Mets vs Dodgers National League Championship Series Prediction & Game 4 Odds

The New York Mets pursued Japanese free-agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto this off season but lost out thanks to a gigantic offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

And now Yamamoto faces the Mets in Game 4 of the NLCS from Citi Field on Thursday night, with L.A. as a favorite on the MLB odds to take a 3-1 series lead.

Why Bet on Los Angeles?

The Dodgers dominated the Mets in a shutout in Game 1 and did the same in Game 3 on Wednesday, winning 8-0 for a 2-1 NLCS lead – LA’s fourth shutout in its past five games. The Dodgers are the first team in postseason history with at least three shutout wins of seven or more runs in a single postseason.

Los Angeles jumped out to an early lead as Will Smith knocked an RBI single in the second inning and Teoscar Hernández came around to score on a sacrifice fly from Tommy Edman to make it 2-0. The Dodgers are now 71-16 when scoring first this season and have been dominant when leading.

After six innings, going 77-11 when leading after six innings; 79-8 when leading after seven innings; and 87-4 when leading after eight innings.

Max Muncy

Third baseman Muncy went deep in the ninth for his 13th career postseason homer, tying Corey Seager and Justin Turner for the franchise record. Muncy also connected in Game 2. He’s currently 4-for-8 with two homers and five walks in the NLCS.

Max’s 13th postseason homer ties a franchise record. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/VRfdlXaf78

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 17, 2024

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani hit a three-run homer and walked in Game 3. Ohtani’s homer off Tyler Megill in the eighth put away what had been a 4-0 game. It was his first homer since he came through in his first at-bat in the NLDS against the Padres. He’s 3-for-11 BB in the NLCS after winding up 4-for-20 in the NLDS. Ohtani has 17 hits in his last 20 at-bats with runners in scoring position dating to the regular season. Nobody had ever tallied 17 hits in any span of 20 at-bats with runners in scoring position — regular season and postseason. It was a Dodger who’d come closest. Frank Howard had a pair of 16-for-19 sprees for the Dodgers in 1962. The Dodgers’ 13 homers in these playoffs are most of any team.

Michael Kopech

“I’m just impressed with this club in general. It’s been a lot of fun to be a part of,” said Dodgers reliever Kopech. “The offense does what they’re gonna do. We know what they’re capable of. But to be able to come in and kind of help shut the door and give them a little bit of breathing room, and have them do the same for us, it’s been huge.”

The Hommers

Kike Hernández and Ohtani joined Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández and Muncy with multiple home runs this postseason, marking the most Dodgers with multiple round-trippers in a single postseason since nine players had multiple home runs during the 2020 Postseason. Five of the Dodgers’ 13 home runs in these playoffs have come with two outs, which are tied with the Padres for the most in October this year. The Dodgers 13 homers are now the most of any club this postseason, surpassing the Padres’ 11 blasts.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

It’s righty Yamamoto on the mound for New York. The Japanese rookie was one of the Dodger placeholders in the rotation, making 18 starts despite missing over two months with shoulder inflammation. In his first season in the majors, he finished the season 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 90.0 innings.

He struggled in his first start of the NLDS vs. San Diego but threw five scoreless innings and got the win in the Dodgers’ 2-0 victory over the Padres in Game 5 of the NLDS last Friday. He became the fifth Dodger ever to toss a scoreless start of 5.0+ innings in a winner-take-all postseason game, joining Orel Hershiser (1988 NLCS G7), Jerry Reuss (1981 NLDS G5), Sandy Koufax (1965 WS G7) and Johnny Podres (1955 WS G7).

Yamamoto gave up two hits, walked one and struck out two. In one of the biggest games in the history of Japanese baseball, one that featured Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish, Yamamoto set the tone for the Dodgers early on. It was clear from the first inning that Yamamoto was much sharper than he was in Game 1 when he allowed five runs. This will be Yamamoto’s first road start in the postseason.

He made one previous start against the Mets on April 19, throwing 6.0 innings and allowing three earned runs on seven hits while striking out a career-high nine batters.

Why Bet on New York?

The Mets looked totally flat in the 8-0 loss on Wednesday in their first home ALCS matchup since 2015. The Mets managed only four hits (all were singles) against Walker Buehler and the Dodgers’ bullpen in getting shut out for the second time in three games. New York’s Luis Severino allowed two unearned runs over 4 ²/₃ innings on three hits and four walks, with three strikeouts. It was the first time in three starts this postseason that Severino, who threw 95 pitches, failed to pitch six innings. The Dodgers scored two unearned runs in the second after Francisco Alvarez’s throwing error to second base on Teoscar Hernandez’s squib put runners on first and second with nobody out.

Francisco Alvarez

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza says he will keep Alvarez in the lineup despite struggling. He had that poor throw that lead to two unearned errors and at the plate, Alvarez struck out in all three of his at-bats, including a large one in the second inning, to fall to 5-for-35 (.143) without an extra-base hit, with 13 strikeouts and just one walk in the postseason.

Manager Carlos Mendoza

“I think offensively, he’s in between,” Manager said. “I think he’s late making his move, which is not allowing him to make some good swing decisions. That’s why you see him at times taking the fastball or late on the fastball and then chasing.”

Mendoza has reason to remain optimistic overall tonight. In Game 1 on Sunday, the Mets looked even less vibrant at the plate, mustering only three singles. Their manager wrote out the exact same lineup card the next day, and they responded with six runs in the first two innings of Game 2 in a victory.

“The guys that are in there got us to this point,” Mendoza said. “And I’m pretty confident they’ll come through.”

Jose Quintana

It’s lefty Quintana on the mound here. He was 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA during the regular season. Quintana allowed only an unearned run over five innings last Wednesday in a no-decision in Game 4 against the Phillies, a game the Mets won. The run probably ought to have been earned, but the official scorer assumed Mark Vientos would throw Bryce Harper out at the plate on a slow roller he bobbled. Regardless, Quintana was exceptional in allowing just two hits, walking two and striking out six.

Jose Quintana in the 2024 postseason:

11.0 IP
0.00 ERA
11 K

He has been spectacular. pic.twitter.com/EfTXlCPs6H

— MetsMuse (@MetsMuse) October 10, 2024

There might not be a pitcher in the majors in better form than Quintana, who has produced an 0.57 ERA over his last eight starts, including one in each of the previous two postseason rounds. The Mets considered starting Quintana in Game 3 but opted to go with Severino. Quintana did lose his lone start this year vs. the Dodgers.

In all best-of-seven postseason series that have been tied 1-1, the team winning Game 3 has gone on to win the series 69 of 100 times (69%). Under the current 2-3-2 format, teams breaking a 1-1 tie by winning Game 3 on the road have gone on to win the series 30 of 40 times (75%).

How to Watch Dodgers at Mets

When: Thursday, 8:08 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
Pitchers (away/home): Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Jose Quintana
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream/game day audio: Fox Sports Live

MLB Betting Center

---

Updated MLB Odds | Sportsbook Online

mybookie App Download App

Download Remind me later