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The Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays have both underachieved this season so far, after both had playoff expectations.

They open a series north of the border on Monday afternoon, with the Astros as favorites on the MLB odds behind red-hot Hunter Brown. It’s the lone matinée on a very light Monday slate.

MLB Picks: Astros -145, Blue Jays +125 (total 8.5)
Score Prediction: Houston 5, Toronto 3

Houston Astros Moneyline -141

Through 4/26, the Astros were 7-19 after 26 games. Since 4/27, they are 35-22 (.614) in their last 57 games, which is the best win percentage in the AL West in that span and fourth-best in the AL.

Injuries to Consider

The Astros were hoping to activate All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker off the injured list on Monday, but that’s apparently not happening. He has been out since June 3 with a right shin contusion and recently had a bit of a setback.

He took 35 swings off a batting tee on Friday and ran on the treadmill again. Furthermore, he said he’s easing back into hitting and trying to move around as normal as he can on the treadmill.

Tucker is one of three Houston players who advanced to Phase 2 of the voting process for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game along with second baseman Jose Altuve and DH Yordan Alvarez.

All-Star Players

The Astros and Orioles (6) are the only AL teams with three-plus representatives on the final ballot. Altuve now has an 82-game errorless streak at second base, which is the second-longest in franchise history, trailing only his 88-game errorless streak from Aug. 17, 2013-May 27, 2014.

All-Star closer Josh Hader is back on track. After allowing nine runs in his first 11 appearances, Hader’s allowed only six runs in his last 24 appearances.

Who’s on the Mound?

It’s righty Hunter Brown on the hill Monday. Brown (5-5, 4.37 ERA) picked up the win last Tuesday against Colorado, allowing two hits and three walks with seven strikeouts across 6.0 scoreless innings.

Brown landed his fourth consecutive win and generated his seventh straight quality start. He largely stayed out of trouble, with just two runners reaching scoring position and nobody surpassing first base until the fourth inning.

Brown was 4-0 in 5 starts in June with an AL-best 1.16 ERA (4ER/31IP). He ranked T-1st in the AL in wins (4) and second in opp. batting avg. (.189) in June.

Additionally, his 1.16 ERA was tied for the lowest ever in June by an Astros pitcher. Daryl Kile also posted a 1.16 ERA (4ER/31IP) in June of 1993.

He emerged from them with a 9.78 ERA. It spurred Brown to reintroduce a sinker, a mid-90s pitch that runs into right-handed hitters and keeps them from keying on his four-seamer and other pitches that break away.

As Brown has deployed his sinker more — he threw 17 of them on 94 total pitches last time out— he has displayed an uptick as well in his overall velocity.

Since May 22, Astros starting pitchers have the best ERA in the Majors with a 3.20 clip in that span, while also posting an ML-best .214 opp. batting average. Brown is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in one career start vs. Toronto.

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Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +115

For Sunday’s finale against the Yankees, the Jays rested both second baseman Davis Schneider and shortstop Bo Bichette. Scheider has a .165/.221/.304 slash line through 25 games.

Injuries to Consider

Bichette got a scheduled day off after he started the past four games upon his return from the injured list Tuesday. Since coming off the IL, Bichette has gone 3-for-17 with three walks, a double and five runs.

Closer Jordan Romano has been shut down from throwing again after experiencing renewed right elbow discomfort. At this point, it’s possible the 31-year-old veteran closer could wind up requiring season-ending surgery.

Romano is 1-2 with a 6.59 ERA and eight saves in nine chances this season, his sixth. He matched his career high with 36 saves last year. It’ll continue to be Chad Green closing for Toronto until Yimi García (elbow) returns from the injured list.

Tim Mayza

Over the weekend, the Blue Jays designated struggling left-hander Tim Mayza for assignment and recalled right-hander Jose Cuas from Triple-A Buffalo. Toronto’s longest-tenured player, Mayza was 0-1 with an 8.03 ERA in 35 games.

Hitters

Since April 27, Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has posted a .332 average, ranking second in the majors. He has racked up 149 hard hit balls this year (95+ MPH), behind only Shohei Ohtani (151) for the most in MLB.

Over his last 34 games, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has batted .336 with 10 extra-base hits and 20 RBI for a .513 SLG% and a .902 OPS.

The Blue Jays lead all MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (53), while sitting 5th in Outs Above Average (16). The Jays have also turned 64 double plays this year, T-4th most in the AL. Daulton Varsho has tallied an MLB-leading 15 Defensive Runs Saved this year (nine in LF, six in CF).

Who’s on the Mound?

It’s rookie righty Yariel Rodriguez (0-2, 5.94) on the mound Monday.

Rodriguez built up to four innings and 79 pitches over six rehab appearances with Triple-A Buffalo prior to coming off the 15-day injured list on June 21, but he wasn’t able to improve upon that workload in his return to the big club.

He needed 52 pitches to record just four outs and took a loss to the Guardians while giving up five runs (four earned) on two hits and three walks in his first start for Toronto since April 29.

Rodríguez was one of the free agent market’s biggest mysteries, bringing considerable upside from his time pitching in Cuba and Japan, but he had not pitched competitively since the 2023 World Baseball Classic in March.

Following that event, Rodríguez did not return to his professional team in Japan, the Chunichi Dragons, and was later declared an MLB free agent, allowing him to sign at the prime age of 27.

The jury is still out on whether Rodríguez will become an effective major-league starter, but one thing is clear: He’s too good for the minors. During a rehab assignment, Rodríguez carved through the opposition with ease. He struck out 23 and allowed three earned runs across 14 innings.

Betting Astros at Blue Jays MLB Odds

When: Monday, 3:07 PM ET
Where: Rogers Centre
Pitchers (away/home): Hunter Brown/Yariel Rodriguez
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/