The Cleveland Guardians continue their push for the AL Central title on Thursday when they open a series against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays, whose streak of five straight playoff appearances will end this year.
The Guardians are favored on the MLB odds.
| Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Guardians -147, Rays +120 (total 7.5) Expert Prediction: Guardians 4, Rays 3 |
Tampa Bay Rays +120
What is it with Game 1s of a series for this franchise? The Rays have lost their past seven. Their 17-30 (.462) mark in openers is third worst in MLB, better than only the Marlins (13-34/.277) and White Sox (8-40/.167). Tampa Bay’s .215 batting average with RISP is the worst in the majors and would signal the worst full-season mark in club history, a record currently held by the 2011 team (.224).
Pete Fairbanks
The Rays remain without closer Fairbanks, who exited the Rays’ Aug. 18 game with an injury that an MRI exam later revealed as a lat strain. Manager Kevin Cash initially said Fairbanks would likely be shut down from throwing for two to four weeks. Fairbanks missed roughly half the season in 2022 after sustaining a lat strain in spring training, and it is unclear if he will be able to pitch again this season.
After the Mid-Season
Since the All-Star break, the Rays own the majors’ lowest bullpen ERA, at 2.56. Their relievers also rank among the league’s best in the second half in terms of strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.51, fourth), opponents’ average (.200, third), WHIP (1.03, second) and strand rate (82.2%, tied for first).
“It’s a testament to our organization to be able to identify talent, things that we might be able to rework here to figure out ways to optimize these guys as pitchers,” Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder said. “[Bullpen coach] Jorge Moncada does a fantastic job down there getting those guys ready to come in and perform as well as they have the past few months.”
Ryan Pepiot
It’s righty on the mound for the Rays on Thursday. Pepiot (8-6) earned the win against the Orioles last Saturday, allowing one run on six hits and two walks with four strikeouts over 5.1 innings. Pepiot tossed five scoreless frames before surrendering a solo home run to Cedric Mullins in the sixth.
Ryan Pepiot – Tampa Bay Rays Win, 5.1 IPs, 1 ER, 6 hits, 4 Ks, 2 BBs
— MLB Strikeout (@MLBStrikeout) September 7, 2024
The 27-year-old has allowed at least one homer in four consecutive starts but has yielded two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 outings overall. On the season, he owns a 3.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 118:40 K:BB across 113 innings. Despite a slightly elevated FIP of 4.26, which suggests some vulnerability, his low BABIP of .253 indicates that he’s been effective at suppressing hits.
Pepiot was acquired this off season in the package from the Dodgers for Tyler Glasnow and the Rays have turned Pepiot into a quality starter.
“If they were going to trade me away, they traded me to a great place. It’s been a blessing,” Pepiot said of the deal. “It’s been a big weight off your shoulders,” Pepiot said. “You don’t have to look over your shoulder, don’t have to worry about what’s next. If I throw the ball well, am I staying? If I don’t throw the ball well, am I going down?”
Pepiot is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA in two career appearances vs. Cleveland. He faced the Guardians on July 14 and threw six shutout innings, allowing two hits while striking out four in a win. Pepiot induced 12 whiffs on 45 swings for a 27 percent whiff rate and 26 percent CSW on the day.
^Cleveland Guardians -147
The Guardians easily won a series at the White Sox to open this week, Cleveland’s 27th series victory this season. The Guardians are 70-13 when scoring four runs or more, leading the MLB. They are 53-15 when scoring first this year and 68-29 when recording at least one home run. Cleveland is 13-49 (.210) when scoring 3-or-fewer runs.
The Record
Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez are seeking to become the first Cleveland duo to swipe 30-or-more bases each in the same year since Roberto Alomar (39SB) and Kenny Lofton (30SB) turned the trick in 2000. Ramirez has already gotten to 30, but Gimenez is a couple shy.
Gavin Williams
Williams takes the hill Thursday for Cleveland. He (3-8, 5.25 ERA) took the loss against the Dodgers last Saturday, allowing five runs on two hits and three walks over two-thirds of an inning. He did not record a strikeout. Williams had a start he’d like to forget, issuing three consecutive walks with one out in the first inning before then surrendering a ground-rule double along with a sacrifice fly and an RBI single to put Cleveland in an early hole.
Gavin did not make it through the frame and would end up being charged with a fifth run after being relieved by Pedro Williams, whose start was moved up at the last minute because of Alex Cobb’s blister issue, had plenty of velocity and didn’t give up a hard-hit ball, but he had control issues. It easily marked Williams’ shortest outing of the campaign and came after he hurled seven innings of one-run ball in his previous start, while it also marked his first start in which he failed to record a strikeout. Furthermore, Williams has now lost four of his last five starts.
“After kind of watching it and then processing, it kind of felt like Gavin came in a little amped up,” Manager Stephen Vogt said. “He was 98-99 [mph] the other night in Kansas City. He was kind of 95-97 [Saturday], just kind of overthrowing just a little bit and yanking the ball, and so he just didn’t have the command.”
Williams doesn’t have a decision with a 1.80 ERA in two career appearances vs. Tampa Bay. He faced the Rays on July 13 and allowed two runs (one earned) in five innings and got a no-decision in the Guardians’ 4-2 victory. Williams gave up three hits, walked three and struck out two.
Should Williams falter again, Cleveland’s bullpen leads MLB units in ERA (2.76), FIP (3.30), BAA (.205), OPS (.613), H/9 (6.64) and WHIP (1.07) in 2024.
^Rays at Guardians Info
When: Thursday, 7:15 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field
Pitchers (away/home): Ryan Pepiot/Gavin Williams
TV: FOX, MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: Fox Sports Go; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
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