NL Wild Card Game 3: Mets vs Brewers

Just one Wild Card Round series has reached a winner-take-all Game 3 this year, and that’s Thursday night’s New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers matchup, with the Brew Crew as short favorites on the MLB odds.

The winner will face Philadelphia in the NLDS.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Brewers -130, Mets +110 (total 7.5)
Expert Prediction: Mets 4, Brewers 3

Why Bet on New York?

It looked as if the Mets had Game 2 in the bag on Wednesday night, leading 3-2 entering the bottom of the eighth, but they allowed three runs in that inning and lost 5-3. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza had things set up to end the game just the way he wanted it: Ryne Stanek for the seventh, Phil Maton for the eighth and Edwin Díaz for the final three or four outs to nail down a trip to the NL Division Series. The Mets just never got there. Jackson Chourio opened the eighth inning with his second homer of the night, a game-tying shot off Maton, and Garrett Mitchell followed four batters later with a go-ahead, two-run homer.

“We’ve been knocked down and shown the ability to get back up all year,” Mendoza said after. “We got punched,” Mendoza said. “They’re a good ballclub. We’ll be ready to go.”

Pete Alonso

Perhaps if Alonso hadn’t tripped over his bat in the first inning, costing the Mets a run they sure could’ve used later on, things might’ve felt a little different with a two-run difference. This could be Alonso’s final game with the Mets, as he’s a pending free agent. Alonso hasn’t gone deep in 49 consecutive plate appearances — a significant departure from his career rate of one long ball every 16 trips to the plate. Since his last homer, Alonso is 5-for-38 (.132) with no extra-base hits, 13 strikeouts and just one RBI. Alonso continues to reach base regularly via walks, and he’s been playing well defensively at first base.

“Look, when you’re facing elite pitching staffs, it’s not going to be easy to hit balls out of the ballpark,” said Mendoza, who recently dropped Alonso to fifth in the lineup. “Pete, he’s a power hitter, and he’s just one swing away from hitting a big one. He’s got another opportunity (Thursday), and he’ll step up.”

Jose Quintana

It’s the veteran lefty on the mound here. Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA) allowed two runs in 4 1/3 innings with nine strikeouts in a loss to the Brewers last Saturday. Both runs came in the fourth inning on a single by Joey Ortiz that gave Milwaukee a 2-0 lead, and that was ultimately enough to allow the southpaw to pick up the loss. With the Mets dominated by the Milwaukee bullpen. While there was some traffic, Quintana pitched well with the nine strikeouts, raising his season total to 135 with an ERA of 3.75. In a season-ending sprint, the veteran allowed just three earned runs in his final 36 ¹/₃ innings (0.74 ERA), elevating his status from an October bullpen option to now owning the most critical start of the Mets season.

The winningest Colombian pitcher in MLB history, Quintana has a brief postseason history. Most of it came in 2017 with the Cubs, when Quintana produced a 1.59 ERA in three outings before struggling by allowing six runs in his fourth. When Quintana returned to the playoffs five years later with the Cardinals, he blanked the Phillies over 5 1/3 innings in Wild Card Series Game 1.

“It is a privilege to get this opportunity, pitching for the season one more time,” Quintana said.

Now, only two Wild Card Series have gone to a decisive Game 3 since Major League Baseball moved to its current format in 2022. The Mets have been involved in both, losing in ‘22 to the Padres.

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Why Bet on Milwaukee?

With the Brewers in deep trouble in Game 2 on Wednesday in the bottom of the eighth inning, rookie sensation Jackson Chourio tied the game with his second homer of the night and Garrett Mitchell delivered a two-run shot later in the inning to give the Brewers the 5-3 win. They will attempt to become the first team to win a best-of-three Wild Card Series after losing the opener since MLB went to this expanded playoff format in 2022.

Jackson Chourio

With his leadoff home run in the bottom of the first inning after New York had led 1-0 and then that second shot Mets setup man Phil Maton to erase a 3-2 deficit, Chourio became the second player in Major League history to hit two game-tying homers in a postseason game. The other was Babe Ruth in Game 4 of the 1928 World Series. Chourio joined the Rays’ Evan Longoria as the only rookies to hit multiple game-tying or go-ahead homers in the same postseason game. Longoria did it in Game 1 of the 2008 AL Division Series.

Garrett Mitchell

Mitchell, who entered the game as a pinch-runner in the sixth inning and didn’t get to bat until the eighth, when he got his chance thanks to Willy Adames working back from an 0-2 count to hit a single that kept the inning alive with two outs.

“You dream of moments like that,” Mitchell said. “You want to be in those situations. Those are the kinds of things you look at when you’re in the backyard.”

Tobias Myers

It’s the rookie (9-6) on the mound tonight. Myers picked up a win while throwing four scoreless innings against the Mets last Saturday. Myers worked behind an opener in Jared Koenig, and worked well. The 26-year-old gave up just one hit, didn’t walk anyone and struck out five. That lowers his ERA on the season to 3.00, while improving his K/BB to 127/36 over 138 innings.

Myers has been fantastic for the Brewers this year, particularly in the second half, putting up a 2.86 ERA in 12 starts. This from a guy who was 1-15 with a 7.82 ERA just two years ago in the minors. This from a guy who was 1-15 with a 7.82 ERA just two years ago in the minors. Myers’ signature pitch is a riding fastball at the top of the zone, and for much of the summer he was Milwaukee’s most reliable starter. He doesn’t throw a lot of innings, though: It has been three weeks since he threw more than four innings. So don’t be surprised if the Brewers throw an opener into the mix at the last moment.

Mets at Brewers Info

When: Thursday, 7 PM ET
Where: American Family Field
Pitchers (away/home): Jose Quintana/Tobias Myers
TV: ESPN
Stream/game day audio: ESPN+