Guardians vs Rangers Wagerline MLB & Prediction

The Cleveland Guardians were expected to struggle this season after losing Manager Terry Francona to retirement and a few key pitchers to injury, but they lead the AL Central as they conclude a series at defending World Series champion Texas on Wednesday.

The Rangers are favored on the MLB odds behind Jon Gray.

MLB Picks Rangers -155, Guardians +135 (total 8.5)
Expert Prediction Rangers 5, Guardians 4

Cleveland Guardians Betting Odds +116

The Guardians remain without maybe their second-most important offensive player in leadoff hitter and outfielder Steven Kwan. He’s on the injured list with a hamstring strain and probably not back until early June if even then. Kwan was hitting .353 (47 for 133) with 28 runs, six doubles, two triples and three homers when he went on the injured list. Since then, the Guardians are hitting .206 and averaging 3.4 runs per game. Manager Stephen Vogt has been mixing and matching guys atop the lineup.

Reliever Sam Hentges was placed on the paternity list ahead of Monday’s game and will not return by Wednesday. After missing the bulk of the regular season due to injury, Hentges had appeared in three games for Cleveland. He has tossed 3.1 innings with a pair of strikeouts in limited action. Peter Strzelecki was recalled from Triple-A Columbus to take his spot.

Another reliever, Nick Sandlin, is thriving with the Guardians. He got out of a huge jam in Monday’s win. Sandlin’s velocity isn’t overpowering and he doesn’t have a high chase rate, but his whiff percentage is through the roof. The sidearmer has pounded the strike zone this year and has been rewarded with a 1.74 ERA in an MLB-leading 22 appearances.

“I think there’s a little deception from his arm angle,” Vogt said. “The ball has some life to it, too. It plays up from the velocity. [He also has] the sweeper and now that split. … The arm angle, the stuff, the deception, I think all of that plays into it.”

It’s veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco (2-3) on the hill Wednesday. Carrasco yielded five runs (three earned) on six hits over seven innings last Friday, striking out five and taking a loss against the White Sox. Carrasco held Chicago off the board until giving up three runs in the fifth inning, though two of those were unearned. He then served up back-to-back solo homers to Korey Lee and Paul DeJong in the seventh.

Despite generating only seven whiffs on 46 swings, Carrasco continuously created weak contact from the White Sox, with only six of his 24 batted balls allowed qualifying as hard-hit. Carrasco also maintained an efficiency not seen from some of his earlier outings this season, breezing through four innings on just 42 pitches.

“Velocity, it matters a little bit,” Carrasco said, “but if you look at the ball really good and you hit your spot, you’re going to be great. I just went over there and attacked the hitters.”

Carrasco didn’t allow a home run through his first four starts but has now been taken deep seven times in his last four outings. He has a 5.36 ERA with a 31:17 K:BB through 40.1 innings this season.

The Guardians have won or tied the season series in 9 of the last 10 years with Texas. Cleveland is in the midst of a stretch of 16 games in 16 days and gets a day off after Wednesday.

Texas Rangers Betting Odds -161

The Rangers had two top AL Rookie of the Year candidates entering the season in outfielders Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter but both are currently out injured. Langford is on the IL with a Grade 1 hamstring strain and still at only about 85-90% so he won’t be back until likely late next week at the earliest. Langford was selected by Texas with the No. 4 pick in last year’s draft out of the University of Florida. He broke camp with the Rangers after hitting .365 with six homers in 21 games during spring training. However, he was hitting just .224 with one home run — which was an inside-the-park homer — and 11 RBIs in 31 games in the Show this year.

Carter is not on the injured list as of this writing but might be when you read this as he saw a back specialist Monday. Some back soreness has kept him out since last Friday. Carter previously had a stress fracture in his back in 2021. He was terrific last season as a late callup but hitting just .216 with 5 home runs, 15 RBIs, 23 runs and 2 steals while striking out 37 times in 125 at-bats this season.

“I just don’t want to let it get to that point again,” Carter told reporters about his back. “I know what it felt like before, and I haven’t felt anything like that in the last couple of years. I’d rather miss a couple of games now and find out it’s all in my head, than let it get worse. Hopefully, I’m just being overly cautious.”

It’s righty Jon Gray (1-1) on the mound Wednesday. Gray did not factor into the decision last Friday against the Rockies, allowing one run on eight hits and one walk over six innings. He struck out seven. That lowered his season ERA to 2.36, and if you take out a rough season debut, he owns a 1.50 ERA across 42 innings.

Gray collected a quality start in his return to Coors Field after departing Colorado in free agency following the 2021 season. He racked up his third consecutive quality start with a 1.71 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 17:1 K:BB in 21 innings over that span.

His slider is sharp and the key to his repertoire; he threw it 56% of the time on Friday, generating 14 swings and misses. He mixed in his mid-90s fastball, and although he dealt with traffic most of the evening, he escaped trouble time and again.

“He’s stabilized this rotation with the job he’s doing and how consistent he’s been,” manager Bruce Bochy said. “… He’s been critical for our rotation with how much we’ve had to go through with guys going on the IL.”

Gray has gone 0-2 with a 5.49 ERA in four starts vs. Cleveland in his career, all with Texas. Last year, he was 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA in two outings. But in his last four home starts overall, Gray has gone 1-1, 1.27 and Rangers are 3-1 in those contests, the only loss being a 1-0 defeat on 4/11 vs. Oakland.

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Guardians at Rangers Info

When: Wednesday, 8:05 PM ET
Where: Globe Life Field
Pitchers (away/home): Carlos Carrasco/Jon Gray
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/