2024 MLB AL East Betting Analysis and Predictions

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Baseball fans have finally arrived at the moment they have been waiting for all winter long, which is the start of the new MLB season. The action gets underway later this week, and while the cream may not rise to the top for a few weeks, it’s always fun to see the division races start to play out, even though we all know they will probably look very different at the end of the season. It seems as though every new season delivers a surprise team jumping out to a fast start, only to find it impossible to maintain that pace. Similarly, some of the early favorites will start slowly and build a head of steam as the season progresses. It’s all exciting to watch, and while we will be keeping an eye on all the races, for this piece, we are focusing on the AL East and MLB betting analysis.

MLB AL East Season Predictions: Winner and Upset | MLB Odds & Lines

New York Yankees

The Yankees won the division last year in a bit of a canter, but it was not the season that everyone expected. They came flying out of the gate and looked set to break all kinds of records, but they fell well off the pace in the second half, ending the year with 99 wins. Aaron Judge had a season for the ages and will be back in the fold after signing a new contract. The Yankees are the favorites to win the division again, but they will have some stiff competition that will not make it a slam dunk.

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Toronto Blue Jays

If anyone can overtake the Yankees to win the division, it would be the Blue Jays. They are blessed with power from top to bottom and should once again score a ton of runs, but they need more from their pitching staff, who let them down badly in the Wild Card last year. That looks to me like it will happen, which makes this team very dangerous indeed. In fact, I might be more than a little tempted to take the Blue Jays to win the East.

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays do not have a ton of money to throw around, but they are still one of the best organizations in the business. They have made the playoffs in each of the last 4 seasons and will be looking to make it 5 in a row, although their path to the postseason will likely need to be through the Wild Card, as I simply don’t seem them able to keep up with the Yankees and Blue Jays. Still, another Wild Card spot is not out of the question.

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Baltimore Orioles

This was the surprise team of the division, and probably the entire MLB last season, with the Orioles just missing out on the Wild Card. The feeling was that they would jump into free agency and nab some veterans to mix in with their talented young squad, but the front office chose to essentially stand pat. That shows a distinct lack of ambition and could prevent this team from being a legit challenger. Still, if you are going to choose an upset in this division, the Orioles might be the team to look at.

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Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox had an awful year in 2022, and while they did spend some money in the offseason, the loss of Xander Bogaerts might well negate all the moves they made. This looks like a team a long way off from being a challenger, and I would be stunned if they were still in the running for a Wild Card spot heading into the second half of the season.

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Previous Betting News

While some divisions in the MLB are somewhat predictable, there are others where we could potentially have several teams in the hunt to win. For a while, it was the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox who routinely slugged It out for dominance, but there has been a bit of a shift in the balance of power over the past few seasons. Heading into 2023, the Red Sox aren’t really in the picture in terms of winning the division, but the big question is whether any team can topple the Yankees. That is what we are going to look at today as we try to figure out how the AL East will play out this coming season. Let’s look at the current MLB odds.

AL EAST Favorites to Win, Upsets, and Surprises for the 2023 Season | MLB Betting

New York Yankees (+120)

The Yankees set an absolutely torrid pace in the early part of last season, but it was a pace that proved to be impossible to sustain. They ended up finishing the regular season with a record of 99-63, which was good enough to win the division by 7 games. A big part of their success was the performance of Aaron Judge, who hit a record-setting 62 runs in 2022. The Yankees will be strong again and are going to be tough to knock off.

Toronto Blue Jays (+220)

If any team in the East can knock the Yankees out of top spot this season, you would have to think that it would be the Toronto Blue Jays. They finished 2nd last season with a record of 92-74, which was good enough to get them to the Wild Card, where they were unceremoniously swept by Seattle. This team will score a ton of runs again this season, and if they can get more out of their starting pitchers, they could give the Yankees a run for their money.

Tampa Bay Rays (+300)

The strength of the East was on full display last season, with no less than 3 teams making it to the postseason. The Rays ended the regular season with an 86-76 record, making it to the Wild Card, where they were swept by the Guardians. The Rays have been in the postseason in each of the last 4 years. This, though, is the definition of a team concept, as the Rays don’t really have any big-name players like others do. I think they might actually be a little better this season, so look for another Wild Card trip.

Boston Red Sox (+2000)

It was a big backward step for Boston last year after going all the way to the ALCS in 2021. They ended 2022 with a truly disappointing 78-84 record, which prompted them to make some major changes in the offseason. This is a lineup that is going to look very different than it did last year, which makes things a little more difficult to predict. The new guys are going to need to get up to speed quickly in what is a challenging division.

Baltimore Orioles (+2500)

The Orioles have now gone 6 straight seasons without a trip to the postseason, but there are some signs that their rebuild is beginning to bear some fruit. They improved by an astonishing 31 wins season on season, going 83-79 in 2022. That still left them well off the pace, but there is certainly a feeling that they might take another forward step this year, albeit still not big enough to compete for the division.

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Both sides have struck a deal and we are going to get a full baseball season in 2022. That is a relief when you consider that it looked as though we might not reach this point anytime soon. Now that we know the regular season is coming, it’s time to start breaking things down to see which teams might be in the World Series hunt this season. There are the obvious favorites, but there are also a few teams who might just upset the apple cart and become a legit dark horse. We are going to take a look at every division ahead of the season opener. Let’s get the ball rolling with the AL East so you can plan your bets against the MLB AL Division Odds.

NL East Season Predictions: Winner and Upset | MLB Betting

A Quick Breakdown of the AL East Teams

You could make a case for 4 of the 5 teams in this division, but we need to start by looking at the Tampa Bay Rays, who won the East last year by 8 games. They were the only team in the division to win 100 games. The Rays are probably the favorite to win it again this season, but they will also have a little bit of a cushion given that 6 teams from each league now go into the playoffs.

Given their moves in the offseason, you have to believe that the Toronto Blue Jays are going all-in on a World Series run. I think they could well be the biggest threat to the Rays this season, assuming that their new acquisitions gel quickly. There are going to be a lot of bettors looking at the Blue Jays to win the East and maybe go all the way.

The New York Yankees always need to be considered a threat to win this division, but there is a definite sense that there is a changing of the guard taking place in the AL East. The biggest problem that the Yankees face this season is the status of their unvaccinated players. We know that none will be able to play in Toronto when they travel there, but they might also have trouble at home. That may be what derails them from making a run.

The Boston Red Sox do have a shot at winning the division, but in reality, a Wild Card spot looks like a more reasonable way for them to get in. Their weakness seems to lie in the pitching department and particularly in the bullpen, where they appear to be rather thin. This is such a cutthroat division, though, that the Red Sox might just do enough to book a postseason spot.

There really isn’t much point in going into too much detail about the Baltimore Orioles, as they look to be well behind every other team in this division in terms of competitiveness. The fact of the matter is that they are likely to be officially eliminated long before we get to the homestretch of the regular season.

Division Winner Prediction

Given how dominant they were last season, not to mention the pitching staff they have in place, the Tampa Bay Rays look like the team to beat in the AL East. While it would not really be considered a huge upset, taking a gamble on the Toronto Blue Jays might not be a bad idea either.

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