Brewers vs Diamondbacks: Expert Picks & Score Prediction

It’s a possible NL playoff preview in a series opener on Thursday night as the wild-card contending Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Milwaukee Brewers, who are favored on the MLB odds.

The Brew Crew may have clinched the NL Central title by the time you have read this, and that could affect resting some guys on Thursday.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Brewers -105, Diamondbacks -117 (total 8)
Expert Prediction: Brewers 5, Diamondbacks 4

Why Bet on Arizona?

Arizona, chasing an NL wild-card spot, remains without one of its better hitters in outfielder Lourdes Gurriel, who is on the injured list with a left calf strain suffered on Sept. 1. Manager Torey Lovullo previously said that he was “hopeful” that Gurriel could return sometime during the club’s current road trip, so we might see Gurriel this weekend in Milwaukee. He is hitting .270 with 17 homers with 70 RBIs and a .744 OPS.

Ketel Marte

All-Star second baseman Marte has 32 homers, one shy of a new career high. He also hit 32 in 2019 when he finished fourth in the NL MVP voting. Marte leads all MLB second basemen (minimum 100 games) in OPS (.917), OBP (.366), SLG (.552), homers (32), RBI (87), XBH (55) and bWAR (5.8).

Brandon Pfaadt

It’s right-hander on the hill Thursday. Pfaadt (9-9) took the loss last Saturday at home vs. the Brewers, allowing eight runs on seven hits and three walks while failing to record a strikeout over 1.2 innings. Pfaadt was on the hook for a seven-run second inning that was capped off by Willy Adames’ grand slam. He threw only 58 pitches. Pfaadt traced his struggles to the effectiveness of his slider, a pitch he relies on in a variety of situations.

📉Brandon Pfaadt last night vs MIL

1.2 IP
7 H
8 R
8 ER
3 BB
0 K
HR
L (9-9) pic.twitter.com/JFQzBBRdf6
— PHX Fans (@PHXFansAZ) September 15, 2024

“It’s a work in progress,” Pfaadt said. “It’s obviously our best pitch. When we don’t have that, when we’re not commanding that, we have to rely on other pitches. I think kind of the adjustment we need to make before next week, before we face them again, is getting that back and being aggressive with that, and obviously throwing more strikes.”

It was the fifth time in six starts that Pfaadt has given up at least four runs, though it was by far the shortest outing of the season. His ERA ballooned from 4.42 to 4.81, and he’s added a 1.27 WHIP and 160:39 K:BB through 166.2 innings over 29 starts. Pfaadt is nearly at his career high for innings, which is 167 across all levels in 2022, and it appears he’s wearing down a bit.

Over his past five outings, Pfaadt has thrown 22 innings and given up 25 earned runs for a 10.23 ERA. The damage has included a whopping 40 hits, with four homers. This has been a very difficult stretch for the 25-year-old, who had been the rock for a banged up rotation throughout much of the season — he is the only member of the starting five to not spend time on the injured list.

Torey Lovullo

“I think he’s going to be fine. I think he’s going to find a way back to commanding the baseball,” Lovullo said. “Do I think it’s part of the fatigue factor? It could be, but he says he feels good.”

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Betting Lines provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers, who could clinch the NL Central tonight if they didn’t Wednesday, will be in the postseason for the 10th time in franchise history and sixth time in the last seven seasons. The Brewers and Dodgers are the only teams in the Major Leagues to collect 86+ wins in each of the last seven full seasons (does not include 2020).

Willy Adames

Adames has a franchise-record 32 HR as a shortstop this season, breaking his own record of 31 HR in 2022. Adames (109 RBI as of Wednesday) needs just 4 RBI to tie Robin Yount (113 in 1982) for the most RBI for a shortstop in a season in franchise history.

Colin Rea

Rea is not listed among the Brewers’ probable starters for this series versus the Diamondbacks, and could be shifted to a relief role ahead of the postseason. Rea’s last start came on Sept. 11, when he was blasted for 10 runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants. He then threw 2.2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen to pick up a save in Monday’s win over the Phillies. He’s posted a 6.82 ERA over his last seven appearances (six starts).

Joey Payamps

The current reliever has been dealing with some forearm tightness of late, which is never a good thing, so his status going forward is TBA. Payamps is 3-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 62 appearances this season. He has six saves in nine chances to go along with 19 holds. He’s struck out 50 batters and walked 17 in 53 2/3 innings.

Tobias Myers

The rookie right-hander starts Thursday. Myers (8-5) allowed four runs on nine hits and struck out three without walking a batter over six-plus innings to earn the win last Saturday over the Diamondbacks. Myers breezed through the first five innings, but then gave up two runs in the sixth and two more in the seventh in his final frame without getting an out. He still led with a 13-4 lead.

Myers has just one quality start over his last six outings, though he has a 31:9 K:BB over 32.1 innings in that span. Myers is now at a 3.07 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 115:33 K:BB through 126 innings over 24 appearances (23 starts) this year.

Myers relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, which checks in at an unimpressive 92.9 mph on average but moves like few other heaters in the sport. Myers’ four-seamer appears to rise on its way to the plate, ranking eighth among qualifying pitchers in terms of vertical movement above average. Compared to four-seamers thrown at similar velocities and release points, Myers’ fastball averages three extra inches of “rise” — enough to make a difference between a second-deck homer and a swing and a miss.

Pat Murphy

“He’s been great,” Manager said. “He’s shown his competitive fire. He’s been through so much that he knows, ‘OK, I’ve earned this.’ He’s listened to his teammates, he’s listened to his coaches, and he’s worked his tail off.”

What if we told you Tobias Myers has the second best ERA (2.22) in the NL since June 1 👀 pic.twitter.com/7XA1KH2PlR
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) September 14, 2024

Diamondbacks at Brewers Info

When: Thursday, 7:15 PM ET
Where: American Family Field
Pitchers (away/home): Brandon Pfaadt/Tobias Myers
TV: FOX, MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/