Monday Night Football Week 10 Odds: Broncos vs Bills

The Buffalo Bills have really struggled on the road this season but have been largely dominant at home and host the Denver Broncos, who come off their bye week, on Monday to conclude Week 10 with the Bills as touchdown favorites on the NFL odds. 2023 NFL Expert Analysis Broncos vs Bills MNF | MyBookie Sportsbook NFL Regular Season: September 7, 2023 – January 7, 2024 | Week 10 NFL

How to Bet Broncos at Bills NFL Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Where: Highmark Stadium
TV: ABC/ESPN
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: ESPN+
Opening NFL Lines: Bils -7 (47.5)

Series History

All-time, Buffalo leads Denver 23-16-1. The last matchup was in 2020 with the Bills prevailing 48-19 at home. Josh Allen threw for 359 yards, hitting Stefon Diggs 11 times for 147 yards before he suffered a foot injury in the fourth quarter, and Cole Beasley eight times for 112 yards. Allen also rushed for two scores. Drew Lock was the Denver QB that day and threw for only 132 yards. He’s long gone now.

Why Bet on Denver?

The Broncos are as healthy as possible off their bye week without a single player listed on the injury report. Outside linebacker Baron Browning (wrist) and guard Ben Powers (ankle) were full participants for the third consecutive practice on Saturday, and neither player was assigned a game status in terms of an injury.

Denver’s defense was one of the NFL’s worst in the early going but has really turned things around. After allowing 36.2 points per game in the first five weeks, Denver has allowed 15 points per game over the last three contests. The Broncos’ total defense (450.6 YPG to 331.3 YPG), rushing defense (187.6 YPG to 98.3 YPG) and opposing passing rating (124.6 to 80.9) have also improved over the last three games.

“It was early still,” DC Vance Joseph said. “It wasn’t good obviously. But you can’t panic. Just keep coaching — that’s what we do. It’s more about thinking [rather] than being emotional and finding the reasons why we weren’t playing good. That’s my job. It’s me. I’m a guy that’s pretty laid-back anyway, but as a coach when things are not going right, it’s my job to kind of find ways to make it better and to explain vs. trying to dictate or to coach with fear. That never works. Finding ways to improve the defense quickly, that was my goal.”

During the past three games offensively, coach Sean Payton has used QB Russell Wilson more like Tim Tebow than Drew Brees. Twice the Broncos have produced fewer than 100 net passing yards. With running back Javonte Williams finally rounding into form after his remarkable recovery from a serious knee injury, they have adopted a power brand of football that bruised the Green Bay Packers and put a dent in the Kansas City Chiefs. To get out of their early season rut, the Broncos have begun to find their groove with a run-heavy offense featuring Williams and rookie Jaleel McLaughlin.

But Denver will contend with one of the most raucous environments in the game when they travel to Buffalo to take on the 5-4 Bills at Highmark Stadium. Offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey said that energy and the chance to silence the home crowd will make Monday’s contest a thrilling opportunity.

“[The atmosphere] makes it fun,” McGlinchey said. “I grew up in Philadelphia, so I know what rowdy crowds are and how they act. I think these guys are no different. It’s going to be exciting for us to go into an environment like that and hopefully get a win.”

Young star cornerback Patick Surtain has continued his strong play. He leads the Broncos with eight passes defensed, and he’s one of 10 NFL defenders to have played every snap this season. According to Next Gen Stats, 32.5 percent of throws with Surtain as the nearest defender are considered tight-window throws, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league among defenders with at least 30 targets.

The Broncos look to earn their first road prime-time win since 2020 and their first “Monday Night Football” victory since 2017. The Broncos have not won three consecutive games overall since Weeks 1-3 during the 2021 season.

Why Bet on Buffalo?

Buffalo ranks fifth in the NFL in scoring offense, and Josh Allen leads the NFL with 24 touchdowns. The Wyoming product ranks tied for second in passing touchdowns, and he’s added another six scores with his legs. A dangerous player, Allen has been particularly efficient after a loss; his .808 win percentage in games following a loss is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

Allen, however, has also turned the ball over at a high rate in 2023. Entering Week 10, his nine interceptions were tied for most in the league, and he’s thrown an interception in five consecutive games. The Broncos, meanwhile, have recorded an interception in five consecutive games, which is tied for the second-longest active streak in the NFL.

The Bills are a perfect 4-0 at Highmark Stadium this season. Even better, when Allen starts at quarterback for Buffalo the team is 21-5 coming off a loss, the best win-loss record in the Super Bowl era.

“We’ve got our best football to play,” said Allen. “It’s in front of us. We’re not going to let the fact that we’re 5-4 divide us apart. We’ve had stretches where we haven’t played up to our standard in the past and we’ve always found a way through those. So that’s what we’re doing right now. We’re trying to find a way through it. We’ve got an opportunity Monday night at home against a hungry team in the Denver Broncos. So, we’ve got to be ready. We’ve got to do everything we can do to get a win.”

The Bills were held to just 18 points against the Bengals in a Week 9 loss as Buffalo scored right away on their first drive but didn’t score another TD until the fourth quarter. The group has now been held to under 20 points in three games this season. So far this season, after each outing where the Bills scored under 20, the following game Buffalo scored at least 25 points.

We’ve seen the threat this offense can pose to opposing teams as they consistently scored more than 30 points per game to start the season. Buffalo was averaging 41 points per game during Weeks 2 through 4. In the last four weeks, they’re averaging 20.25 points per game.

The Bills will be without cornerback Christian Benford (hamstring) and safety Micah Hyde (neck/stinger). Linebacker Terrel Bernard (concussion) is questionable for the game. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who was added to the injury report on Friday with a back injury, was limited again Saturday but will play. Taylor Rapp is expected to take over Hyde’s starting spot. Rapp has mostly contributed in a depth safety role and on special teams this season. Rapp got the start in Week 4 against the Dolphins when Poyer was ruled out with a knee injury, and the former played every single defensive snap and recorded six tackles (five solo).

NFL Regular Season Expert Prediction

Bills 30, Broncos 23

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