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After two games in Denver, the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves Western Conference first-round series shifts to Minnesota, where the Timberwolves will look to erase a 2-0 series deficit. Tip off for Game 3 on Friday is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET.

Denver, which won Game 1 109-80 on Sunday, faced a little more resistance on Wednesday night but still escaped with a 122-113 win. The Nuggets outscored the Timberwolves 35-24 in the fourth quarter to secure the victory.

Keep reading for NBA betting lines, analysis, and a free pick for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.

2023 NBA Playoffs Round 1 Game 3 Denver vs. Minnesota Betting Preview

Odds: Nuggets -2.5 | Nuggets -140, Timberwolves +120 | O/U 223
When: Friday, April 21, 2023 at 9:30 pm ET
Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV / Streaming: ESPN

Why Bet on Nuggets versus Timberwolves?

Denver shot 54 percent from the field on Wednesday night on 46-of-85 shooting, including 10-of-22 from three-point range.

Jamal Murray led the team in scoring with 40 points. He has just four career 40-point games in the regular season but has a history of showing up in the playoffs.

Murray helped the Denver Nuggets beat the Utah Jazz in the first round of the 2020 playoffs in "the bubble," scoring 50, 42, and 50 points in consecutive games.

Nikola Jokic has also been a major factor for Denver, recording 27-9-9 in Wednesday’s victory. Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Jeff Green all chipped in with double-digit points.

Denver finished 12th in the NBA in points per game this season (115.8) and had the 14th-best defensive rating (114.9) in the league. They were just 19-22 on the road this season and 34-7 at home.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Averages

Points/G: 115.8
FG %: 57.3
3PT %: 31.2
FT %: 75.1
Rebounds/G: 51.0

Denver Nuggets Defensive Averages

Points/G: 112.1
FG %: 54.2
3PT %: 33.1
FT %: 77.4
Rebounds/G: 48.2

Why Bet on Timberwolves versus Nuggets?

Minnesota showed more life in Game 2 but was still unable to overcome the fourth-quarter heroics of Murray and the rest of the Nuggets. The team shot 50 percent from the field, including 14-of-31 from three-point range, but simply couldn’t contain the Nuggets’ best players when it mattered most at the end of the game.

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 41 points after being limited to just 18 points on 6-of-15 shooting in Game 1.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are still reeling from the fallout of the sidelines altercation between Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson, which could impact the team’s chemistry ahead of a pivotal Game 3.

They had the worst home-court record of any Western Conference playoff team this season at just 22-19. In fact, four non-playoff teams in the West had a better home-court record than Minnesota.

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Averages

Points/G: 115.2
FG %: 55.9
3PT %: 33.4
FT %: 75.7
Rebounds/G: 49.9

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Averages

Points/G: 115.5
FG %: 53.9
3PT %: 33.3
FT %: 76.8
Rebounds/G: 52.3

Denver at Minnesota Betting Trends

In the Nuggets’ 82 games this year, they have 44 wins against the spread
Against the spread, the Timberwolves are 39-41-2 this year
Minnesota has covered the spread twice this year when underdogs by 8.5 points or more (in four chances)
The Timberwolves are 5-5 against the spread and 6-4 overall in their past 10 contests
The Nuggets have a 6-4 record against the spread while going 5-5 overall over their last 10 games
In the Nuggets’ past 10 contests, they have gone over the total twice
Against the spread, the Timberwolves are 39-41-2 this year
Three of the Timberwolves’ past 10 outings have gone over the total

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards, Taurean Prince, Mike Conley, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert

Injuries

Denver Nuggets
Collin Gillespie (Lower Leg – out)

Minnesota Timberwolves
Jaden McDaniels (Hand – out), Naz Reid (Wrist – out)

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds and Prediction

Denver is a -8.5 favorite on the road and has -384 ML odds. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are +8.5 underdogs with +295 ML odds. The over/under is 223.5.

Out of all the series in the first round, this had the most potential to be a sweep, and it’s certainly shaping up that way, especially considering Minnesota has the worst home-court advantage of any Western Conference playoff team.

That said, eight points is a lot to give a home team in essentially a must-win game. The Timberwolves +8.5 (-110) is the best value and most attractive bet for Friday night’s game.

NBA Playoffs Round 1 Prediction: Timberwolves +8.5 | Bet Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game