his removal after only 94 pitches. Braves manager Brian Snitker said Strider wanted to stay in the game and downplayed the emotional moment.

“I was just having a personal conversation with him,” Strider said. “Unfortunately for me, sometimes my conversations are on camera, and I’m guilty of showing emotion when I speak at times.”

Strider also faced the Phillies in his only career postseason start, Game 3 of the 2022 NLDS, and allowed three hits and five runs over 2.1 innings to take the loss.

During the regular season, he was 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 281 strikeouts, breaking John Smoltz’s franchise record of 276. Among qualified starters, he finished first in K/9 rate (13.55), second in FIP (2.71), while ranking fourth in WHIP (1.07) in the National League. The Braves won 26 of Strider’s games this season, the most by any team with an individual pitcher as a starter. He was 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four RS starts vs. the Phillies.

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Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phillies routed the Braves 10-2 in Game 3 on Wednesday behind the first two-homer playoff game of Bryce Harper’s career. It was reminiscent of Game 3 of last year’s NLDS, when the Phils won 9-1 to take a 2-1 series lead over Atlanta.

With the game tied at 1 in the third inning Wednesday, Harper teed off on a slider from Atlanta starter Bryce Elder for a go-ahead three-run homer. Harper then hit a solo shot in the fifth. Through his second homer, Harper was 13-for-25 (.520) with eight extra-base hits (including five homers) and 10 RBIs in seven career postseason games against Atlanta. Harper has homered in four of the past five playoff meetings.

“It’s almost inhuman at times, but you kind of expect it,” Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long said of Harper on the TBS broadcast. “The bigger the moment, the more he seems to come through.”

Philadelphia set a club record — and matched the MLB mark — with six home runs on Wednesday. The only other team to hit six homers in a playoff game is the Cubs, who did so in Game 3 of the 2015 NLDS against the Cardinals. Nick Castellanos also had two for the Phils. Trea Turner hit a solo shot in the sixth, while Brandon Marsh went back-to-back with Castellanos in the eighth. Harper and Castellanos became just the fourth set of teammates in MLB postseason history to notch a multihomer effort in the same game.

It’s expected to be lefty Ranger Suarez on the hill for the Phillies here. The 28-year-old posted a 4.18 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 22 starts during the regular season, but he surrendered 10 runs over 11.1 frames across his last two outings. He was much better in Game 1 of this series, allowing just one hit and one walk over 3 2/3 innings of shutout baseball in a no-decision.

Suarez struck out four batters on the night. It was expected that the Phillies would have a quick hook for Suarez on Saturday, and that proved to be the case — lifting him with two men on and two outs in the fourth inning. He got eight swings and misses on just 53 pitches in the ballgame, posting a CSW of 26 percent. The highest exit velocity against Suarez from the 13 batters he faced was 92.2 mph, with the average exit velocity sitting at a meager 83.1 mph. That’s good.

With a 1-0 lead to protect, Manager Rob Thomson called on right-hander Jeff Hoffman to help the Phillies out of danger after Suarez in the opener. Hoffman walked Marcell Ozuna, but then struck out Michael Harris II using a pair of nasty splitters, leaving the Phils’ slim lead intact. They would win 3-0.

In the regular season, opposing hitters had a 108 OPS+ (relative to league average) against Suárez the second time around, a decrease from a 115 OPS+ the first time that they faced him. Expect another short outing in Game 4.

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Braves vs Phillies Expert Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

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